Results: We model the short-term growth rate of the disease in the
affected West African countries and estimate the basic reproductive
number to be in the range 1.5 − 2.0 (interval at the 1/10 relative
likelihood). We simulated the international spreading of the outbreak
and provide the estimate for the probability of Ebola virus disease case
importation in countries across the world. Results indicate that the
short-term (3 and 6 weeks) probability of international spread outside
the African region is small, but not negligible. The extension of the
outbreak is more likely occurring in African countries, increasing the
risk of international dissemination on a longer time scale.
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worked on a model to estimate the growth of the disease,
So, the longer the Ebola Virus has hosts the more likely it will mutate and be airborne eventually. It is said some strains are already carried by coughing to others already through the air.
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