Tuesday, October 28, 2008

The Good News and the Bad Tues. Oct. 28

The good news is that the dow went up over 800 points today. If it keeps going up like this and stays up over 10,000 for a month then it is very likely that the recession will end within 6 months. Because the stock market tends to predict the end of a recession 6 months in advance of the end.

The bad news is that unemployment will likely go to 8% nationwide across the U.S. between now and the end of the recession if it is signaled by a rising and maintaining above 10,000 Dow.

If all this happens then maybe just maybe it won't be as bad as most of us thought. However, we are not at the beginning of the end just the end of the beginning when that happens. Much of the world may not recover soon or at all because they just don't have the infrastructure or adaptability or the possibility of quick thinking and decision making like the United States does in some Crises. I think I agree the world will never feel quite the same as it did in the 1990s or the 2000s ever again.

New mechanisms have to be developed now that can actually work regarding credit and money world wide. If these new mechanisms are not developed quickly now and implemented it will be worse next time. Of that you can be sure!

No comments: