Here's what Jeff Flake just did -- and what it means for Brett Kavanaugh

begin quote from:Analysis: Here's what Flake did and what it means

Here's what Jeff Flake just did -- and what it means for Brett Kavanaugh

Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large

Updated 2:58 AM ET, Sat September 29, 2018

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Source: CNN

Senator Flake requests an FBI investigation 02:30

(CNN)Just as Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee were on the verge of their 11-10 vote to favorably recommend the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake had a change of heart.

And that change of heart changed everything -- albeit temporarily.

Here's what happened -- because it's complicated:

1. Flake voted for Kavanaugh to move out of the committee. But he also made clear that he would not vote for Kavanaugh on the Senate floor without an FBI investigation of the sexual assault allegation against him -- an accusation that the nominee has vehemently denied.

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2. In a vacuum, that doesn't mean much. If Republicans only lost Flake, they would have 50 votes in favor of Kavanaugh's confirmation when the scheduled vote would happen on Tuesday. That would allow Vice President Mike Pence to break the tie, and Kavanaugh would be confirmed.

3. But Flake -- as well as Minnesota Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar -- suggested in the moments before the 11-10 vote that there were other Republicans who felt the same as Flake. As in, they would not support Kavanaugh's confirmation unless and until the FBI investigation happens. Those senators are, presumably, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.

4. None of what Flake did was binding -- until the White House and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell weighed in. McConnell formally requested the White House to instruct the FBI to do supplemental background check, which "would be limited to current credible allegations against the nominee and must be completed no later than one week from today."

The Senate Judiciary Committee announcement means that McConnell, as expected, has bowed to the fact that he does not currently have the votes. Presumably, Flake would not have a) made the one-week FBI investigation request and then b) voted for Kavanaugh to move favorably out of committee unless c) he knew that he had Murkowski and/or Collins (or some other Republican) was with him. (Murkowski confirmed to reporters after the session that she supports Flake's proposal.)

President Donald Trump bowed to the inevitable on Friday afternoon, ordering an FBI investigation.

So that's where we are.