Egypt at crossroads: Endorsement of draft Constitution won’t heal political divide
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Despite concluding a two-stage referendum on a draft Constitution, the political turmoil that has gripped Egypt in recent months is likely to endure. Backed by Egypt's Islamist President Mohamed Morsi, the controversial vote as well as the draft charter had been rushed through in spite of stiff opposition. In fact, the constituent assembly
charged with the drafting process had seen most minority Christian
members quit in protest. Secular political parties under the banner of
the National Salvation Front have opposed the charter, because it does
little to protect human rights and safeguard the interests
of religious minorities and women. Further, the draft contains several
loopholes that leave the door open for the Muslim Brotherhood — to which
Morsi belongs — and its Salafi allies to impose a strict Islamist regime
in future. That the referendum was marred by days of violent clashes
between secular groups and Islamist hardliners exemplifies the deep
polarisation in Egyptian polity and society.
While official results of the referendum are awaited, an estimated 64% of the ballot is predicted to have endorsed the draft charter. If confirmed, the narrow margin of victory for the supporters of Morsi and the Brotherhood betrays a lack of popular approval. Combined with the fact that certain sources have pegged the overall voter turnout as low as 30%, there is a question mark hanging over the validity of the referendum. Confident of their organisational strength, the Islamists have been touting their success at the polls as vindication of their democratic credentials. However, Morsi and the Brotherhood would do well to distinguish between a majoritarian democracy and a liberal democracy. Opting for the former would see it go the Pakistan way, making it a failing state. The largest Arab nation can ill afford such a disaster.
While official results of the referendum are awaited, an estimated 64% of the ballot is predicted to have endorsed the draft charter. If confirmed, the narrow margin of victory for the supporters of Morsi and the Brotherhood betrays a lack of popular approval. Combined with the fact that certain sources have pegged the overall voter turnout as low as 30%, there is a question mark hanging over the validity of the referendum. Confident of their organisational strength, the Islamists have been touting their success at the polls as vindication of their democratic credentials. However, Morsi and the Brotherhood would do well to distinguish between a majoritarian democracy and a liberal democracy. Opting for the former would see it go the Pakistan way, making it a failing state. The largest Arab nation can ill afford such a disaster.
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Since only 30% to 38 % of the potential voters actually voted for the Constitution at all and most people didn't vote out of protest to this particular Constitution, you have about 60% to 70% of the people not accepting this Constitution that are adults. So, you have potentially up to 60% to 70 % of the populace of Egypt that could rise up against Morsi and this Constitution. And even if say 40% rise up against this Constitution it would be enough to galvanize the other 20% to 30% against the Constitution. This is sort of what has happened in Syria when people started standing up to Assad in Syria with an attitude similar to Libya which is "We Win or We Die".
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