Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Israel Objects to Russian sales of advanced missiles to Syria

http://www.sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/Russia-Pledges-to-Continue-Syria-Missile-Sale-as-4553656.php

Sorry, this is the best I could do for this interesting article.

Basically, Russia selling or giving advanced missiles to Syria.  Israel considers these missiles a threat to it's continued  existence as a country. So, this is no small thing. In order for Russia to have done this obviously Russia is ready to see Israel cease to exist. The Problem is that since Hezbollah is allied now with Assad, what happens if these missiles get under the control of Hezbollah to use against Israel?

Obviously, what might be interesting is when Israel blows up these missiles before they can be used against Israel. And what does Russia do then? I think Russia is making a tactical and strategic mistake here. Because Europe and the U.S. aren't going to allow Israel to be destroyed by missiles from Russia, given to Assad and deployed by Hezbollah against Israel.

Also, let us not underestimate the problem for Lebanon. Hezbollah going into Syria may bring down the Lebanese government. And so both Lebanon and Israel's continued existence as countries is threatened by the existence of these advanced missiles in the hands of Assad and Hezbollah. So, my thought is that Russia is sort of setting off the whole Middle East now like a bomb by doing this.

Note: I just had a sort of horrifying realization. This isn't bad Russian strategy or tactics, instead it is classic Soviet tactics likely taught to a young and rising KGB agent named Putin. Here is the strategy the way it is shared, "Push the knife in, if there is no resistance  just keep pushing it in. If there is resistance then start pulling it out."

This is classic Soviet Strategy from the Cold War. But, if I take this to it's obvious conclusion, Russia, if Europe and the U.S. don't resist now next will bring to Syria nuclear tipped weapons and then finally small nukes. They will keep upping the ante until NATO really gets pissed and acts. This unfortunately is what is actually going on.

The other thing about this is: Russia may be planning a bigger war against NATO thinking that Europe and the U.S. are weak right now. Is this the 2nd Cold War or what?

My thinking is that the longer the EU and the U.S. wait to resist Russia the worse this whole thing is going to get. They are pushing the knife into the Western World and not finding resistance so they are going to keep pushing until there is resistance. Classic Soviet operational thought.

Another important thought: Russia has been very distressed since Arab Spring began. No matter the causes of it, Russia found it's place in the Middle East eroded. So, Russia sees it's stand in Syria and Iran as sort of a "last Stand" of maintaining Soviet Era countries under their wing. Remember, Saddam Hussein at one time was under the wing of Russia too, and before then the Soviet Union. The same was true of Khaddafi. So, from Russia's point of view they don't want westernization of Syria and Iran. They want to keep both countries under their wing and might even be willing to skirmish with Europe and the U.S. to do this.
This is an equally valid point of view from Russia that all need to consider to make sense of this crazy situation that appears to be crazier each day now.

No comments: