Egypt Is Warned of 'Collapse'
Wall Street Journal-2 hours ago
Egypt's army chief warned that the state could collapse if the latest political crisis roiling the nation drags on, but also defended the right of ...
Egypt Is Warned of 'Collapse'
Military Chief Signals That Army Could Act to End Unrest Sweeping Country
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By MATT BRADLEY and BILL SPINDLE in Cairo and JAY SOLOMON in Washington
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Associated Press
Protesters celebrate the capture of a state security vehicle in Cairo Tuesday.
While few observers believe the military is eager to return to the political spotlight, the burst of unrest since last week has dealt a blow to the flagging economy and led President Mohammed Morsi to impose an emergency law in three cities that has further unnerved Egyptians.
Egypt's army chief warned that the state
could collapse if the latest political crisis roiling the nation drags
on, but also defended the right of people to protest. Matt Bradley has
the latest on The News Hub. Photo: Reuters.
While few observers believe the Egyptian
military is eager to return to the political spotlight, the burst of
rioting since last week has led to the re-imposition of emergency law in
three cities, unnerved Egyptians and dealt another blow to the flagging
economy. Hani Sabra, Eurasia Group Egypt analyst, joins The News Hub.
Photo: AP.
The comments came amid continued chaos across the country. Clashes between protesters and police in Cairo prompted the U.S. Embassy to suspend services Tuesday, as thousands of mourners for victims of recent violence in the restive city of Port Said chanted for Mr. Morsi's downfall.
European Pressphoto Agency
Egyptian protesters in Suez, about 93 miles east of Cairo, Egypt, on Monday.
Egyptian Turmoil
"This is a dangerous situation of continuous confrontation," said Amr Moussa, a leader of the opposition National Salvation Front, of the general's comments. "It was a warning and an appeal at the same time."
Gen. Sissi said the army would protect the Suez Canal, around which many of the recent riots have taken place. The canal is a crucial waterway for global commerce and a major source of foreign currency.
Egypt's economy was teetering on the brink of collapse even before the recent violence, which has killed at least 50 people.
The fraught, two-year-long transition after three decades of authoritarian rule has frightened off foreign investors and tourists and depleted Egypt's reserves. After two years of defending the pound, Egypt has about $15 billion in foreign reserves—enough for three months of imports.
A Wave of Protests in Egypt
Mohamed Abd El Ghany/Reuters
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A protester stood in front of a burning riot police vehicle on the Kasr Elnile bridge in Cairo Monday.
But Egypt's increasingly divisive politics could still scuttle the deal just as the economy faces the brink of collapse. The IMF may hope to see a political consensus over the loan's terms, which would include unpopular measures such as tax increases and cuts to energy subsidies.
"When a country is divided like it is now, it leaves very little room for making changes," said Ahmed Heikal, the founder and chairman of Citadel Capital, Egypt's largest private-equity firm. "The train is headed toward the cliff and we're still arguing about who should be the conductor."
The general's words also recall the military's actions during the first days of Egypt's revolution two years ago, when a council of generals stepped in to lead the country after protests forced former President Hosni Mubarak to resign. The military's ensuing 17-month rule was marred by violent protests and instability.
"It wasn't a threat to anyone," said Sameh Saif Al Yazal, a retired general and director of the government-funded Al Gomhouria Center for Political and Strategic Studies, of the speech. "It was a message that he wants to send to everybody that we are going in a very, very bad direction if we go ahead this way."
The weekend of violence has laid bare the Brotherhood's growing unpopularity on the Egyptian street—an area the powerful Islamist group has always considered its political base. The National Salvation Front is considering discussing the crisis with the hard-line Islamist Al Nour Party, which have many of the same criticisms of the president and could isolate Mr. Morsi's Islamist backers, said Mr. Moussa, a former diplomat and one-time presidential candidate.
The past weekend has tested Mr. Morsi's ability to contain escalating unrest. Nationwide clashes began Friday when thousands of demonstrators marched against Mr. Morsi and his Islamist allies to mark the second anniversary of Egypt's revolution. The rallies turned into riots that killed at least 11 people in Suez, which sits at the mouth of the Suez Canal waterway, on Friday.
The following morning, a Cairo court handed out death sentences for 21 soccer fans in the coastal city of Port Said who were accused of killing 73 people in a post-match melee last February. Following the verdict, Port Said residents lashed out at police and state institutions—attacking the prison that housed the convicts and laying siege to other government buildings with Molotov cocktails.
On Sunday, unknown gunmen attacked a funeral for victims of the previous day's violence. By Monday, more than 50 people had died.
Mr. Morsi appeared to stoke even more outrage Sunday when he imposed an emergency law and a curfew on Suez, Port Said and the nearby city of Ismailia.
In a snub to Mr. Morsi, thousands of Egyptians walked the streets of the three cities after the curfew began on Monday evening. Residents sang, danced and played soccer in the streets in defiance of his order.
On Tuesday, Mr. Morsi's office defended the need for the state of emergency and explained its legality. The emergency law "will be lifted once the situation has stabilized in the aforementioned cities, even if that happens before the expiration of the thirty days specified in the decree," said a statement.
As the violence has spiraled, the Obama administration has taken a cautious stance toward Cairo, refusing to publicly condemn Mr. Morsi's actions.
U.S. officials in recent days have continued to commit Washington to support nearly $500 million in bilateral economic assistance for Egypt in 2013, as well as the IMF loan. The Obama administration also has come out in favor of continuing a proposed sale of F-16 fighter jets to the Egyptian military.
The White House and State Department, rather than criticizing Mr. Morsi, have urged Egypt's opposition parties to take up his call for a national dialogue to help stem the violence.
"We have been gratified to see the president and his government renew their call for a national dialogue to avoid further violence," State Department spokeswoman, Victoria Nuland, said Monday. "We call on all political forces in Egypt to avail themselves of this opportunity."
This stance is increasingly drawing criticism from Washington's Arab allies, as well as many Egypt analysts, who believe the U.S. is abetting a larger power grab by Mr. Morsi and his political party, the Muslim Brotherhood.
These diplomats and analysts said they expected either President Barack Obama or Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to publicly call for restraint by Cairo, rather than relying on statements and spokesmen.
They said the U.S. should more directly comment on how the Egyptian government's policies are curtailing hopes in the West that Mr. Morsi will push forward with political and economic reforms.
"And people wonder why the U.S. appears to be in bed with the Muslim Brotherhood?" said one senior Arab official whose government is worried about the Islamists' growing hold of power in Cairo.
The official said the U.S. reluctance to criticize the Egyptian government has been discussed with the administration "more than any other subject we've discussed in the last two months. We have agreed to disagree."
Still, if the violence in Egypt continues, or the military takes steps to increase its power, many Mideast experts think the Obama administration will have to take a more aggressive line on Egypt in coming weeks, even if it won't significantly change events on the ground. These analysts said Mr. Obama at least will need to establish a marker on what the U.S. will accept in Egypt, particularly as it will send a broader message to the region.
"My overall sense is that the administration is discovering that its overall leverage in Egypt isn't what people think," said Steven Cook, an Egypt specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations. "Still, we should be able to signal that we're going to speak out and speak out forcefully."
A version of this article appeared January 30,
2013, on page A1 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with
the headline: Egypt Is Warned of 'Collapse'.
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