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It looks like younger voters are going to be one of the key deciding factors in this years midterm elections. Veuer's Nick Cardona breaks down the latest polling data. Buzz60
WASHINGTON – Continuing a grand Washington tradition, Republicans at the White House, on Capitol Hill and within the national party have begun blaming one another for an election that hasn't happened yet.
Burdened by a controversial president who has inspired historic Democratic enthusiasm, Republicans expect to have difficulty holding onto their House majority. Behind the scenes, Republicans have formed a circular firing squad ahead of next Tuesday's election.
"Heading into a bad cycle, a politician’s most powerful instinct is to point to somebody else, and that applies to their operatives as well. On the otherhand, if they win, they’re all gonna be saying, 'We saw it coming all along,' " said Ari Fleischer, a former press secretary for President George W. Bush.
USA TODAY interviewed a dozen current and former GOP officials, strategists and advisers and found the blame game is well underway. They were given anonymity to be able to speak freely.
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Frustration centered on 41 open or vacant GOP House seats, a record. Of those, nearly two dozen have become vulnerable to Democratic takeover, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. With just 23 seats needed to flip control, stakes are high for those in the politics business.
Six operatives questioned how hard the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., worked to keep members from retiring or leaving office. Ryan himself announced he would retire in April.
“The biggest trend that you’re seeing in the retirements are in districts where they thought it would be hard to maintain their seat,” said Mark Harkins, senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University.
There wasn’t much the party could do to convince lawmakers to stick around, Harkins said. In the old days, he said, members could be given “earmarks” – funding provisions tucked into spending bills for local projects – to sweeten the decision to stay. Those giveaways were eliminated in 2011. And promises of a committee chairmanship – another plum incentive – hold less allure for Republicans, because unlike Democrats, the party limits the number of terms a chairman can serve.
Ryan’s team dismissed accusations he didn't do enough to help his party.
"Speaker Ryan and the NRCC worked tirelessly on recruitment this cycle and in competitive districts where GOP incumbents retired,” said Jeremy Adler, a spokesman for Ryan’s political operation.
He listed candidates such as Jay Webber in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, Maria Elvira-Salazar in Florida’s 27th, Young Kim in California’s 39th and Dino Rossi in Washington’s 8th as examples of strong candidates who are competitive in seats that came open.
The NRCC declined to comment on the allegation.
Jack Pitney, a politics professor at Claremont McKenna College and a former staffer for House GOP leadership and the Republican National Committee (RNC), said pointing the failure finger is nothing new, but President Donald Trump complicates things.
“Republicans are always fighting each other. When things look bad, they fight over blame. When things are good, they fight over credit. The one constant is they’re always fighting,” Pitney said.
"What is new is the breadth and depth of opposition to Trump," Pitney said. "Bush and Reagan had down periods, but they also had periods of high approval. Trump never has. He’s uniquely polarizing, and I think that’s an important dynamic in this election.” Pitney himself left the party after Trump's victory in 2016.
As a way to fire up his most loyal supporters, the president has focused on the immigration issue and speaks frequently about a migrant caravan headed north through Mexico toward the United States. He also introduced a plan to lower prescription drug prices but complained Friday that the coverage of bombs being sent through the mail to prominent Trump critics was interrupting Republican momentum.
On Saturday, 11 people were killed at Pittsburgh synagogue and others were wounded. On Sunday evening the president denied via Twitter that he and Republicans were causing "division and hatred." Instead, he blamed the media.
More help on the campaign trail?
Educated white women living in the suburbs have drifted away from the GOP under Trump’s presidency, putting previously red seats in play. Cook Political Report rates 72 GOP seats – and only five for Democrats – as at-risk.
"These open seats are especially susceptible to being swept whichever way the national winds are flowing because the candidates tend not to be well-defined," said Dave Wasserman, editor of the Cook Political Report.
As the campaign ends, the wind is at the back of Democrats. Their cash advantage has allowed them to define their Republican opponents in many of these races. The NRCC has been outraised by its Democratic counterpart by more than $76 million as of the last FEC filing, for the period ending Oct. 17.
Another strategy complaint surfaced about how Trump has been used to help the party keep its majority. One Republican familiar with White House thinking said the president’s team believes he could help even more than he has on the trail in competitive districts. That Republican said the White House views a special GOP win in Ohio's 12th district as proof that Trump could make the difference. The Republican candidate won days after the president campaigned for him.
The White House is also optimistic about a race in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, the GOP source said. Trump has gone all in on that contest and polling shows voters have turned in the Republican candidate’s favor.
The White House declined to comment.
But White House political director Bill Stepien crafted a memo this month warning lawmakers they could face difficulty with midterm voters if they did not “clearly and boldly align” with the president’s policies, said an official with knowledge of the memo, which was first reported by The New York Times.
Nearly all the operatives said while some of Trump's actions and words have been unhelpful to their electoral prospects, overall they were happy with the performance of the White House's political shop. The sources said the group had a strong understanding of the electoral landscape.
But then there's the issue of money. Four sources said the most vulnerable GOP candidates have been hit with all the drag of Trump's baggage with little of the benefit from the cash he raises.
Allies of the House Republicans' political operation said they are frustrated that the RNC, the national party,hasn't transferred to the NRCC more of the millions it has raised. The RNC has taken in nearly $284 million as of the last filing.
But Matt Gorman, a spokesman for the NRCC, which acts as House Republicans' campaign arm, pushed back on that point. Gorman said the committee was happy to have gotten nearly $9 million from the national party and were proud of their own record-breaking fundraising (more than $174 million as of last filing).
“The RNC is a great partner, and we’ve had a strong relationship every step of the way. Anyone speculating to the contrary doesn’t know what they’re talking about,” he said.
The RNC sent over the cash “because we believe in their efforts and their commitment to keep the House,” said Ryan Mahoney, RNC spokesman.
The party also has invested $275 million on get-out-the-vote efforts in 28 states, Mahoney said. Much of that infrastructure will carry over and be critical to GOP presidential outreach in 2020, he added.
While party committees have limits on how much money they can raise from single contributors, super PACs can accept unlimited contributions. For example, the Ryan-aligned super PAC, Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), has gotten $50 million from casino mogul Sheldon Adelson and his physician wife, Miriam, this election cycle.
How CLF has spent its money has caused some friction.
Duplicating efforts on the campaign trail
As part of its 2018 strategy, the super PAC launched its own field program, including 40 offices in competitive districts across the country. In 16 states, both the RNC and CLF have mobilized, and that has led to complaints about duplicated efforts.
Five Republicans said the CLF had wandered outside of the bounds of a traditional super PAC with their field program. Because outside groups aren’t able to coordinate with the party or candidates, the sources said, in some districts the efforts – such as knocking on doors and distributing flyers – overlapped, leaving operatives wishing the money had been spent on more TV ads instead.
“We’re proud that CLF’s record-breaking fundraising has allowed us to do things differently in a tough environment, including launching our unprecedented field program while tripling our advertising budget over last cycle,” CLF spokeswoman Courtney Alexander told USA TODAY. The organization planned to spend $150 million over the cycle, with the field program contributing roughly 5 percent. The most recent FEC filing showed the super PAC raising more than $143 million.
And then there's the personal motive for avoiding blame. Much of the finger-pointing comes from those trying to land in a good spot for the next election cycle. Party organizations and super PACs need to show victories to convince donors to keep giving. Operatives looking for their next campaign gig need to show their strategy led to wins, not losses.
"Self-preservation is always part of the mix," Pitney said. "People want to maintain their viability in the future, and that's what has always driven people in politics to deflect blame and claim credit."
Veteran politico Fleischer offered them a simple message: “Welcome to Washington. It will never change,"
Contributing: William Theobald, John Fritze and Nicole Gaudiano, USA TODAY
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