Aden, Yemen (CNN)From
atop al-Manara mountain, just east of the Yemeni capital Sanaa, it is
possible to think that fighting here might be over soon.
The
strategic high ground dominates surrounding Houthi territory below. A
swift advance from here could dislodge the Iranian-backed rebels, either
pushing them out of the capital or into meaningful peace talks.
But
that view would overlook the complexities of Yemen's war, as well as
the paucity of military hardware that we witnessed on the hours-long
drive during our bone-shaking ascent up the 8,500-foot-high plateau.
Abu
Aseel was married three days before this picture was taken. He went
back to Yemen's frontlines shortly after the wedding and can be seen
here holding Qat, a herbal stimulant, and a national past-time.
The
mountaintop is scattered with a rocket launcher here, an armored
vehicle there, soldiers camped in precarious tents clinging to the rock
face above precipitous drops, and donkeys used to resupply some of the
more far-flung front line outposts.
Yemen's
government troops are not a vast military force capable of a swift
decapitation of their enemy, but an army holding the high ground for
military necessity, advancing when and where they can.
I
have been brought to the war-torn country by Yemen's information
minister and the government army's regional commander. Their coalition
partners, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, facilitated the
trip.
All
of the military, civilian and coalition representatives we met in
government-controlled Yemen insist that they have no intention of racing
down their military outposts on the high ground and capturing the
rebel-held capital of Sanaa.
In addition to Sanaa, the Houthis control much of the country's north.
It's
not the lack of military hardware that holds back the government, they
say, but a reluctance to crush the Houthis with overwhelming military
force. The government is convinced that it is popular in Sanaa, and is
wary that an aggressive military campaign, similar to the Iraqi army's
fight to oust ISIS in Mosul, would diminish that support. That, in turn,
would hinder the ability to reunify Yemen.
Yemen and its separatists
There
is, of course, no guarantee that the government can achieve
reunification. Further south, government-aligned southern separatists
bridle at sharing power with a northern government, and have recently
renewed clashes with the internationally recognized government of
President Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi.
Yemen
has been through three civil wars that pitted North against South over
the past four decades. It was a little over a quarter century ago when
the country united north and south.
Today,
the government forces we are with outside the capital are fighting
Houthis and some al Qaeda. In the south, where fighting has broken out
around the port city of Aden, the situation is more complicated.
See the civil war's frontline in 360°02:22
After
the Houthis first advanced on government-controlled Aden in 2015, it
was the southern separatists who first restored some semblance of
stability to the city and expelled the rebels from the international
airport.
Over the following two
years, the separatists forged an uneasy alliance with Hadi's government,
and the Saudi-Emirati coalition backing it.
Several
southern separatists I spoke to while in Aden were frustrated with
Hadi's government, which, they said, had them do all the fighting and
offered little in return.
An
alliance between major parties in coalition-controlled Yemen is vital
if Hadi's government is going to fight from its bases in the south and
the east to pressure the Houthis in the north and center. But the
southern separatists we talked to sounded unwilling to fight northward
through Houthi lines for territory that they may never call their own.
Yemeni build-up
The
Arab spring in 2011 can be considered the starting point of Yemen's
latest political saga. Longtime strongman Ali Abdullah Saleh, whose
presidency presided over the unification of north and south in 1990, was
nearly assassinated. In 2012, the man who famously described running
Yemen as "dancing on the heads of snakes" was ousted from power.
Hadi
was elected to the presidency. But by then, the centrifugal forces
pulling the country apart were too strong for the new president to
control. The near mortally injured Saleh had recovered from the 2011
assassination attempt and added his leverage to the country's
unraveling.
Saleh
then forged an alliance with his previous nemeses, the Houthis, who
belong to the same minority Zaidi sect of Shia Islam as the former
president. From their traditional base in the northern mountains, the
rebel group has long aspired to expand its power. The Saleh-Houthi pact
sowed chaos, enabling a rebel takeover of the capital and much of the
rest of the country.
Soldiers
first claimed the mountainous terrain on foot and used donkeys to carry
equipment and supplies. Now the bone-grinding pickup trucks have made
the journey to the shifting frontline easier.
Several
months later, the group forced Hadi to flee south, to Yemen's second
city, Aden, and ultimately out of the country with the help of his Saudi
sponsors.
Hadi remains in Riyadh
and has yet to return, but his Prime Minister and other officials have
established a de facto capital in Aden, from where they try to run the
country with the help of the Saudis and Emiratis.
It
sounds, perhaps, more capable than it is. The Prime Minister told me
the country's shaky security means he can rarely get more than 21 of his
36 ministers together for cabinet meetings in his highly fortified
residence.
Even
so, he told me, they are defeating al Qaeda, which controls swathes of
Yemen, with the help of the United States. He said they have been able
to stabilize the weak Yemeni currency, the riyal, with the help of Saudi
Arabia.
He added that the
Houthis have been undermining the riyal by printing the currency on
illegal printing presses smuggled into the country with the help of
Iran.
Yemen as it stands
That
some southern separatists are clashing with the government is perhaps
an indication that the war has entered a more focused, albeit not final,
phase toward the Houthis' defeat.
The
government claims to control 85% of Yemeni territory. However, the
Houthis control several large population centers, including the capital,
as well as 50% to 60% of the country's resources, according to the
prime minister.
Former President
Saleh's death last November -- which coalition officials say was
orchestrated by Iran -- may also be contributing to current separatist
tensions.
The
internationally recognized government has made the port city of Aden
its base, but a southern separatist movement here threatens the fragile
stability of a city recovering from civil war.
Even
while Saleh was backing the Houthis, the Saudis figured that he would
ultimately switch allegiance to his former Saudi allies. A Saudi
official said they refrained from trying to kill the former president,
seeing in him a useful figure in helping unify support for the
government.
They may have been
right. Very soon after Saleh began speaking positively about the
government, he was killed. Houthis were quick to claim responsibility
for his assassination.
Coalition
officials I talked to believe Saleh's death will leave the Houthis
without the political cover his large GPO party gave them. They believe
it makes the Houthis vulnerable, as they are a minority religious rebel
force and a broad-based political movement, but not a concentrated
party.
Still, many southern separatists rejoiced at Saleh's death. His years in power had subjected the group to hardship.
Perhaps
a bigger blow to the coalition, particularly the Emiratis who have been
giving sanctuary to Saleh's son for several years, is that many in the
south see no role for any of Saleh's family or his forces.
The
fraying of ties between the separatists and the government presents yet
another division that hampers Yemen's path to peace. It explains why
some Yemenis are not only angry with the Houthis' backers, Iran, but
also with the government's coalition partners, Saudi Arabia and the UAE,
which they see as making it harder for Yemenis to find compromise.
A
Saudi C130 Hercules prepares for takeoff at Aden's airport, once the
site of heavy battles between Houthis and the self-proclaimed popular
resistance of Aden.
As
we drove out of the desert town of Mar'ib toward al-Manara mountain,
our driver, a former policeman who fled his hometown when Houthis took
control, told us Yemenis alone cannot be blamed for failing to find
peace.
He was part of the
government delegation taking us to the front lines. In his view, the
country's branch of the Muslim Brotherhood was the single most powerful
political group in Yemen.
Without the Muslim Brotherhood's support, he said, negotiating a final peace deal could be near impossible.
Both
the Saudis and the Emiratis are having a hard time accepting that the
Brotherhood would have a powerful role in Yemen's future. Saudi Arabia
and the UAE view the Brotherhood as a stepping stone to al Qaeda.
In
short, our driver was telling us that while the government's coalition
partners were entirely necessary to defeating the Houthis, they also
posed a hurdle to peace.
His
assessment may have been an oversimplification. Still, the Brotherhood's
de facto leader General Ali Mohsin, commander of the first armored
division and one of the most powerful men in Yemen under Saleh's rule,
has been spending a lot of time in Riyadh recently, talking with Saudi officials.
A growing liability
The
Saudis want the war in Yemen wrapped up fast; a failed state there
exploited by al Qaeda and ISIS is a direct threat to their own
stability.
In recent months, the
need to find peace has become even more pressing. Late last year, the
Houthis began a campaign of launching Iranian-made ballistic missiles at
Riyadh and other Saudi cities, risking huge civilian casualties.
The United Nations says Iran has not done enough to stop the ballistic missiles from being transferred either directly or indirectly to Houthi control.
The
Houthis have also threatened international shipping in the Red Sea,
through which 10% of global maritime trade passes. The Saudis say they
have destroyed Houthi attack boats equipped with Iranian military
hardware.
Yemen's war is having a
pernicious effect on regional stability, raising tensions with Tehran as
well as threatening millions of people with starvation and disease.
Thousands
of civilians have already been killed in the fighting, millions are
starving and many survivors are also at risk from cholera, aid agencies
say.
From al-Manara mountain, it is
easy to have a clear view of the battlefield ahead. But it is far
harder to see how the battle will be fought and peace finally won.
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