Sunday, January 5, 2014

Turning Point for China?

I was reading Fareed Zacharia's article called "Make or Break for China" on page 16 of the January 13th 2014 issue of Time Magazine and thought it would be worth sharing some of it here with you. It appears China is now at a crossroads and I wonder if it can navigate these precipitous times without a democracy like we have with all the checks and balances in place for long term stability. Though the "Corporate structure" governance of China works well in some circumstances it doesn't work at all in other ways which creates 50,000 uprisings a year in various areas by unhappy Chinese citizens. This makes perfect sense in a basically "Ungovernable country" which has always been this way because it is just too big with too many people to govern humanely possibly with ANY system of governance. So, here are some quotes regarding what is happening right now in China:

begin quote
Debt
Local government debt nearly doubled from $1.7 trillion at the end of 2010 to an estimated $3.3 trillion by the end of 2012. The country's total debt level was estimated at 215% of the GDP last year.

-------China has built up economic imbalances for some years, and they are not sustainable for much longer. The basic problem is that for almost a decade, China's economic growth has been fueled by cheap credit and government spending---a classic developing-nation problem. Even before the financial crisis of 2008, Beijing's top officials acknowledged that the economy was, in former Premier Wen Jiabao's words "unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable." The government needed to stop the flow of easy money to infrastructure, state-owned companies and the housing sector. But this decision was tough to implement, since growth was dependent on easy money. In addition those getting the money were politically powerful, including state owned companies and local party bosses."

end quote from page 16 of the January 13th 2014 issue of Time magazine. To read more of this article please go there to the magazine or eventually online.

So, we see here some of the classic problems of trying to operate a country based mostly upon basically "A Corporate warlord philosophy" where there are palms of corporate heads to be greased. So, in this system of "Payment" between leaders in place, equality of the masses cannot ever flourish which creates uprisings ongoing of those who are left out of the system where there might not be a "Trickle down" to the average person ever the way things are presently moving within this system.

What else might work? I suppose what might work is what we see in India. However, right now India's main problem is mostly overpopulation if you really want to look at India's problem. So, as sad as this sounds India's system might work better if they had a system where they only allowed one child per family like China did for years. And China's system might work better if they actually had a democracy like India does. In some ways the problems of India and China are polar opposites to each other. But, both countries problems basically stem from too many people to govern effectively within any one country.

When I have studied this problem internationally, the conclusion I have come to is that nations with 20 million to 60 million people that are democracies tend to govern themselves and to provide for everyone the best. So, in democracies this size equality tends to become an actuality of rights and privileges all around amongst it's citizens. And citizens in these kinds of countries seem to have the fewest problems in some ways as a result ongoing.

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