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ReportArctic Sea Ice

Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO₂ emission

1. Dirk Notz¹,*,
2. Julienne Stroeve²,³

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1. ↵*Corresponding author. Email: dirk.notz@mpimet.mpg.de

Science  03 Nov 2016:

DOI: 10.1126/science.aag2345

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Abstract

Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Since climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we here use a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative CO₂ emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 m² of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO₂ emission. Based on this sensitivity, Arctic sea-ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 Gt of CO₂ emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled Transient Climate Response.

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