Did Arab Spring Make the Middle East more Dangerous?

I think in the short run of 5, 10 or even 25 years the answer has to be "Yes". The reason for this is that all new democracies are fragile. I would compare them to a teenager between 15 and 19 years of age if they are out on their own away from their parents for the first time. You sort of can expect some kind of trouble because they just aren't experienced enough in regard to the real world. The same is true of new democracies in the middle east. Most of these areas have either never seen a democracy before or only read about them in books. Also, democracy is going to look completely different in a Muslim majority country than it is going to look in a Christian Secular country.

One example, because we all have studied this in U.S. history would be the easiest for Americans to recognize. When George Washington and the rest of the early patriots created the United States and threw off King George (the crazy one) they still almost lost the U.S. in the 1812 War with England. In fact, the English even took the Capitol, Washington DC. and only in Louisiana did Andrew Jackson finally defeat the British there in the Bayous which eventually made him a U.S. President because of this. So, if you take 1776 and all the bloodshed even before this in the U.S. until 1814 when all the mess sort of ended until the Civil War over slavery, 1776 until 1814 is 38 years before things began to really stabilize even for the U.S. And if you consider the Civil War it was about 100 years before things settled down to something we could actually recognize today from 1776 until the 1870s when things began to settle down in the U.S. on a more permanent basis into a really stable democracy nationwide.

So, to expect something different for the middle East, with Iraq, Libya, Tunisia and Egypt and likely soon to be others as well with new democracies is completely unrealistic. They have all got about 30 to 100 years to get their democracies and institutions working they way they should. It takes time to create a useful and stable democracy. It doesn't happen overnight. However, the present Muslim demonstrations likely won't help their relationships with the U.S., Canada and Europe and the rest of the western world either, especially in the short run.