Typhoon Jongdari to batter Japan, end deadly heat wave this weekend

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

July 28, 2018, 2:03:43 AM EDT

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After enduring deadly flooding and then heat, residents of Japan are bracing for a new danger with Typhoon Jongdari.

While currently still south of mainland Japan, Jongdari is expected to track northwestward before turning due west and paralleling Japan's coastline.

Seas will build along the entire eastern and southern coast of Japan through the weekend, creating hazardous conditions for shipping interests and swimmers.

Jongdari strengthened into a typhoon on Thursday evening, local time, eventually reaching a strength equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane in the Atlantic or East Pacific oceans. Jongdari is currently the equivalent strength of a Category 1 hurricane.

The expected track of Jongdari has shifted southward, which could keep the storm away from the disruptive mountains of central Honshu. As a result, Jongdari might be over water long enough to keep it as a typhoon into the end of the weekend.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty anticipates the typhoon to weaken slightly prior to moving closer to Japan late in the weekend.

Damaging winds will occur near and just north of Jongdari, leading to power outages and some damage to homes and businesses as well as downed and damaged trees for many along the south coast of Honshu and into Shikoku.

"Wind gusts may be the greatest threat along the coast of central Honshu," Douty said. "Depending on the final intensity of the storm, gusts to near 160 km/h (100 mph) are possible."

Winds driving the ocean water onshore will lead to life-threatening storm-surge flooding along the coast the southern coasts of central Honshu, especially after the center of Jongdari passes the region. Coastal flooding can also threaten some communities farther up the coast of northeastern Honshu.

Heavy rainfall is expected to arrive well ahead of the core of the cyclone, causing a 12- to 24-hour period of heavy rainfall in parts of central and southern Honshu. Rainfall totals in excess of 300 mm (12 inches) are expected in the hardest hit locations, which should remain south of Tokyo and east of Osaka.

Even if the hardest hit areas end up between these major cities, some travel disruptions are likely this weekend and into early next week .

Mudslides will be another serious concern across the rugged terrain of central and southern Honshu.

The now more-southerly track of Jongdari could bring some of the heaviest rainfall and damaging winds to the same areas hardest hit by flooding that killed at least 225 people earlier this month in parts of southern Honshu, Shikoku and Kyushu.

"Because these areas were hit with so much rain earlier in July, the already saturated ground might make toppling trees more widespread in lesser winds," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Richards.

The combination of Jongdari rapidly weakening and tracking across central Japan will limit the risk for any damaging winds across these areas and the remainder of southern Japan.

While the tropical cyclone will bring the risk for flooding, mudslides and damaging winds, it will finally bring an end to a multi-week heat wave that has claimed that lives of at least 80 people, according to Aljazeera.

Jongdari will weaken into a tropical rainstorm by Monday as it tracks into the Sea of Japan toward South Korea.

Some rain may still reach southern South Korea early next week unless Jongdari dissipates prior to pressing that far to the west. If the latter happens, the heat wave gripping the entire nation will continue.

Regardless, rough seas will still be stirred in the Sea of Japan (also known as the East Sea) and create hazards for boaters and swimmers this weekend and into early next week.

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Saturday, July 28, 2018