IF Israel is contemplating what Life without Assad might be like they should also contemplate what life without Lebanon would be like too. Because once Assad goes that is where ISIS is likely to go next after Hezbollah there.
Rebel advances in Syria leave Israel contemplating life without Assad
| Haaretz | - |
Israel's defense establishment has started keeping an even closer eye on Syria's
civil war, given the growing assessments that President Bashar Assad's
regime is having trouble repelling the rebel onslaught and is rapidly
losing its grip on some of the ...
Rebel advances in Syria leave Israel contemplating life without Assad
IDF deputy chief of staff says Syrian army ‘has ceased to exist’ and that Hezbollah’s casualties are significantly higher than previously believed.
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A man evacuates a child from a
building following a reported barrel bomb attack by Syrian government
forces on the northern Syrian city of Aleppo, on May 30, 2015.
Photo by AFP
By
Jack Khoury
| May 31, 2015 | 2:50 PM
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By
Haaretz
| May 30, 2015 | 9:25 AM
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By
Zvi Bar'el
| May 29, 2015 | 1:40 AM
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Israel’s defense establishment has started keeping an even closer eye on Syria’s civil war, given the growing assessments that President Bashar Assad’s
regime is having trouble repelling the rebel onslaught and is rapidly
losing its grip on some of the areas still under its control.
This week, the rebels took over Ariha, a town in northern Syria that directly threatens the Alawite enclave on the Mediterranean coast.
The Alawite sect, to which Assad belongs, is the regime’s main power base.
“De facto, the Syrian army has ceased to exist,” Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, the Israel Defense Forces’ deputy chief of staff, said on Monday.
The numerous defeats that the regime suffered recently are putting growing pressure on its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah. This was evident not only in last month’s rare series of speeches by the Shi’ite group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah – three in one week – but also in the organization’s massive drive to recruit more Lebanese to fight in Syria against Islamic State, the radical Sunni organization also known as ISIS or ISIL.
The Israeli defense establishment believes Hezbollah suffered at least 80 fatalities during the past month’s battles in the Qalamoun Mountains, on the Syria-Lebanon border.
“This isn’t a good moment – not for Hezbollah, not for Assad and not for Iran in Syria,” one defense official said on Monday. He added that the Assad camp faces a dilemma over whether to continue fighting with the same intensity in the Qalamoun region, or to focus on defending the Alawite enclave and its major cities, Latakia and Tartus.
The official said Israel is currently trying to verify assessments that Hezbollah has lost about 1,000 fighters in Syria since the civil war began four years ago – significantly more than the 700 fatalities that had been the prevailing assessment until recently. He added that Hezbollah is using a wide variety of weaponry in Syria, including rockets and explosive-laden drones.
This week, the Al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front and a coalition of eight other rebel groups – known as Jaish al-Fatah (Army of Conquest) – captured the town of Ariha, on the western edge of Idlib Province. It borders the mountain ridge that overlooks the Alawite enclave from the north; over the past few days, the rebels have used this ridge to fire rockets at the suburbs of Latakia.
The rebels also acquired large quantities of weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles, from the Syrian Army bases that they captured in Idlib.
ISIS isn’t part of the rebel coalition operating in Idlib, but has joined the fight against Assad’s forces around the major cities of Homs and Aleppo. The Arab media is full of speculation that the rebels are also planning a new offensive in southern Syria, near the city of Daraa.
In response to the recent defeats it has suffered, the regime has stepped up its airstrikes – including a massive use of barrel bombs, which cause heavy civilian casualties.
Speaking at a conference in Tel Aviv, Golan said that from Israel’s perspective, the strategic situation on the northern border “may be better than ever before,” despite the many potential threats, because thousands of Hezbollah fighters are busy in Syria and the Syrian Army has effectively ceased to exist.
Nevertheless, he added, this convenient situation is unlikely to last. Meanwhile, Hezbollah “has acquired operational capabilities that no terrorist organization ever had in the past.” And while Syrian rebels aren’t currently targeting Israel from the Golan Heights, that, too, could change, he warned.
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This week, the rebels took over Ariha, a town in northern Syria that directly threatens the Alawite enclave on the Mediterranean coast.
The Alawite sect, to which Assad belongs, is the regime’s main power base.
“De facto, the Syrian army has ceased to exist,” Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, the Israel Defense Forces’ deputy chief of staff, said on Monday.
The numerous defeats that the regime suffered recently are putting growing pressure on its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah. This was evident not only in last month’s rare series of speeches by the Shi’ite group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah – three in one week – but also in the organization’s massive drive to recruit more Lebanese to fight in Syria against Islamic State, the radical Sunni organization also known as ISIS or ISIL.
The Israeli defense establishment believes Hezbollah suffered at least 80 fatalities during the past month’s battles in the Qalamoun Mountains, on the Syria-Lebanon border.
“This isn’t a good moment – not for Hezbollah, not for Assad and not for Iran in Syria,” one defense official said on Monday. He added that the Assad camp faces a dilemma over whether to continue fighting with the same intensity in the Qalamoun region, or to focus on defending the Alawite enclave and its major cities, Latakia and Tartus.
The official said Israel is currently trying to verify assessments that Hezbollah has lost about 1,000 fighters in Syria since the civil war began four years ago – significantly more than the 700 fatalities that had been the prevailing assessment until recently. He added that Hezbollah is using a wide variety of weaponry in Syria, including rockets and explosive-laden drones.
This week, the Al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front and a coalition of eight other rebel groups – known as Jaish al-Fatah (Army of Conquest) – captured the town of Ariha, on the western edge of Idlib Province. It borders the mountain ridge that overlooks the Alawite enclave from the north; over the past few days, the rebels have used this ridge to fire rockets at the suburbs of Latakia.
The rebels also acquired large quantities of weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles, from the Syrian Army bases that they captured in Idlib.
ISIS isn’t part of the rebel coalition operating in Idlib, but has joined the fight against Assad’s forces around the major cities of Homs and Aleppo. The Arab media is full of speculation that the rebels are also planning a new offensive in southern Syria, near the city of Daraa.
In response to the recent defeats it has suffered, the regime has stepped up its airstrikes – including a massive use of barrel bombs, which cause heavy civilian casualties.
Speaking at a conference in Tel Aviv, Golan said that from Israel’s perspective, the strategic situation on the northern border “may be better than ever before,” despite the many potential threats, because thousands of Hezbollah fighters are busy in Syria and the Syrian Army has effectively ceased to exist.
Nevertheless, he added, this convenient situation is unlikely to last. Meanwhile, Hezbollah “has acquired operational capabilities that no terrorist organization ever had in the past.” And while Syrian rebels aren’t currently targeting Israel from the Golan Heights, that, too, could change, he warned.
end quote from:
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