Opinion: Putin planning 'Soviet Union lite'
updated 7:52 PM EST, Mon March 3, 2014
Ukraine's expectations of western allies
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- What's at stake in Ukraine is not just Crimea's future, but the world order, Ulrich Speck says
- He says Moscow has never accepted Ukraine's sovereignty and considers it in its sphere
- Putin's broader plan is to create a "Soviet Union lite" with Ukraine the cornerstone, he says
- Speck says the West must now decide whether to accept Russia's rules
Editor's note: Ulrich Speck is a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Europe think tank in Brussels. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely his. Follow @uli_speck and @Carnegie_Europe on Twitter.
(CNN) -- What's at stake in the conflict between the
West and Russia over Ukraine is not just the future of Crimea, it's the
future of international order.
Some weeks ago, Crimea
was a remote place, to historians known as the center of a war in the
1850s, while ordinary people would have associated it with some kind of
sparkling alcoholic beverage. But suddenly and unexpectedly, Crimea has
become a geopolitical hotspot in a conflict between Russia and the West
that seems to be straight out of a Cold War playbook.
Ulrich Speck
Moscow has raised the
stakes dramatically with a de facto annexation of this region, which is
home of an important Russian naval base and inhabited by a population
whose majority is oriented towards Russia (while an important minority,
among them the Cossacks, is strongly attached to Ukraine).
It is unclear at the
moment whether President Vladimir Putin sees this only as a first step,
which may be followed by an invasion of other parts of southern and
eastern Ukraine.
What is clear is that Russia is not going to leave anytime soon.
'Soviet Union lite'
The tactics and
strategies of de facto-annexation have already been displayed in the
Georgian regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia after the Russian-Georgian
war in 2008; we're likely to see them now in Crimea. Under the cover of
sham legality, the region will in essence be fully controlled by Moscow.
The current leadership in
the Kremlin has never accepted that Ukraine, which achieved
independence in 1991, is a sovereign state. It considers Ukraine to be
in its sphere of influence, which means that on important issues the
country must -- in Russia's view -- ask Moscow for permission.
Tymoshenko pleads for help to save Crimea
Ukraine: Everything you need to know
Crisis escalating in Ukraine
Will diplomacy work in Ukraine?
Putin's broader plan is
to recreate some kind of "Soviet Union lite," a ring of countries under
Moscow's control, with the goal of boosting Russia's geopolitical
standing. Ukraine is the cornerstone of that project.
The downfall of
President Yanukovych and the triumph of the popular Maidan movement in
Ukraine have signaled to Moscow, however, that it is losing its grip on
Ukraine and that its grand strategy is going nowhere.
As the new government in
Kiev appears committed to a close association with the EU and as Putin
had lost indirect means of control, he decided to use armed force to win
Ukraine back -- or at least to deny the West what he sees, in his
terms, as the West's victory.
Moscow has been
consistent in viewing Ukraine as a satellite country but the West has
constantly ignored the risk that Russia could use armed force there.
Yes, there was the
precedent of the war in Georgia, but back then Moscow had at least some
arguments to back up its narrative of a humanitarian intervention, while
the Georgian side lost its nerve and acted preemptively. And the U.S.
and the EU were all too happy to accept Moscow's version of events and
continue to do business as usual.
The Ukrainian situation
is different in many regards. First, there were no serious ethnic
tensions that could serve as a pretext for Russian intervention. Second,
Ukraine lies between the EU and Russia, which means that the West
simply cannot ignore a Russian aggression because of geographic
proximity. Thirdly, the EU is already deeply involved in Ukraine.
In the case of Ukraine,
the West is not going to accept Moscow's narrative. This is too
obviously a case of aggression -- the use of force violating Ukraine's
sovereignty. But Putin must have calculated that nevertheless the price
for challenging the West over Ukraine won't be too high -- that the West
is not going to unite behind a strong response.
Western cracks
Is he right? Signs of
disagreement about the proper response are visible. On Sunday, German
Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier publicly voiced doubts about
the proposal to exclude Russia from the G8. Berlin's tactic is to
continue to act as if Russia were ultimately a constructive partner,
which just has to be brought back to its senses through intense
dialogue.
While Berlin wants to
offer carrots to bring Moscow back on the path of virtue, others think
the time for sticks has come. Washington is preparing measures to step
up economic pressure. But inside the EU there is no unity about the
proper reaction.
If Moscow succeeds in Ukraine, it will come to the conclusion that
it can act like an empire. An empire has no borders and doesn't respect
the borders of others.
Ulrich Speck
Ulrich Speck
The West is far from a
united stand and a forceful response. Worse, instead of keeping their
differences behind closed doors, Western cracks are all too visible,
emboldening Putin.
It's safe to assume that
the Western reaction is shaping Putin's course of action. Moscow fears
isolation and economic retaliation. The money that permits the Russian
leadership to pursue costly and risky foreign policy adventures comes in
large part from the EU, as payment for gas and oil. And substantial
parts of the investments of the Russian elite are in the EU as well.
But it doesn't look as
if the West is using its leverage. This caution may backfire. It may
incentivize Putin to go beyond the de facto-annexation of Crimea and try
to split larger parts away from Ukraine.
Western policymakers should raise their game and understand what is at stake.
If Russia goes beyond
Crimea, there is the risk of a major war with Ukraine. No government can
simply watch as another country invades its territory.
Acting like an empire
Beyond Ukraine, this
conflict is also a defining moment for future Russian foreign policy. If
Moscow succeeds in Ukraine, it will come to the conclusion that it can
act like an empire. An empire has no borders and doesn't respect the
borders of others.
Moscow's pretext of
protecting allegedly threatened Russian passport-holders could be used
against many countries. If the operation in Ukraine succeeds, it will
scare many neighboring countries and prompt them to try to buy off
Russia.
Safe borders and
sovereignty are core principles of the global order, enshrined in the
United Nations charter and in other documents -- many of which Russia
has signed. Russia is a stakeholder in this system, its U.N. Security
Council seat is an important element in ensuring its standing as a great
power.
It is also in Russia's
interests to insist on the sanctity of borders as it has itself a
stronger neighbor on its south-eastern side -- China. Moscow cannot put
the sovereignty of others into question without risking its own
sovereignty.
Power vacuum
What is at stake in Ukraine is broader than just the region.
If the EU and U.S.
accept Russia's land grab, they weaken the foundations of today's
international order, born out of the ashes of World War II and enshrined
in the U.N. charter.
A situation where
powerful states set conditions according to their own interests and
weaker ones have no choice but to accept is precisely what this charter
is aimed at preventing.
If one state can invade
another without being attacked, without having an international mandate
and a clear backing by international norms (such as the responsibility
to protect), the foundations of today's international order will be at
risk.
In the past, it was the
U.S. that promoted and guaranteed the U.N.-order. In the role of a
global quasi-sovereign, and faced with major threats, it sometimes
violated this principle itself. But these were exceptions to the overall
beneficial role the U.S. played in the promotion of a liberal
democratic order.
Nowadays, however,
Washington is diminishing its global footprint, with its taxpayers no
longer willing to bear the biggest chunk of the burden to uphold world
order.
The Kremlin has sensed a power vacuum and is stepping in.
Now the West must decide
whether to accept the new rules Russia is setting in its neighborhood
-- or whether it has the power and strength to defend an order which has
brought it decades of freedom, security and prosperity.
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READ: Opinion: Putin planning 'Soviet Union lite'
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