| New York Times | - |
“We are concerned about the use of Syrian
territory by the Al Qaeda organization to recruit individuals and
develop the capability to be able not just to carry out attacks inside
of Syria, but also to use Syria as a launching pad,” John O. Brennan, the ...
WASHINGTON
— Dozens of seasoned militant fighters, including some midlevel
planners, have traveled to Syria from Pakistan in recent months in what
American intelligence and counterterrorism officials fear is an effort
to lay the foundation for future strikes against Europe and the United
States.
“We
are concerned about the use of Syrian territory by the Al Qaeda
organization to recruit individuals and develop the capability to be
able not just to carry out attacks inside of Syria, but also to use
Syria as a launching pad,” John O. Brennan, the C.I.A. director, told a
House panel recently.
The
extremists who concern Mr. Brennan are part of a group of Qaeda
operatives in Pakistan that has been severely depleted in recent years
by a decade of American drone strikes. But the fighters still bring a
wide range of skills to the battlefield, such as bomb-building,
small-arms tactics, logistics, religious indoctrination and planning,
though they are not believed to have experience in launching attacks in
the West.
Syria
is an appealing base for these operatives because it offers them the
relative sanctuary of extremist-held havens — away from drone strikes in
Afghanistan and Pakistan — as well as ready access to about 1,200
American and European Muslims who have gone there to fight and could be
potential recruits to carry out attacks when they return home. Senior
counterterrorism officials have voiced fears in recent months that these
Western fighters could be radicalized by the country’s civil war.
New
classified intelligence assessments based on information from
electronic intercepts, informers and social media posts conclude that Al
Qaeda’s senior leadership in Pakistan, including Ayman al-Zawahri, is
developing a much more systematic, long-term plan than was previously
known to create specific cells in Syria that would identify, recruit and
train these Westerners.
Al
Qaeda has in the past blessed the creation of local branches in places
like Yemen, where an affiliate has tried to strike the United States.
But the effort in Syria would signify the first time that senior Qaeda
leaders had set up a wing of their own outside Pakistan dedicated to
conducting attacks against the West, counterterrorism officials said. It
also has the potential to rejuvenate Al Qaeda’s central command, which
President Obama has described as being greatly diminished.
The
assessment by the United States, however, has some detractors among
even its staunchest counterterrorism partners, which also see an
increase in Pakistan-based veterans of Al Qaeda among Syrian rebel
groups but which disagree over whether they are involved in a
coordinated plan to attack the West.
“At
this stage, it’s a lot less organized than a directed plan,” said one
Western security official. “Some fighters are going to Syria, but
they’re going on an ad hoc basis, not at an organized level.”
Most
of the operatives identified by intelligence officials are now focused
on attacking Syrian government troops and occasionally rival rebel
factions. But the fact that these kinds of operatives are showing up in
Syria indicates to American officials that Mr. Zawahri is also playing a
long game — counting on easy access to Iraq and Qaeda support networks
there, as well as on the United States’ reluctance to carry out drone
strikes or other military operations against targets in Syria.
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“A
key question, however, is how using Syria as a launching pad to strike
the West fits into Zawahri’s overall strategy, and if he’s soft-pedaling
now, hoping to consolidate Al Qaeda’s position for the future,” said
one American counterterrorism official. “Clearly, there is going to be
push and pull between local operatives and Al Qaeda central on attack
planning. How fast the pendulum will swing toward trying something isn’t
clear right now.”
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The
new assessment is not likely to change American policy toward Syria any
time soon, but it puts pressure on the Obama administration and its
allies because it raises the possibility that Syria could become the
next Afghanistan.
Top
officials at the F.B.I., the National Counterterrorism Center and the
Department of Homeland Security say they are working closely with
European allies to track Westerners returning from Syria.
There
are perhaps “a few dozen” Qaeda veterans of fighting in Afghanistan and
Pakistan in Syria, two top counterterrorism officials said. “What we’ve
seen is a coalescence in Syria of Al Qaeda veterans from Afghanistan
and Pakistan, as well as extremists from other hot spots such as Libya
and Iraq,” Matthew G. Olsen, the director of the National
Counterterrorism Center, told a Senate panel in March. “From a terrorism
perspective, the most concerning development is that Al Qaeda has
declared Syria its most critical front.”
In
his first speech as secretary of Homeland Security in February, Jeh C.
Johnson put it even more bluntly. “Syria has become a matter of homeland
security,” he said.
The
Qaeda veterans have multiple missions and motivations, counterterrorism
officials say. Like thousands of other foreign fighters, many have been
drawn on their own to Syria to fight the government of President Bashar
al-Assad.
Many
others, like Abu Khalid al-Suri, a Syrian-born veteran of Al Qaeda,
were sent by the terrorist group’s central command in Pakistan first to
fight Mr. Assad, but also to begin laying the groundwork to use enclaves
in Syria to launch attacks against the West, American officials said.
Mr.
Suri, who is believed to have been close to Osama bin Laden and to have
fought against American forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, was sent to
mediate conflicts between Al Qaeda’s main affiliate in Syria, the Nusra
Front, and another extremist faction, the Islamic State in Iraq and
Syria, which Al Qaeda has disavowed. He was killed in a suicide attack
in February by the rival group.
Video|3:26
Credit Ahmad Aboud/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
The Syrian Opposition, Explained
There are believed to be hundreds, if not
thousands, of groups fighting in Syria. These opposition groups are
fighting the Assad regime, but recently turned on each other with
increased ferocity.
Many
of the Qaeda planners and operatives from Afghanistan and Pakistan have
clustered in the east and northwest sections of Syria, in territory
controlled or heavily influenced by the Nusra Front, intelligence
officials said.
Sanafi
al-Nasr, a Saudi-born extremist who is on his country’s list of most
wanted terrorists, traveled to Syria from the Afghanistan-Pakistan
border region late last year and emerged as one of the Nusra Front’s top
strategists. Jihadi forums reported that he was killed in fighting last
week, but American counterterrorism officials said those reports could
not be confirmed.
“Al
Qaeda veterans could have a critical impact on recruitment and
training,” said Laith Alkhouri, a senior analyst at Flashpoint Global
Partners, a security consulting firm that tracks militant websites.
“They would be lionized, at least within the ranks, as experienced
mujahedeen.”
While
these senior Qaeda envoys have been involved in the immediate fight
against Syrian forces, American counterterrorism officials said they
also had broader, longer-term ambitions.
Without
naming Mr. Nasr, James R. Clapper Jr., the director of national
intelligence, told a Senate panel in February that a “small nucleus” of
Qaeda veterans from Afghanistan and Pakistan in Syria who are “separate
from al-Nusra harbor designs on attacks in Europe and the homeland.”
Charles
Lister, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar,
agreed, saying, “The large majority of Al Qaeda-linked commanders now in
Syria are there due to the potential for Syria to be the next jihadist
safe haven.”
Hassan
Abu Hanieh, a Jordanian expert on Islamist movements, said that
launching attacks on Western targets did not appear to be a priority for
the Nusra Front now. However, the group’s ideology, or a belief that it
was under direct threat, could lead it to attack the West eventually,
he said.
“As soon as they get targeted, they will move the battle outside,” Mr. Hanieh said.
Ben Hubbard contributed reporting from Amman, Jordan.
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