Thursday, June 26, 2014

It's unlikely Ebola can make it out of Africa: But if it did likely the first big city would be: Paris

"The chance of Ebola spreading out of West Africa is very, very low," says infectious disease specialist , with St. Michael's Hospital in Toronto. "But if it did spread, Paris is probably the first city on the list."
Paris? Why single out that city?
To answer that, let's back up a bit.
Khan and his team have spent years figuring out how viruses and bacteria move around the globe. "We look at many outbreaks and decide what paths they're going take," he tells Shots. "The big question is whether sick people are going to get on a plane and spread the disease."
That answer, he has found, depends largely on two factors: How many people are infected, and the degree of travel from the outbreak area.
Take for example, the respiratory virus that can spread through water droplets when a person coughs or sneezes. When SARS first appeared in 2002, it was isolated to rural China. So it spread slowly.
end partial quote from:
Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The US? 

The reason this is the likely first stop if Ebola managed to get out of Africa is simply: proximity. If you have ever been to Paris it would be the most likely first city someone from Africa would like to see along with London. But, since London is much more expensive likely Paris would be first for someone of middle class or above monies from Africa.

No comments: