Former co-chairman of the president's debt commission is discouraged by the slow pace of negotiations.


2:25PM EST November 28. 2012 - WASHINGTON -- Erskine Bowles, the former co-chairman of President Obama's debt commission, is pessimistic that Washington will avoid going over the "fiscal cliff" at the end of the year.
"I think the probability is we're going over the cliff," Bowles told reporters at a Wednesday roundtable hosted by The Christian Science Monitor.
To do so would be "insane," Bowles said. However, he forecast only a one-third probability that Obama and a divided Congress can agree on a budget deal that raises revenues and cuts spending. "One without the other won't work," he said.
VIDEO: Watch Erskine Bowles discuss the looming 'fiscal cliff'
Bowles said he was discouraged by the slow pace of the negotiations, the ongoing differences between the two parties and a dwindling legislative calendar.
MORE: Obama sells budget plan to middle class, business leaders
Former Sen. Alan Simpson, R-Wyo., who chaired Obama's debt commission with Bowles, said he was discouraged by the cynicism in Washington and the role of outside interest groups. "The sad part is when you have leaders in both parties throwing out, casting out in to the waters the bait for the trout that says, 'Maybe it would help the Democrats that we go off the cliff' and the other side, 'Maybe it would help the Republicans if we go off the cliff' and I will tell you ladies and gentleman that is like betting your country," he said.
Simpson said it would take political courage for lawmakers to come to an agreement that threatens to anger powerful outside interests. "As long as we are in the thrall of [anti-tax advocate] Grover Norquist and the AARP it's going to be rough, long haul," he said.
Bowles attended a Tuesday meeting at the White House with Obama and business leaders. He said the president showed some flexibility in his insistence that tax rates on the wealthy revert back to Clinton-era rates."I didn't sense it, I heard it," he said.
"The White House really believes at its core that revenue ought to come from the wealthy," Bowles said, but added that the president is open to GOP proposals that also include revenue sources from closing loopholes and capping deductions as long as rates are in the mix. Bowles said it was clear that no deal could be reached unless Republicans relent on their opposition for individual rate increases for the wealthiest of Americans.
Only one House Republican, Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., has publicly said that the GOP should accept a deal that extends the tax rates for 98% of Americans, according to a Politico report.
Bowles also met Wednesday with corporate executives and House Republican leaders to continue his efforts to reach a deal. "I'm for getting a deal done and getting it done today," he said. "I'm hopeful but, boy, I wouldn't put me down as optimistic."
Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein, who attended the meeting, offered a more optimistic outlook for a deal following the confab, but he echoed Bowles' view that both parties will need to challenge orthodoxy. "Both sides need to compromise. It has to be a balanced approach. This is not a question of one side is right and one side is wrong, good versus evil. Both sides are right, both sides are trying to do whats in the best interest of the country as each of them see it," he said, "People have to yield on things that they are quite convicted about."

end quote from:

Bowles pessimistic about avoiding 'fiscal cliff'

Actually this is very logical. Until we go over the fiscal cliff people all over the U.S. won't know how it actually will effect them. By actually doing it it will enrage the masses and force changes to everything legally. However, the real problem with this is that under a circumstance like this "Good Decisions" usually don't get made because decisions under pressure are often the wrong ones. However, as people are hit with the consequences (including the military) of actually going over the fiscal cliff, the rioting in the streets likely will commence, so it is difficult to see something good for anyone coming from this kind of exercise.

Later:

 However, just like the author of the above article said as long a Grover Norquist and the AARP are involved the way things are regarding special interests all over the place, neither the Democrats or the Republicans feel free to make the deals and compromises necessary to not fall off the cliff. If we fall off the cliff is that the end? It could be the end of the United States eventually by doing this because we haven't done something exactly like this before. The other possibility is that the U.S. could default on some or all of it's debts like many countries have done before. The problem with that is those nations aren't usually trusted by other nations who might lend more in the future for a long long time. So, there are many long term consequences to almost any decision made by anyone both to do something or to do nothing.