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"The Iraq-Syria border is.... increasingly immaterial," commented Charles Lister, a military analyst at the Brookings Doha Centre.
Isis breach of Iraq-Syria border merges two wars into one 'nightmarish reality'
Jihadi fighters celebrate advance with slick propaganda, but its enemies are responding on both sides of frontier
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An image from the
jihadist Twitter account Al-Baraka news allegedly shows Isis vehicles
driving on a newly cut road through the Syrian-Iraqi border between the
Iraqi Nineveh province and Al-Hassaka in Syria. Photograph: -/AFP/Getty
Images
Under a burning sun, fighters of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isis) sang and waved their automatic weapons and black jihadi flags as they celebrated breaching the lonely desert frontier between Iraq and Syria.
To the soundtrack of a haunting Quranic chant, they watched as a bulldozer burst through a sand berm separating Nineveh in Iraq from the neighbouring Syrian province of al Hassaka, followed by US-made Jeeps and Humvees with Iraqi army insignia that had been captured in the recent fighting.
The slick Isis propaganda machine sent the images out under the Twitter hashtag #SykesPicotOver – a gloating reference to the first world war Anglo-French agreement that secretly carved up the territories of the dying Ottoman Empire into British and French spheres of influence and (among others) new Arab nation states ruled from Baghdad and Damascus.
Yet jihadi advances are not only erasing the old borders and allowing Isis to claim it is in reach of its goal of creating a new Muslim caliphate, but also ensuring that the wars for Syria and Iraq have merged into one, each feeding on, affecting and sustaining the other.
Map showing area in Iraq and Syria under Isis control as of 18 June 2014. Graphic: the Guardian
Control of territory in north-eastern Syria helped Isis capture
Mosul, Iraq's third-largest city. Money and arms flow easily.
Croatian-made anti-tank weapons sent by Saudi Arabia via Jordan to
mainstream rebel forces in southern Syria found their way to Isis
fighters in Anbar province in Iraq. Last week convoys of trucks carrying
captured Iraqi weapons arrived in Hassaka. Equipment including tanks
has been moved to Raqqa in Syria, where Isis has its headquarters.
"The Iraq-Syria border is.... increasingly immaterial," commented Charles Lister, a military analyst at the Brookings Doha Centre. "Conflict on both sides of the border has become inherently interconnected." Comparisons are now being made with the way the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan became irrelevant for al-Qaida.
The effective erasure of the old border means that Isis can make tactical adjustments and new deployments in line with changing battlefield circumstances. It has acquired new strategic depth and more secure supply lines.
Its enemies are already responding – on both sides of the frontier. According to reports from Lebanon, Iraqi Shia fighters who have been fighting in Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad are heading home again to bolster Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq's prime minister, in his war against Isis and a wider Sunni insurgency.
Iraq Shia militiamen deployed to Damascus to guard the revered Sayyida Zeinab shrine — along with Iranian revolutionary guards - are soon likely to be protecting the Shia holy places of Najaf and Karbala from Isis and other Sunni groups seeking to ignite a sectarian civil war. Many are with the Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al-Haq, (League of the Righteous), an Iranian-backed force that is expected to spearhead the fightback against Isis. Men from the Lebanese Shia movement Hezbollah are filling the vacuum in Syria.
In another twist in the fast-moving situation, last weekend the Syrian air force staged its first raids on Isis bases in Raqqa, Hassakeh and Deir al-Zor. That was noteworthy because Assad's enemies have often accused him of tolerating Isis or tacitly cooperating with it in order to split rebel ranks and present himself as a secular bulwark against al-Qaida and jihadi fanaticism.
According to reports from Raqqa, Isis fighters inexplicably left their barracks 24 hours before the attack. In Deir al-Zor, planes seemed to fly in and out of Iraqi airspace, perhaps suggesting collaboration with Baghdad.
The Syrian National Coalition, the main western-backed opposition group, quickly dismissed the raids as "a ridiculous decoy". Assad, it claimed, "aims through this fake air strike against limited Isis administrative centres to send a message to the international community and to rebuild trust with it, after its close relationship with Isis was exposed".
Another more straightforward explanation, however, could be that developments in Iraq have forced the Syrian president to take the jihadis far more seriously than he appears to have done so far.
It was hard, though to argue with the coalition leader, Ahmad Jarba, who on Wednesday described "a nightmarish reality threatening the entire region" and warned that the "bloodbath that started in Syria is spreading to Iraq and unfortunately, is just the tip of the iceberg".
Isis, meanwhile, continues to reap propaganda benefits from its latest gains in Iraq. According to documents analysed by the US-based Institute for the Study of War, the group produces detailed annual reports on its operations and targets, presented with a clarity that speaks of clear state-building ambitions. It turns out that 2014 has been financially a very successful year, certainly helped by looting hundreds of millions of dollars from banks in Mosul – a haul one alarmed western diplomat described as "an absolute bonanza".
Experts caution, however, that it is important to see the weaknesses of Isis as well as its formidable strengths. "While al-Qaida and its affiliates are embracing a more patient, locally focused strategy, Isis manifests a determination for rapid, dramatic results," wrote Lister. "It's certainly just shown these in Iraq. But whether this will prove a more effective long-term strategy remains to be seen."
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To the soundtrack of a haunting Quranic chant, they watched as a bulldozer burst through a sand berm separating Nineveh in Iraq from the neighbouring Syrian province of al Hassaka, followed by US-made Jeeps and Humvees with Iraqi army insignia that had been captured in the recent fighting.
The slick Isis propaganda machine sent the images out under the Twitter hashtag #SykesPicotOver – a gloating reference to the first world war Anglo-French agreement that secretly carved up the territories of the dying Ottoman Empire into British and French spheres of influence and (among others) new Arab nation states ruled from Baghdad and Damascus.
Yet jihadi advances are not only erasing the old borders and allowing Isis to claim it is in reach of its goal of creating a new Muslim caliphate, but also ensuring that the wars for Syria and Iraq have merged into one, each feeding on, affecting and sustaining the other.
Map showing area in Iraq and Syria under Isis control as of 18 June 2014. Graphic: the Guardian
Control of territory in north-eastern Syria helped Isis capture
Mosul, Iraq's third-largest city. Money and arms flow easily.
Croatian-made anti-tank weapons sent by Saudi Arabia via Jordan to
mainstream rebel forces in southern Syria found their way to Isis
fighters in Anbar province in Iraq. Last week convoys of trucks carrying
captured Iraqi weapons arrived in Hassaka. Equipment including tanks
has been moved to Raqqa in Syria, where Isis has its headquarters."The Iraq-Syria border is.... increasingly immaterial," commented Charles Lister, a military analyst at the Brookings Doha Centre. "Conflict on both sides of the border has become inherently interconnected." Comparisons are now being made with the way the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan became irrelevant for al-Qaida.
The effective erasure of the old border means that Isis can make tactical adjustments and new deployments in line with changing battlefield circumstances. It has acquired new strategic depth and more secure supply lines.
Its enemies are already responding – on both sides of the frontier. According to reports from Lebanon, Iraqi Shia fighters who have been fighting in Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad are heading home again to bolster Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq's prime minister, in his war against Isis and a wider Sunni insurgency.
Iraq Shia militiamen deployed to Damascus to guard the revered Sayyida Zeinab shrine — along with Iranian revolutionary guards - are soon likely to be protecting the Shia holy places of Najaf and Karbala from Isis and other Sunni groups seeking to ignite a sectarian civil war. Many are with the Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al-Haq, (League of the Righteous), an Iranian-backed force that is expected to spearhead the fightback against Isis. Men from the Lebanese Shia movement Hezbollah are filling the vacuum in Syria.
In another twist in the fast-moving situation, last weekend the Syrian air force staged its first raids on Isis bases in Raqqa, Hassakeh and Deir al-Zor. That was noteworthy because Assad's enemies have often accused him of tolerating Isis or tacitly cooperating with it in order to split rebel ranks and present himself as a secular bulwark against al-Qaida and jihadi fanaticism.
According to reports from Raqqa, Isis fighters inexplicably left their barracks 24 hours before the attack. In Deir al-Zor, planes seemed to fly in and out of Iraqi airspace, perhaps suggesting collaboration with Baghdad.
The Syrian National Coalition, the main western-backed opposition group, quickly dismissed the raids as "a ridiculous decoy". Assad, it claimed, "aims through this fake air strike against limited Isis administrative centres to send a message to the international community and to rebuild trust with it, after its close relationship with Isis was exposed".
Another more straightforward explanation, however, could be that developments in Iraq have forced the Syrian president to take the jihadis far more seriously than he appears to have done so far.
It was hard, though to argue with the coalition leader, Ahmad Jarba, who on Wednesday described "a nightmarish reality threatening the entire region" and warned that the "bloodbath that started in Syria is spreading to Iraq and unfortunately, is just the tip of the iceberg".
Isis, meanwhile, continues to reap propaganda benefits from its latest gains in Iraq. According to documents analysed by the US-based Institute for the Study of War, the group produces detailed annual reports on its operations and targets, presented with a clarity that speaks of clear state-building ambitions. It turns out that 2014 has been financially a very successful year, certainly helped by looting hundreds of millions of dollars from banks in Mosul – a haul one alarmed western diplomat described as "an absolute bonanza".
Experts caution, however, that it is important to see the weaknesses of Isis as well as its formidable strengths. "While al-Qaida and its affiliates are embracing a more patient, locally focused strategy, Isis manifests a determination for rapid, dramatic results," wrote Lister. "It's certainly just shown these in Iraq. But whether this will prove a more effective long-term strategy remains to be seen."
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