U.S. likely to lose top rating: economists

• A demonstrator holds placards to protest U.S. debt in front of the Capitol in Wa …

WASHINGTON/LONDON (Reuters) - The United States will lose its top-notch AAA credit rating from at least one major rating agency, according to a Reuters poll that also found wrangling over the debt ceiling has already damaged the economy.

A small majority of economists -- 30 out of 53 -- surveyed over the past two days said the United States will lose its AAA credit rating from one of the three big ratings agencies -- Standard & Poor's, Moody's or Fitch.

Respondents saw a 20 percent chance of a new recession over the next year, a prospect that some economists say has been compounded by the acrimonious political fight over what is normally a procedural legislative vote on the debt.

Lawmakers have one week left to hash out a deficit-cutting plan without which Republicans in Congress have said they will not raise the legal $14.3 trillion debt limit, risking a potentially devastating government debt default in August.

"We believe that Congress will act with an 11th hour deal to raise the debt ceiling. However, the risk of that deal failing increases with each passing day," said Guy LeBas, director at Janney Capital Markets.

"I would say that the chance of a U.S. ratings downgrade is now more likely than not." end quote from 

 http://news.yahoo.com/u-likely-lose-top-rating-economists-000214380.html

I recently thought that our chance of losing our credit rating by major agencies was about 70% to 80%. However, since 30 out of 53 economists surveyed over the last two days said we would lose our national credit rating sometime after next week I think I would downgrade the probabilities by dividing 30 by 53 which is about a 56 or 57% probability. I like these odds better than what I originally thought. Because even that 56 or 57% probability is for only one of the three credit ratings agencies and not for all of them. Better odds for the U.S.