Nate Silver: Trump Would Win If The Election Were Today
"In an election held today, Trump would be a narrow favorite, with a 57 percent chance of winning the Electoral College."
If
the election was held today, Donald Trump would beat Hillary Clinton,
according to political forecaster Nate Silver of ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight.
Using the site’s NowCast — a poll-based forecasting model that
calculates the probability of a candidate winning if they election were
held today — Silver says
the Republican nominee would have a 57 percent chance of winning the
Electoral College if presidential election votes were cast today. While
this data comes off the heels of the GOP convention in Cleveland,
Trump’s post-nomination bump is bigger than Clinton’s decline, which
suggests the real-estate mogul has snagged support from some undecided
and third-party voters.
Silver noted polling data around convention time is historically
inaccurate, but even before the GOP named Trump as its nominee in
Cleveland last week, Clinton’s support dipped in the polls. The
scandal-plagued former Secretary of State’s waning support shouldn’t be a
reason for Democrats to panic just yet, though, as Clinton receive
bounce in the polls after the Democratic National Convention in
Philadelphia this week:
So if the race is still tied two or three weeks from now — or Trump is ahead — then it will really be time for Democrats to panic and for Trump fans to rejoice. For now, we can say that Clinton isn’t just going to glide to victory. Trump has a real chance at becoming president, and although Clinton is still favored, she’s already had a bumpy ride.
Silver’s proclamation about Trump’s electoral chances was salt on the
wound for Democrats this week. The national Democratic party is
currently dealing with its own e-mail scandal following the leak of
thousands of DNC e-mails leaked this week by Wikileaks. DNC chair Debbie
Wasserman Schultz has already announced she will step down at the end of the week
and will not oversee the convention proceedings. Wasserman Schultz was
forced out after leaked e-mails showed that she and her staff were
running interference for Hillary Clinton throughout the Democratic
presidential primary this year.
Clinton will officially accept her party’s nomination on Thursday night in Philadelphia.
Photo People Magazine
Bre Payton is a staff writer at The Federalist. Follow her on Twitter.
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