Thursday, September 20, 2012

What I have learned from the News

First of all it is very helpful for me to have now 64 years of studying U.S. and World news because it helps me actually make more sense of what is happening than for people who don't have that kind of experience yet.

In regard to Syria the best example would be if Assad controlled a few castles in a feudal empire but the people had basically turned against him. So, he has the minority Alawite Shias supporting him and other minorities who might feel more safe under his rule who only give him lip service to stay alive themselves. But he has lost All Sunni Muslim People in All Sunni Muslim Countries in the Middle east (which is the majority of Muslims in the Middle east). So, the Syrian rebels basically have an unlimited amount of rebel soldiers coming in from literally all Sunni Muslim countries to fight against Assad. So, Assad is sort of only in Military bases and castle like fortifications and only controlling advanced military hardware but not enough soldiers really to ever take back Syria with anything but Chemical Weapons. And any use of chemical weapons would bring in NATO, Russia and China to stop their use by anyone.

So, though with Russia's and Iran's help Assad might hold out in Syria for days, weeks or even years, eventually the Assad Government will be forced to end by the rebels Sunni volunteer Soldiers from throughout the middle Eastern Sunni Nations and NATO support in the form of food, and other resources. Assad now only controls Citadels but has completely lost the countryside. So, in some ways the rebels only have to wait and to starve Assad and his government out by bringing down planes bringing in food. Because most roads are now controlled by the Rebels so likely the only way to bring in food to cities likely is becoming more and more cargo planes.

In regard to China and Japan what I have learned is that things are really difficult for people in Japan and China in order for their governments to allow this much anger being directed by their people through manipulation of the medias over the islands bought by Japan near Taiwan. Though by accident this all could easily turn into a war between Japan and China I think other nations are trying to calm both nations down because it wouldn't really be in anyone's interests especially China to engage in warfare outside of China. The main reason for this is that China is such a big and diverse nation and because it has to spend incredible resources to keep parts of China from spinning off into other countries all the time. ANY kind of war would lead to the breakup of China in reality and not in theory into 2 or more countries because of the 50,000 civil conflicts in regions of China every year now. And Japan cannot really afford to get into a war with China because China has a really big army and Japan has a big Navy but no real Army anymore after World War II.

So, if 100,000 or 200,000 Chinese paratroopers landed all over Japan I'm not sure how Japan would deal with this. But, if China did this it's own country likely would fall apart in the process. So, in the end it is not in either country's best interests to actually come to blows except for a neighborly shouting match.

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