Earth-orbiting satellites are designed to withstand the sun's explosions—but they may not be strong enough to ride out a solar "megastorm," a new study says.
If
hit by a powerful onslaught of solar energy and particles, Earth's
atmosphere would be flooded with high-energy electrons accelerated to
nearly the speed of light, according to a new computer model.
This
would hinder operations of low-Earth orbiting, or LEO, satellites. The
satellites wouldn't immediately start falling out of the sky following a
megastorm, but they would malfunction much faster than previous models
suggested.
"What we concluded based on our calculations is that a
very strong storm would decrease the lifetime of a typical LEO
satellite by a factor of ten," said study leader
Yuri Shprits, a geophysicist at the University of California, Los Angeles.
Though
the results are still preliminary, Shprits predicts that a majority
of the LEO satellite fleet could be lost within a few years of such an
event.
What's more, the effect could last for up to a decade, the model showed.
(See
"Solar Flare Sparks Biggest Eruption Ever Seen on Sun.")
Magnetic Waves Would Give Electrons a Boost
Satellite
problems, and even failures, have been reported during solar storms
before, but the danger usually passes within a few days.
A
megastorm would be different, because electrons and other particles
ejected by the sun would get accelerated after penetrating Earth's inner
Van Allen radiation belts. (See
pictures of solar eruptions.)
The Van Allen belts are two doughnut-shaped rings of charged particles—one nestled inside the other—that encircle our planet.
According
to the computer model, solar electrons that reach the inner belt would
get a burst of speed through interactions with traveling magnetic
waves.
The model simulated a solar storm stronger than the
so-called Halloween solar superstorms of 2003 and investigated what
effect the resulting flux of electrons would have on LEO satellites.
Such
"chorus waves" form in a region of space that lies just above the
plasmasphere, a section of Earth's protective magnetic bubble filled
with plasma, or electrically charged gas.
Normally, such electron
acceleration is difficult or impossible because the plasmasphere's
high plasma density prevents the chorus waves from efficiently
interacting with particles.
But during a megastorm, the
plasmasphere becomes severely eroded, thinning to the point that chorus
waves interact with and accelerate electrons.
After several
years, the inner-belt electron density would return to normal, the model
suggests. Until that happens, though, satellites traversing the inner
belt would be in danger of having their innards zapped by stray,
high-energy electrons.
"It's hard and expensive to shield from
them," Shprits said. "They penetrate shielding and get deposited in
semiconductors, where they can create electrical surges that damage
electronics."
Weather, communications, and military satellites
are the most likely to be affected, because many of them pass through
the inner belt, he added.
(Related:
"As Sun Storms Ramp Up, Electric Grid Braces for Impact.")
Megastorms as Rare in Snow in LA
A
solar megastorm has never been observed during the space age, although
a solar storm that was triggered by a megaflare on the sun in 1859 and
famously known as the Carrington Event is thought to have been
powerful enough to qualify.
(
Read what would happen if the Carrington Event happened today.)
Many
scientists think it's only a matter of time before another megastorm
erupts. Shprits compared the odds of another megastorm happening with
the likelihood of snow in southern California. "It's rare, but it does
happen," said Shprits, whose study was published recently in the journal
Space Weather.
Richard Behnke, a space scientist at the
National Science Foundation, said the new study could help both improve space-climate forecasts and design mitigation strategies for satellites.
"If
a solar [megastorm] were to occur, there is no doubt in my mind that
there will be an extensive impact on satellite lifetimes," said Behnke,
who was not involved in the study.
Janet Green, a researcher at the
Space Weather Prediction Center
at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, called the new
computer model a "very necessary first step" for planning and preparing
for a solar megastorm.
The model shows "there is probably a
threat to satellites during [megastorms]," Green said in an email. She
cautioned, however, that the model is based on many assumptions and
simplifications that will have to be tested further.
Study leader Shprits noted that NASA's
Radiation Belt Storm Probe
mission, scheduled to launch in 2013, will help scientists better
understand how radiation belt particles are energized and dissipated.
For more on solar flares, sunspots, and solar wind, read "The Sun—Living With a Stormy Star," from National Geographic
magazine >>
end quote from:
"Solar Megastorm Could Cripple Satellites for a Decade."
This is the first I have heard the following from:
begin repeat quote from above:
"Though
the results are still preliminary, Shprits predicts that a majority
of the LEO satellite fleet could be lost within a few years of such an
event.
What's more, the effect could last for up to a decade, the model showed." end quote from above.
So, what this means to me is that LEO satellites would have their lifetime reduced by a factor of 10. So, theoretically if a satellite was expected to last 10 years it's lifetime would be reduced to 1 year.
the other interesting fact is that a megastorm sounds like it is sort of like the way a tsunami works instead of a regular wave in the ocean where it stays at a really high level for a really long time. In this case the research indicates it would continue killing satellites for up to 10 years. In this case imagine an EMP burst that didn't just hit but stayed in it's effect at that level or higher or lower for 10 years. This combined with an already degraded magnetosphere this decade with holes in it would allow radiation constantly to enter earth and mutate everything living beneath any holes that existed with low level nuclear radiation similar to a nuclear meltdown like we had at Fukushima in 2011. Though many people are checking the radiation around Fukushima in the ground, the groundwater, the ocean, the fish and in other food grown nearby, is there anyone that is pointing their radiation detectors at the sky where they live when a Solar Storm hits earth to see how much radiation life forms are getting from the sky? This might be important when the combination of a magnetosphere hole and very high radiation intersected from the sun here on earth. It might be important to get some idea of the mutations to life forms in that area including humans. It is my understanding that most of these holes are nearer to the poles and often within the polar circles. However, more research likely needs to be done regarding this.
It also might be important to know how much extra radiation one gets when flying in a passenger jet during a time when Solar Storms hit earth. Another interesting thing might be: "How many people have heart problems or heart attacks or die from heart problems soon after flying?
I don't think the airlines would be liable for this because after all it is an "Act of God" in legal terminology. However, if people knew when solar storms are hitting and had a heart problem, they might choose to take another flight on another day and thereby stay alive longer. I think this will be a part of the experience of people flying within a few years.
