begin quote from:
Life expectancy is expected to soar -- except in US
South Korea will take lead in life expectancy by 2030, study predicts
Story highlights
- Life expectancy at birth is projected to cross the 90-year mark by 2030
- Experts believe we are not yet near our limit for longevity
(CNN)Average life expectancy will increase globally by 2030, both at birth and at the age of 65, according to a new study.
The
two time points help define when lifespans in a population are
extending due to improvements in maternal and child health as well as
improved adult health.
The average
for women at birth will exceed 85 years in many countries, but South
Korea is projected to lead the way with a life expectancy of 90.8 years.
In 2015, global average life expectancy at birth was 71.4 years, according to the World Health Organization.
Unhealthier
lifestyles among men, including higher rates of smoking and alcohol
consumption, have long meant a greater life expectancy for women, say
the researchers.
Life
expectancy among men born in South Korea in 2030 is therefore predicted
to be 84.1 years, according to the study, published Tuesday in the Lancet.
But the study authors believe this gap between the sexes is now shrinking as lifestyles become more similar.
"The
biggest result is that ... at least one group is going to break the
90-year barrier," said Majid Ezzati, professor of global environmental
health at Imperial College London, referring to the predictions among
South Korean women. Ezzati led the study and highlighted that many
experts had believed the average would never exceed 90.
"This shows that even if there is a limit to longevity, we are nowhere near it," he said. "We should be planning for more life."
The
analysis included data on mortality and longevity patterns from 35
industrialized nations, including both high-income countries and
emerging economies.
US continues to lag
In
Europe, French women and Swiss women are predicted to have the highest
life expectancy, with averages of 88.6 and 84 years respectively.
Among
predictions for high-income countries, the lowest life expectancy at
birth is likely to be in the US, with an average of 83.3 years for women
and 79.5 years for men -- similar to Mexico and Croatia.
"They
still have relatively high rates of young and middle-age mortality,"
Ezzati told CNN, referring to the countries with lower life
expectancies. "People have a relatively high risk of dying in their 40s
or 50s."
There are many reasons
for deaths in this age range, Ezzati said, including greater obesity
rates and their associated health risks as well as homicides and road
accidents. Lack of universal health care in countries like the US is
also thought to play a role, the study says.
The lowest life expectancy projections overall were for women in Macedonia and men in Serbia, according to the study.
"A lot of this is driven by inequality, (which) brings down the national average," Ezzati said.
The
research team calculated life expectancy using data on the age at which
people die across a population. High childhood mortality rates and
greater rates of death among young people, for example due to injuries
and violence, will bring an average down.
In
contrast, greater equality, more comprehensive health care and healthy
diets and lifestyles embedded in a culture can bring this up -- as with
South Korea.
"Places
like South Korea and some emerging economies, Switzerland and Canada do
very well," Ezzati said. "South Korea has had remarkable success."
Ezzati
believes the secret to South Korea's success has been the country's
investment in childhood nutrition, education and technology as well as
low blood pressure, low levels of smoking and good access to health
care.
"An equitable way of taking up this knowledge has been the driver," he said.
Overtaking Japan's lead
Meanwhile,
countries like Japan, long revered for their longevity, are expected to
see just small increases in life expectancy. "The Japanese story has
started to come to an end," Ezzati said, adding that while the Japanese
culture is known for healthy diets and active lifestyles, "that's
beginning to change."
"They
still have low obesity and low blood pressure ... and are still doing
well, but some things are catching up," he said, highlighting Western
influences such as diet.
"South
Korea has caught up with Japan as its standard of living has increased,"
said Sarah Harper, professor of gerontology at the University of
Oxford. "But in many parts of Asia, young people are eating Western
diets. ... The (previously) healthy diet may not be sustained as young
people reach older ages."
The
findings are hoped to help countries learn healthy changes by example
and, more important, to help policymakers prepare for their populations'
changing demographics.
"What
South Korea has done goes completely against some Western countries ...
against the prosperity agenda," Ezzati said, adding that we need to
think about "social care, planning and pensions in an aging population."
Harper,
said the new projections are, "very much in line with what other
projections are showing." She agreed that countries in Asia are leading
the way but are also seeing change among their younger population.
She
further agreed that inequality is likely to be an underlying factor for
why some high-income countries are seeing lower life expectancy
predictions. "The US spends more of its budget on health care than any
other country in the world. Some say this is due to the huge amount of
inequality," she said. "The Scandinavian countries do well. ... They're
counted as more equal and tend to have higher life expectancy outcomes."
No comments:
Post a Comment