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Analysis: Dread hangs over Washington
Dread hangs over Washington as Manafort, Gates turn themselves in
Story highlights
- The charges could be the first step in a series of actions by the special counsel
- The news will complicate the White House's argument that the Russia drama is a Democratic plot
(CNN)The arrest of President Donald Trump's former campaign manager Paul Manafort Monday and former Trump campaign official Rick Gates saddled the White House with a grave new political reality.
By taking one or more people into custody, a prospect first reported by CNN Friday,
Justice Department special counsel Robert Mueller ushers in a perilous
time for the White House, reflecting the gravity of the investigation
into Russia's interference in the 2016 election and alleged collusion by
Trump's associates.
The
special counsel announced that Manafort and Gates have been indicted by
a federal grand jury. The 12-count indictment is on "conspiracy against
the United States, conspiracy to launder money, unregistered agent of a
foreign principal, false and misleading FARA statements, false
statements, and seven counts of failure to file reports of foreign bank
and financial accounts."
Mueller's
decision to examine Manafort's past business relationships with Russia
and possible tax arrangements offer a signal how he interprets his
understanding of the nature of his mandate, which could have
implications for how he proceeds in his investigations into others in
Trump's circle.
Just the idea that
someone who was once close to Trump has been charged with a federal
crime -- even if as yet it's unrelated to the 2016 campaign -- brings
political problems of its own.
Trump
and his team deny any wrongdoing, and so far there is no conclusive
evidence from Mueller's closely held investigation or several
congressional probes of nefarious links with the Russians.
At
minimum, news of charges will complicate the White House's argument
that the Russia drama is nothing but a drummed up Democratic plot born
of despair at Hillary Clinton's shocking loss last November, and be a
distraction from the Republican tax reform effort this week.
First step
More
significantly, the charges could be the first step in a series of
actions by the special counsel that strike at the heart of Trump's inner
political and family circle, and could even put his presidency in
jeopardy.
But the immediate
political fallout of whatever unfolds in the coming days depends on who
is initially targeted by Mueller, their proximity to Trump, and how the
President reacts to this threshold being crossed.
"The
Dems are using this terrible (and bad for our country) Witch Hunt for
evil politics, but the R's ... are now fighting back like never before,"
Trump tweeted Sunday. "There is so much GUILT by Democrats/Clinton, and
now the facts are pouring out. DO SOMETHING!"
The special counsel has
taken up several strands of inquiry, including into the business affairs
of Manafort, claims that members of the President's campaign team --
such as former national security adviser Michael Flynn -- transgressed
in their alleged contacts with Russian officials and whether the
President's dismissal of FBI Director James Comey amounted to
obstruction of justice.
Sending a message to Mueller?
Trump's
Sunday venting posed an important question that may be answered this
week: Will Trump be able to direct his anger in a way that does not put
him in deeper legal and political jeopardy or anger the special counsel?
On
many occasions throughout the Russia episode, Trump's conduct has
appeared to expose him to deeper risk, for example over the Comey firing
that led to Mueller's appointment. The President's political
vulnerability is becoming more acute as well -- an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll Sunday put his approval rating at 38% -- the lowest point of his presidency.
Ty
Cobb, the President's top counsel, sought to make clear that Trump's
Twitter eruption Sunday was not an attempt to antagonize Mueller.
"Contrary
to what many have suggested, the President's comments today are
unrelated to the activities of the special counsel, with whom he
continues to cooperate," Cobb told CNN's Jeff Zeleny.
But
given the timing of the Twitter response on a weekend dominated by
CNN's reporting of impending arrests, Cobb's explanation was open to
question.
The President's anger
appeared to represent a clear attempt to shape the political battlefield
after a week in which the White House and allies sought to muddy the
narrative on the Russia investigation.
There
is still rampant speculation in Washington that Trump could seek to
dismiss Mueller, a move that could trigger a constitutional crisis and
put Republican leaders in Congress in a dicey political position.
The
Wall Street Journal editorial board and some conservative columnists
are calling on Mueller to resign, saying his history with the FBI makes
it impossible for him to fairly investigate the bureau's involvement in
the Russia drama.
Should the first
charges be focused away from the President, such as regarding business
dealings unrelated to Trump, he could also use the moment to declare
victory and say it's time to wrap up an investigation that couldn't find
any collusion between Russia and the presidential campaign.
Impact on agenda
Signs
Mueller is moving forward could also deepen divisions within the
Republican Party, after several senators accused Trump of debasing the
nation, at a time when unity is imperative for the tax reform push.
Questions
about the investigation are also likely to pursue Trump on the most
important foreign trip of his presidency so far when he goes to Asia
later this week, with a nuclear showdown with North Korea reaching a
boiling point.
Preet Bharara,
former US Attorney for the southern district of New York, said Sunday
that Trump's reaction to Monday's expected drama will be crucial.
"I
would look for a couple of things, one, whether or not Donald Trump has
some reaction and talks in a way that could be used against him in the
future, because Bob Mueller would do that," Bharara said on CNN's "State
of the Union."
"And the second
thing I would look at is to see if the President of the United States is
sending some kind of message to the potential defendant or other
witnesses."
Going after Clinton
The
White House is torching a familiar foe, Clinton, highlighting a sale of
a uranium firm to Russian investors while she was secretary of state.
It also seized on a Washington Post report
that the Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee hired a
law firm that engaged opposition research firm Fusion GPS that compiled
a dossier including salacious allegations about Trump's alleged links
to Russia.
Trump claims this shows
that Clinton -- and not the President -- should be investigated for
colluding with Russia to influence the election.
Such
a view, however, ignores the conclusion of US intelligence agencies
that Russia developed a plot to interfere in the election in 2016, and
over time developed a preference for Trump.
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