This is how I think the mechanism actually works.
Too much population of any intelligent species (including humans) creates fire and internal combustion engines. This creates CO2. This creates the Greenhouse effect over time. This then creates heating the world up to a 76 degree average year around at the north and south pole. By then, anyone who hasn't moved underground during most of the day most places on earth is already dead from the heat. Farming would have to stop unless you used something like grow lights underground because greenhouses would be just too hot over most of the earth (if the average temperature at the north and south poles is 76 degrees Fahrenheit.)
By the way I think a 76 degree Fahrenheit average is much greater than any average in Hawaii during the summer time there (between June and the beginning of September). So, if you want to spend a summer in something close to 76 degrees average try spending a summer in Hawaii without any air conditioning where it might be close to this.
Also, there is no land at the north pole so anyone trying to stay cool there would have to be on board a ship or boat because all ice wouldn't be there most times during the year at that point (or at all).
Only Antarctica has land under it which is going to be very valuable indeed along with northern Canada and Siberia (at least until the next ice age starts) whenever that is.
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
what would an ice age beginning look like?
Note: By the way all ice ages start with Global warming to begin with. It's always been like this.
I think it is sort of about the oscillation between cold and hot here on earth.
As we presently oscillate towards hotter temperatures more CO2 but also water vapor goes into the sky forming a lot more rain clouds. As this cloud cover slowly increases towards more and more of the year because it takes so much less to evaporate now than before because the oceans in temperature become closer to the evaporation point as they warm like heat batteries.
At a certain tipping point there are just so many rain clouds in the sky so much of the year that you have like you have now where it almost never stops raining in many parts of the country and world. So, some of these same places where it never stops raining would also be where the ice age would begin.
It could be a weeks straight snow which then creates a month of snow which then creates 6 months of snow which then creates snow all summer long some places because the snow never melts off that year. Then new snows begin before the last snows melt off. And this cycle begins to repeat itself.
However, it couldn't do this where warmer oceans are.
So, in the U.S. this would look more like: "Snow and Ice from the Sierras to the Appalachian mountains which might be as far south as Santa Fe, New Mexico or Albuquerque, New Mexico eventually.
But, needless to say the Sierras wouldn't melt for years at a time and the Rockies snow wouldn't melt off for years at a time and the Appalachian mountains wouldn't melt their snow off for years at a time either.
But, it could also be like this for 1 year, 10 years or 20 years or 25 years.
OR it could just come one day and never leave for thousands of years time and people would have to adapt to farmland being under 10 to 100 feet of snow or more for hundreds or thousands of years.
By the way this is likely not an IF and only a When?
I think it is sort of about the oscillation between cold and hot here on earth.
As we presently oscillate towards hotter temperatures more CO2 but also water vapor goes into the sky forming a lot more rain clouds. As this cloud cover slowly increases towards more and more of the year because it takes so much less to evaporate now than before because the oceans in temperature become closer to the evaporation point as they warm like heat batteries.
At a certain tipping point there are just so many rain clouds in the sky so much of the year that you have like you have now where it almost never stops raining in many parts of the country and world. So, some of these same places where it never stops raining would also be where the ice age would begin.
It could be a weeks straight snow which then creates a month of snow which then creates 6 months of snow which then creates snow all summer long some places because the snow never melts off that year. Then new snows begin before the last snows melt off. And this cycle begins to repeat itself.
However, it couldn't do this where warmer oceans are.
So, in the U.S. this would look more like: "Snow and Ice from the Sierras to the Appalachian mountains which might be as far south as Santa Fe, New Mexico or Albuquerque, New Mexico eventually.
But, needless to say the Sierras wouldn't melt for years at a time and the Rockies snow wouldn't melt off for years at a time and the Appalachian mountains wouldn't melt their snow off for years at a time either.
But, it could also be like this for 1 year, 10 years or 20 years or 25 years.
OR it could just come one day and never leave for thousands of years time and people would have to adapt to farmland being under 10 to 100 feet of snow or more for hundreds or thousands of years.
By the way this is likely not an IF and only a When?
The Fantasy ending to "Once upon a time in Hollywood"
No. I won't give it away but nevertheless it is a very satisfying ending for this movie. I think this is one reason why this movie could be the most popular of all Quentin Tarantino movies especially by people like myself who actually lived through what actually happened in history then.
It was very hard to lose Janice Joplin and Jimmie Hendrix and all the rest during those few years while also losing 50,000 Americans in Viet Nam also at the same time. But, the best way I can put this is that what happened in Viet Nam and the Kennedy assassination and his brother and Martin Luther King and all the rest of the public or not so public things that happened were all a part of the insanity of the 1960s from the bay of Pigs, to the Cuban Missile Crisis to everything else that happened then. And this didn't really end until the boys came home from Viet Nam and Nixon resigned from office where things started to seem a little saner than they had since the Bay of Pigs and the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Kennedy assassination. But then, we were dealing with the quadrupling of gas and diesel prices which took us into recession after recession until Clinton became president in 1992. So, there really was only about 8 years when things seemed almost completely okay before 9-11 happened and the world went insane once again. Then the 2000s became a whole new kind of insanity. Then Obama became a relief from that insanity only to be replaced by the ultimate insanity of Trump. As the world oscillates back and forth one wonders if it is all just going to fly apart into space one of these days? Or will things just go on like they have for hundreds of thousands of years already as we move into the next ice age caused by Global Warming.
Note: Global warming has preceded every ice age here on earth by the way. So, I figure we might have between 1000 to 10,000 years before the next ice age begins (or less).
It was very hard to lose Janice Joplin and Jimmie Hendrix and all the rest during those few years while also losing 50,000 Americans in Viet Nam also at the same time. But, the best way I can put this is that what happened in Viet Nam and the Kennedy assassination and his brother and Martin Luther King and all the rest of the public or not so public things that happened were all a part of the insanity of the 1960s from the bay of Pigs, to the Cuban Missile Crisis to everything else that happened then. And this didn't really end until the boys came home from Viet Nam and Nixon resigned from office where things started to seem a little saner than they had since the Bay of Pigs and the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Kennedy assassination. But then, we were dealing with the quadrupling of gas and diesel prices which took us into recession after recession until Clinton became president in 1992. So, there really was only about 8 years when things seemed almost completely okay before 9-11 happened and the world went insane once again. Then the 2000s became a whole new kind of insanity. Then Obama became a relief from that insanity only to be replaced by the ultimate insanity of Trump. As the world oscillates back and forth one wonders if it is all just going to fly apart into space one of these days? Or will things just go on like they have for hundreds of thousands of years already as we move into the next ice age caused by Global Warming.
Note: Global warming has preceded every ice age here on earth by the way. So, I figure we might have between 1000 to 10,000 years before the next ice age begins (or less).
Schutzhund training for Police types of larger dogs
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Schutzhund is a German word meaning “protection dog.” It refers to a sport that focuses on developing and evaluating those traits in dogs that make them more useful and happier companions to their owners. Schutzhund work concentrates on three parts.
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Schutzhund (German for "protection dog") is a dog sport that was developed in Germany in the early 1900s as a breed suitability test for the German Shepherd ...
Schutzhund
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The Obedience Phase in Schutzhund at 2010 FCI World Championship Finland
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Schutzhund (German for "protection dog") is a dog sport that was developed in Germany in the early 1900s as a breed suitability test for the German Shepherd breed.[1] The test would determine if the dog displayed the appropriate traits and characteristics of a proper working German Shepherd.[2]Today, it is used as a sport where many breeds other than German Shepherd Dogs can compete, but it is such a demanding test that few dogs can pass.[3]
Contents
Traits of Schutzhund dogs[edit]
Schutzhund tests dogs of all breeds for the traits necessary for police-type work. Dogs that pass Schutzhund tests should be suitable for a wide variety of tasks: police work, specific odor detection, search and rescue, and many others. The purpose of Schutzhund is to identify dogs that have or do not have the character traits required for these demanding jobs. Some of those traits are:
- Strong desire to work
- Courage
- Intelligence
- Trainability
- Strong bond to the handler
- Perseverance
- Protective instinct
- Sense of smell
Schutzhund tests for these traits. It also tests for physical traits such as strength, endurance, agility, and scenting ability. The goal of Schutzhund is to illuminate the character and ability of a dog through training. Breeders can use this insight to determine how and whether to use the dog in producing the next generation of working dogs.[4]
History of dog breeds commonly used in Schutzhund[edit]
The German Shepherd was developed from working herding dogs around 1900 as an all-around working dog.[5] Within a few years it was clear that the dogs were losing their working ability. Schutzhund was developed at this time as a test of working ability for German Shepherds. Only German Shepherds that had passed a Schutzhund test or a herding test were allowed to breed and thus have their progeny registered as German Shepherd Dogs. This is true in Germany to this day. It is only by testing the working ability of every generation that the strong working characteristics of the GSD have been maintained.[6]
Dogs of any breed, even mixes, can compete in Schutzhund today, but the most common breeds are German Shepherds, Belgian Malinois, Boxers, Rottweilers, Dobermans, Cane Corso, Giant Schnauzers, Bouvier des Flandres, Dutch Shepherd Dogs, Beaucerons, American Bulldogs, Black Russian Terriers, Airedale Terriers, Australian Cattle Dogs, and the like.[7]
History[edit]
In response to political forces in Germany, in 2004 the Verein für Deutsche Schäferhunde (SV) and the Deutscher Hundesportverein (DHV) made substantial changes to Schutzhund. The DHV adopted the Fédération Cynologique Internationale (FCI) rules that govern IPO titles, so that at least on paper the SV and DHV gave up control of the sport to the FCI. The DHV changed the name of the titles from "SchH" (Schutzhund) to "VPG" (Vielseitigkeitsprüfung für Gebrauchshunde which roughly translates Versatility examination for working dogs). The SV has retained the "SchH" title names, but otherwise conforms to the DHV/FCI rules.
Description[edit]
There are three schutzhund titles: Schutzhund 1 (SchH1), Schutzhund 2 (SchH2), and Schutzhund 3 (SchH3). SchH1 is the first title and SchH3 is the most advanced. Additionally, before a dog can compete for an SchH1, it must pass a temperament test called a B or BH (Begleithundprüfung, which translates as "traffic-sure companion dog test"). The B tests basic obedience and sureness around strange people, strange dogs, traffic, and loud noises. A dog that exhibits excessive fear, distractibility, or aggression cannot pass the B and so cannot go on to schutzhund.
The Schutzhund test has changed over the years. Modern Schutzhund consists of three phases: tracking, obedience, and protection.[3] A dog must pass all three phases in one trial to be awarded a schutzhund title. Each phase is judged on a 100-point scale. The minimum passing score is 70 for the tracking and obedience phases and 80 for the protection phase. At any time the judge may dismiss a dog for showing poor temperament, including fear or aggression.
| Phase | Description |
|---|---|
| Tracking | The tracking phase tests not only the dog's scenting ability, but also its mental soundness and physical endurance. In the tracking phase, a track layer walks across a field, dropping several small articles along the way. After a period of time, the dog is directed to follow the track while being followed by the handler on a 33-foot leash. When the dog finds each article, he indicates it, usually by lying down with the article between his front paws. The dog is scored on how intently and carefully it follows the track and indicates the articles. The length, complexity, number of articles, and age of the track varies for each title. |
| Obedience | The obedience phase is done in a large field, with the dogs working in pairs. One dog is placed in a down position on the side of the field and its handler leaves it while the other dog works in the field. Then the dogs switch places. In the field, there are several heeling exercises, including heeling through a group of people. There are two or three gunshots during the heeling to test the dog's reaction to loud noises. There are one or two recalls, three retrieves (flat, jump and A-frame), and a send out, in which the dog is directed to run away from the handler straight and fast and then lie down on command. Obedience is judged on the dog's accuracy and attitude. The dog must show enthusiasm. A dog that is uninterested or cowering scores poorly. |
| Protection | In the protection phase, the judge has an assistant, called the "helper", who helps him or her test the dog's courage to protect itself and its handler and its ability to be controlled while doing so. The helper wears a heavily padded sleeve on one arm. There are several blinds, placed where the helper can hide, on the field. The dog is directed to search the blinds for the helper. When it finds the helper, it indicates this by barking. The dog must guard the helper to prevent them from moving until recalled by the handler. There follows a series of exercises similar to police work where the handler searches the helper and transports them to the judge. At specified points, the helper either attacks the dog or the handler or attempts to escape. The dog must stop the attack or the escape by biting the padded sleeve. When the attack or escape stops, the dog is commanded to "out," or release the sleeve. The dog must out or it is dismissed. At all times the dog must show the courage to engage the helper and the temperament to obey the handler while in this high state of drive. Again, the dog must show enthusiasm. A dog that shows fear, lack of control, or inappropriate aggression is dismissed. |
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Training[edit]
Schutzhund training, like the sport itself, has evolved over the years. The definitive description of Schutzhund training in the first 50 years of the sport is Col. Konrad Most's Dog Training: A Manual, 1910 (English trans. 1954, ISBN 1-929242-00-X). By modern standards, Most's training is very harsh and possibly abusive. Despite this, it is also structured, consistent, and in many ways conforms to more recent ideas on learning theory. Over time, the more brutal techniques fell out of use and few trainers still follow Most's program. In 1981, Helmut Raiser published Der Schutzhund (English trans. by Armin Winkler, 1999 (no ISBN)), which radically changed Schutzhund protection training. In the US, the next great change in Schutzhund training is marked by the 1991 publication of Schutzhund Theory & Training Methods (ISBN 0-87605-731-8) by Susan Barwig and Stewart Hilliard. Also see TOP WORKING DOGS, A Schutzhund Training Manual by Dr. Dietmar Schellenberg, first published in 1982. With the fifth edition in 2012 (ISBN 978-0-9608798-2-3), Schellenberg presents a remarkably comprehensive guide with detailed, step-by-step instructions on Schutzhund training and theory. A number of other English-language books have been published on Schutzhund training. Some of the more influential books are:
- Training the Competitive Working Dog by Tom Rose and Gary Patterson, 2004 (no ISBN). This book is out of print and has been updated in 2006 with Training the Behavior by Gary Patterson.
- Schutzhund Obedience: Training in Drive with Gottfreid Dildei, by Sheila Booth, 1992 (ISBN 0-9663020-2-8)
- Schutzhund: Theory and Training Methods by Susan Barwig and Stewart Hilliard (ISBN 978-0-87605-731-5)
A recent innovation in providing information on Schutzhund training is the development of video tapes and DVDs. As with books, all videos and DVDs are not created equal. Viewers must exercise discretion when considering the techniques shown in videos. Just because a technique appears in a video (or book) does not mean that it is a good idea or that many Schutzhund trainers use it. There is a diversity of opinion on how to train Schutzhund dogs. This is reflected in the many conflicting opinions presented in the various videos.
A reliable source for training information is a good Schutzhund club. The overwhelming majority of Schutzhund training is done by owner/handlers at local clubs. There are very few clubs in the US, making books and videos a vital source of information in that country. In the US, most clubs are affiliated with the American Working Dog Federation (AWDF), United States Boxer Association (USBA), American Working Malinois Association (AWMA), United Schutzhund Clubs of America (USA), Deutscher Verband der Gebrauchshundsportvereine (DVG), or German Shepherd Dog Club of America-Working Dog Association (GSDCA-WDA). Schutzhund clubs tend to be small, 20 or fewer members, because there is a limit to the number of dogs that can be trained in one session. Clubs often provide only limited formal assistance with tracking and obedience. To a certain extent, the clubs exist to provide the specialized resources needed to train the protection phase. However, a legitimate club will not permit a member to train only protection. Usually the more experienced members are willing to help the novice with tracking and obedience, though this is typically somewhat informal in the US.
Another function of Schutzhund clubs is to identify dogs that should not be trained in Schutzhund. Schutzhund is a challenging test of a dog's character, and not every dog, or even every GSD, is up to the challenge. The training director of the club has a responsibility to the dog, handler, club, and society to constantly evaluate every dog and to decline to train any dog with questionable character or working ability. Training a dog that does not really want to work is stressful and frustrating for all parties involved.
Schutzhund clubs regularly hold public trials, providing the opportunity for dogs to earn titles and for handlers to assess their training progress. A tiny number of dedicated handlers have trained their dogs to title readiness strictly from books and videos. This is unlikely to succeed in most cases, because it is almost impossible to train the protection phase without a helper. A good club should be considered a necessity for Schutzhund training.
Organizations[edit]
Schutzhund is governed by a number of organizations. The FCI, the international umbrella organization for all things dog-related, sets the rules for IPO titles. (IPO- Internatinale Prüfungs-Ordnung - is the FCI name for sport Schutzhund titles.) The AZG sets the rules for Schutzhund for all breeds. The AZG is one of the component organizations of the VDH, the all breed kennel club of Germany. The German Shepherd Dog Club of Germany, the SV, is a member of the VDH and arguably the most powerful influence on the sport. Although the AZG formally sets the rules, the AZG does nothing with respect to Schutzhund without the approval of the SV. Still, the SV has great influence in the FCI and is probably still the most powerful influence on the sport. The DVG is an all-breed dog sport organization in Germany that organizes clubs and trials and has branches in Canada and The United States.
The largest Schutzhund organization in the US is the United Schutzhund Clubs of America, called USCA. In spite of its name, USCA is a German Shepherd Dog breed club. The Working Dog Association is a branch of another GSD breed club, the German Shepherd Dog Club of America, which also sponsors clubs and trials. There are a small number of DVG clubs in the United States, various other breed organizations that are involved in Schutzhund, and the American Working Dog Federation (AWDF), which is an umbrella organization. There are other breed specific Schutzhund clubs such as the United Doberman Club. In the case of the Doberman, the AKC will not allow you to add Schutzhund titles to your dog's pedigree unless they are earned with the United Doberman Club. This barely scratches the surface.