Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Systemic Insurance collapse: AIG

There does not appear to be the political will in the United States to continue to support an obviously collapsing AIG.

The collapse of AIG began with Lehman brothers. When it was allowed to fail it caused multiple Credit Default Swaps worth billions and billions of dollars to come due. This has caused a systemic cascade of insurance policies and credit default swaps to come due.

I don't believe it is possible to prevent a systemic collapse of the world's insurance market unless ALL countries prop up AIG. America neither has the will or likely the resources to prop up AIG any longer.

The unthinkable has arrived I believe. Insurance has to be let go of for now. The biggest problem this might cause is the requirement by cities, states, municipalities, companies, corporations worldwide to have insurance. It is possible all these insurance requirements might have to be waived for now because I don't see a way at present for the U.S. Government to keep on bailing out the biggest insurance company that is failing because the insurance payouts are in a geometrically increasing cascade worldwide. America cannot force this company to be viable. The systemic collapse of the world insurance business as far as AIG is concerned is I believe inevitable. I think accepting the loss of multiple kinds of insurance, however unthinkable, must be allowed to happen in order to keep countries, especially the U.S. financially viable.

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