Saturday, July 26, 2014

12% Chance that we will lose all cellphones one day from the Sun in the next decade





  1. I think losing all cell phones on earth isn't likely what would happen. What is more likely is that whatever side of earth caught the full blast as the earth turned that was pointed in the direction of the sun would lose all Cell phones, GPS Satellites might turn upside down, planes might crash (because they are all electronic) etc. 

     

    1 in 8 Chance of Catastrophic Solar Megastorm by 2020 ...

    www.wired.com/2012/02/massive-solar-flare/
    Wired
    by Adam Mann - Feb 29, 2012 - The Earth has a roughly 12 percent chance of witnessing an enormous megaflare erupting from the sun in the next decade. ... They can disrupt GPS satellites and disturb or even completely ... Our network of all-star science bloggers. ... Brainy, Badass Lucy Is an Amazing Ride That Ends Up Losing Speed.
    Missing: welosecellphones
  2. Report: Chance of a Catastrophic Solar Storm Is 1 in 8 ...

    jhaines6.wordpress.com/.../report-chance-of-a-catastrophic-solar-storm-is...
    Mar 8, 2012 - Probability of a Carrington event occurring over next decade is ~12%; Space ... it will also allow all atoms on Earth to be changed, The atoms in your ... in the 1950′s and 1960′s where one would Look up at our Sun and we saw ... by the day as things are truly accelerating in and on our Sun and on Earth ...





  3. 1 in 8 Chance of Catastrophic Solar Megastorm by 2020


    The Earth has a roughly 12 percent chance of experiencing an enormous megaflare erupting from the sun in the next decade. This event could potentially cause trillions of dollars’ worth of damage and take up to a decade to recover from.
    Such an extreme event is considered to be relatively rare. The last gigantic solar storm, known as the Carrington Event, occurred more than 150 years ago and was the most powerful such event in recorded history.
    That a rival to this event might have a greater than 10 percent chance of happening in the next 10 years was surprising to space physicist Pete Riley, senior scientist at Predictive Science in San Diego, California, who published the estimate in Space Weather on Feb. 23.
    “Even if it’s off by a factor of two, that’s a much larger number than I thought,” he said.
    Earth’s sun goes through an 11-year cycle of increased and decreased activity. During solar maximum, it’s dotted with many sunspots and enormous magnetic whirlwinds erupt from its surface. Occasionally, these flares burst outward from the sun, spewing a mass of charged particles out into space.

    Small solar flares happen quite often whereas very large ones are infrequent, a mathematical distribution known as a power law. Riley was able to estimate the chance of an enormous solar flare by looking at historical databases and calculating the relation between the size and occurrence of solar flares.
    The biggest solar event ever seen was the Carrington Event, which occurred on Sept. 1, 1859. That morning, astronomer Richard Carrington watched an enormous solar flare erupt from the sun’s surface, emitting a particle stream at the Earth traveling more than 4 million miles per hour.
    When they hit the Earth’s atmosphere, those particles generated the intense ghostly ribbons of light known as auroras. Though typically relegated to the most northerly and southerly parts of the planet, the atmospheric phenomenon reached as far as Cuba, Hawaii, and northern Chile. People in New York City gathered on sidewalks and rooftops to watch “the heavens … arrayed in a drapery more gorgeous than they have been for years,” as The New York Times described it.

    'It's like being able to see a cyclone coming but not knowing the wind speed until it hits your boat 50 miles off the coast.'
    Auroras may be beautiful, but the charged particles can wreak havoc on electrical systems. At the time of the Carrington Event, telegraph stations caught on fire, their networks experienced major outages and magnetic observatories recorded disturbances in the Earth’s field that were literally off the scale. In today’s electrically dependent modern world, a similar scale solar storm could have catastrophic consequences. Auroras damage electrical power grids and may contribute to the erosion of oil and gas pipelines. They can disrupt GPS satellites and disturb or even completely black out radio communication on Earth.
    During a geomagnetic storm in 1989, for instance, Canada’s Hydro-Quebec power grid collapsed within 90 seconds, leaving millions without power for up to nine hours.
    The potential collateral damage in the U.S. of a Carrington-type solar storm might be between $1 trillion and $2 trillion in the first year alone, with full recovery taking an estimated four to 10 years, according to a 2008 report from the National Research Council.
    “A longer-term outage would likely include, for example, disruption of the transportation, communication, banking, and finance systems, and government services; the breakdown of the distribution of potable water owing to pump failure; and the loss of perishable foods and medications because of lack of refrigeration,” the NRC report said.
    But such possibilities likely represent only the worst-case scenario, said Robert Rutledge, lead of the forecast office at the NOAA/National Weather Service Space Weather Prediction Center. The potential dangers might be significantly less, since power companies are aware of such problems and can take action to mitigate them.
    For instance, companies may store power in areas where little damage is expected or bring on additional lines to help with power overloads. This is assuming, of course, that they are given enough warning as to the time and location of a solar storm’s impact on the Earth. Satellites relatively close to Earth are required to measure the exact strength and orientation of a storm.
    “It’s like being able to see a cyclone coming but not knowing the wind speed until it hits your boat 50 miles off the coast,” Rutledge said.
    Image: NASA
    end quote from:

    1 in 8 Chance of Catastrophic Solar Megastorm by 2020 ...

    The government doesn't want to talk about all this because the effects might actually be too scary to contemplate.  LIke Brian Williams said yesterday the world would still be recovering now from the effects of 2012 if it had hit us in a direct hit.

     

    I have thought about it because I understand the basic mechanisms of how almost all electrical things operate because I was trained by my father as an electrician's helper as a boy in his Electrical Contracting Business, also as a computer programmer in College I learned how electronic memory functions and how electrical coronas affect magnetic memory in all computers on earth. So, it's not only  Cell phones that might be gone, it is also all hard drives and RAM on all Computers facing the sun at the time of this solar Megastorm could be corrupted or wiped out completely. However, then the other side of the earth that didn't experience this might be fine unless the Solar Storm continued as the planet turned (unlikely) and wiped out all cell phones, Satellites and electrical components slowly worldwide as the planet slowly turned past the sun in it's 24 hour cycle. 

    To complicate this matter even further the magnetosphere no longer protects human dna like it once did before 2000. Since then cracks are appearing in the magnetosphere so at times there is no protection at all from Cosmic Rays especially near both poles. So, if you are outside near the poles (or anywhere a crack in the magnetosphere appears) you could have your dna start into some type of mutation. It's hard to say because as far as I know not enough research has been done on this kind of thing (or if it has it likely has not been published to the public) because the only way to avoid this kind of exposure would be to live about 10 feet underground when it happens in a fluke sort of way.

    So, the degrading Magnetosphere is not something most of the public knows about worldwide. 

    I also think that the degrading magnetosphere is part of the cause of a reduction in fertility rates in males and females worldwide.

     

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