Wednesday, February 2, 2011

2nd and 3rd World Governments in Collapse

When the present economic downturn started around 2007 and 2008 many pundits predicted that it would come to this. Simply because not enough people would be able to view what is happening globally on an economic level in a sophisticated way enough because of lack of education to not just blame their governments for everything. As a result it was predicted that governments (especially 2nd and 3rd world governments) might collapse into chaos.  And the problem in many of these situations like Egypt is that all opposition parties have been mostly disbanded, put in prison or exiled or killed. So, in places like Egypt there IS no opposition leadership. So, the opposition since it has no leader is in some ways like a chicken with its head cut off (in other words dysfunctional). So, since all potential leadership for new movements has been created leaderless, new movements wind up in a vacuum or a state of chaos like we see in Egypt. For example, El Baradei has great standing as an opposition leader but won't likely represent enough people to actually be the leader. I think Mubarak left El Baradei alone all this time because he knew that El Baradei's status wouldn't take him to replacing Mubarak in the end. In the end even though he is 82, Mubarak is also an ex General of the military there and still thinks like one which is why he has stayed in power 30 years.

Most of the people opposing Mubarak tend to be theoretical (as in young college graduates or students) as opposed to being people who have suffered enough in life to become pragmatists. I think here are some of the problems with the present (revolution) in Egypt being successful (at least in it's present form). It is simply too big a country for simple solutions to its problems. Whoever the leader will be he must be a pragmatist and possibly have a military background to create any kind of order and hopefully democracy in Egypt.

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