Friday, October 31, 2014

The Tipping Point:The Evolving Ebola Crisis

There is an article in the latest Time Magazine called "Missing in Action" which is why the World Health Organization failed to stop Ebola.

However, I think it wasn't just WHO I think it was the whole world failing to notice because of Putin, Ukraine, Crimea, Assad, ISIS etc. etc. etc. So, I don't think the whole blame can be put on WHO either. I think the whole world was distracted. Also, if you study the history of previous Ebola outbreaks they were quite small. This time it is possible someone or some government got involved and Genetically mutated the virus to kill thousands to millions which it might be on it's way to right now wherever it goes to that doesn't have a medical science infrastructure in place or doesn't have compulsory scientific education like in the U.S.

So, if it was Genetically engineered as a depopulation device by whoever, whatever WHO might have done wouldn't have worked anyway very likely. We likely would have the same outcome as now. Also, if it were genetically engineered by an individual, company or nation they likely engineered it to do what it is doing and eventually go airborne within a year or two.

However, I thought looking at the numbers progression might be useful to some or all of you so here is the numbers progression to now:
December 2013- 3 deaths and 4 cases
January     2014-10 deaths and 10 cases
February   2014-34 deaths and 39 cases
March       2014-82 deaths and 130 cases
April         2014-158 deaths and 238 cases
May          2014- 224 deaths and 420 cases
June          2014- 467 deaths and 759 cases
July           2014- 826 deaths and  1,440 cases
August      2014- 1818 deaths and 3417 cases
September 2014- 3400 deaths and 7492 cases
October     2014- 4922 deaths and 13,703 cases

Those of you who are mathematicians can do the geometric progression of this disease as it moves forward so if you take these numbers you can do the geometric progression. Whether it is mathematical or not you will get an idea of what might happen within 1 to 5 to 10 years if this progression isn't slowed down.

You basically have the first years progression of registered cases so far. However, many many more died than were registered here. These are the only ones they registered as cases and deaths.

These statistics are from the "Beyond the Stars" issue of Time magazine November 10th 2014.

If I take the July figures and compare them to the October 2014 figures there are approximately 10 times as many cases 4 months later. If this progression holds true every 4 months the number of cases will be 10 times what they were 4 months before. So, given this progression we should be expecting 130,000 cases 4 months from now in January 2015. However, technically this could be mitigated by medical teams and military medical teams being involved from around the world also. 

If we take this to April with this same progression it would be 1,300,000 cases and in July 2015 it would  be 13,000,000 cases. And by next October 2015 it would be 130,000,000 cases which is more than many countries on earth have as populations and more than the number of people that died in World War II.

Let me continue this progression so you fully see the problem here.

Next January 2016 if this progression holds we have now 1 billion 300 million cases. By the following April we have more cases than everyone presently alive on earth.

Of course that isn't going to happen. But, the 1,300,000,000 might actually happen by a year from January given present progressions of cases if enough isn't done by nations in the next 4 months to prevent it's spread.

And like AIDS we might not be able to stop it spreading. Or it could  go airborne in which case almost everyone on earth eventually will be exposed to it sort of like the common cold or flu. In that case about 1/2 of everyone on earth could potentially get Ebola and reduce world populations by 1/3 to 1/2 from what they presently are.

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