An intolerable unimaginable heat forecast for Persian Gulf
WASHINGTON
(AP) — If carbon dioxide emissions continue at their current pace, by
the end of century parts of the Persian Gulf will sometimes be just too
hot for the human body to tolerate, a new study says.
Associated Press
An intolerable unimaginable heat forecast for Persian Gulf
By SETH BORENSTEIN
October 26, 2015 2:48 PM
FILE In this June 10, 2010 file
photo, an Asian laborer avoids the direct sun by working behind a
wooden sign, as he works on a manhole alongside of an under construction
road in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Parts of the Persian Gulf by the
end of the century will on occasion will be just too hot for the human
body to tolerate, if carbon dioxide emissions continue on current trend,
a new study says. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili, File)
WASHINGTON (AP) — If
carbon dioxide emissions continue at their current pace, by the end of
century parts of the Persian Gulf will sometimes be just too hot for the
human body to tolerate, a new study says.
How hot? The
heat index — which combines heat and humidity — may hit 165 to 170
degrees (74 to 77 Celsius) for at least six hours, according to numerous
computer simulations in the new study. That's so hot that the human
body can't get rid of heat. The elderly and ill are hurt most by current
heat waves, but the future is expected to be so hot that healthy, fit
people would be endangered, health experts say.
"You can go to a
wet sauna and put the temperature up to 35 (Celsius or 95 degrees
Fahrenheit) or so. You can bear it for a while, now think of that at an
extended exposure" of six or more hours, said study co-author Elfatih
Eltahir, an MIT environmental engineering professor.
While
humans have been around, Earth has not seen that type of prolonged,
oppressive combination of heat and humidity, Eltahir said. But with the
unique geography and climate of the Persian Gulf and increased warming
projected if heat-trapping gas emissions continue to rise at current
rates, it will happen every decade or so by the end of the century,
according to the study published Monday in the journal Nature Climate
Change.
This would be the type
of heat that would make deadly heat wave in Europe in 2003 that killed
more than 70,000 people "look like a refreshing day or event," said
study co-author Jeremy Pal of Loyola Marymount University
It would
still be rare, and cities such as Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Doha wouldn't
quite be uninhabitable, thanks to air conditioning. But for people
living and working outside or those with no air conditioning, it would
be intolerable, said Eltahir and Pal. While Mecca won't be quite as hot,
the heat will likely still cause many deaths during the annual hajj
pilgrimage, Eltahir said.
"Some
of the scariest prospects from a changing clime involve conditions
completely outside the range of human experience," Carnegie Institute
for Science climate researcher Chris Field, who wasn't part of the
study, wrote in an email. "If we don't limit climate change to avoid
extreme heat or mugginess, the people in these regions will likely need
to find other places to live."
Said
Dr. Howard Frumkin, dean of the University of Washington school of
public health, who wasn't part of the research: "When the ambient
temperatures are extremely high, as projected in this paper, then
exposed people can and do die. The implication s of this paper for the
Gulf region are frightening."
But if the world limits future
heat-trapping gas emissions — even close to the amount pledged recently
by countries around the world ahead of climate talks later this year in
Paris — that intolerable level of heat can be avoided, Eltahir said.
___
Online:
Nature Climate Change: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/
___
Seth Borenstein can be followed at http://twitter.com/borenbears
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