Monday, June 4, 2012
Syria is a no win situation for anyone
In a Proxy war like Syria both minority and majority Syrians can only lose. First, you have Assad that is caught between a rock and a hard place. Though I don't think he will wind up like Qaddhafi, he is very unlikely now to come to a good end. The majority Sunnis of the entire middle east likely will watch as Iranians and Iranian and Russian weapons kill civilians in Syria more and more. And nations like Turkey, Lebanon and other places with Sunni and Shia and other majorities and minorities will see the sectarian violence spread into their countries. Russia and China and Iran find themselves aligned (for good or ill) with Assad. NATO finds itself aligned with Sunnis throughout the middle East and against Iran. However, NATO remembers vividly the Cold War and doesn't want another one with Russia and China. But NATO would love a Cold War with Iran which they are now engaged in in multiple ways. This whole thing gets crazier for everyone involved by the day. It is sort of a world wide "Damned if you do and damned if you don't". Everyone loses no matter how anyone plays this. And one doesn't see Assad living through this at all unless he is living in Iran, Russia or China in the end.