Saturday, February 16, 2013

North African Political Vacuum: Cairo to Tunis

The importance of stabilizing Libya

Politico - ‎Feb 14, 2013‎
TRIPOLI, Libya - From Cairo on the Nile to Tunis on the Mediterranean, a political vacuum has descended across North Africa.

The importance of stabilizing Libya


Friday marks the second anniversary of the anti-Qadhafi uprising, the authors write. | AP Photo
TRIPOLI, Libya — From Cairo on the Nile to Tunis on the Mediterranean, a political vacuum has descended across North Africa. The Arab Spring ushered in new freedoms, but it also weakened existing state structures and unleashed a cultural and political free-for-all, favorable to mobilization, assassinations and propagation of extremist ideology. The region’s newly elected governments are rapidly failing to produce results, put aside internecine bickering or form grand coalitions. Despite their democratic legitimacy, they are losing the consent of their populations. Amid this chaos, North Africa’s Saharan underbelly, the Sahel, is on the verge of replacing the Afghanistan/Pakistan border as the major global safe haven for terrorist networks. Libya is both at the root of these problems and the key to the solution.
The spread of Salafist and jihadist groups, the war in Mali and the recent terrorist attack in Algeria are all direct consequences of the overthrow of Muammar Qadhafi. Paradoxically, international action in support of the Libyan people led to this whole mess, yet it is also the key to resolving it.

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At present, Libya’s new central government is so weak that swaths of the country are ungoverned space — local authorities mediate disputes and the revolutionary militias dominate what few security institutions exist. Radicalized jihadists come and go as they please and heavy artillery from Qadhafi’s stockpiles is sold to the highest bidder.
Until very recently, the post-Qadhafi Libyan government lacked the legitimacy, will or power to demobilize the revolutionary militias or secure the country’s borders. Fortunately, in the wake of successful elections, one man has emerged who is capable of rationalizing Libya’s institutions and securing its future: Prime Minister Ali Zidan.
Politically, Zidan has to contend with an ongoing power struggle against Mohamed Magariaf, the president of Libya’s parliament — the General National Congress. The president was supposed to be a ceremonial position, yet Magariaf is deliberately exceeding his hazily defined authority to play Libya’s deep social cleavages to his advantage.
On Feb. 6, members of the GNC announced that the constitutional committee will be directly elected by the Libyan people. Each region will select 20 deputies. This undoes the GNC’s original mandate, while facilitating a drift toward federalism. It also expands the influence of the president while inflaming social tensions. Many Libyans are now ready to join their brothers in Tunisia and Egypt by declaring their new regime a failure.
Friday marks the second anniversary of the anti-Qadhafi uprising. The Libyan government is bracing for huge demonstrations and attacks on government buildings, especially in Benghazi.
To help Zidan bring stability, win back the trust of his people and cement his legitimate authority against Magarief’s overreach, a new international coalition must help the Libyan government construct a coherent security apparatus. On Tuesday, representatives of the major Arab and Western powers — including the U.S. — met in Paris under the aegis of the Support Libya conference and finally agreed to “the rapid deployment of European experts” to train and rebuild Libyan security forces. To be effective, the whole process must be initiated, owned and managed by the Libyans, while building upon the international community’s role as guarantors of the Libyan revolution.
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I don't think the vacuum is actually a fault of the people of these countries. Rather I believe the fault is only overpopulation of those areas with over half of the people under 30 years of age without potential jobs basically because of a lack of resources in those areas. 50% unemployment among the under 30 crowd begins to bring down governments. Serious destabilization begins at around 25% and as unemployment increases and when enough young people cannot marry or move on governments fall. And some form of light destabilization begins around 10% to 20% unemployment within any country. Unfortunately, because of worldwide overpopulation this likely will increase in nations without enough resources of various kinds to employ their people so they can have a life and family.

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