Thursday, August 29, 2019

Category 4, with winds of 130 mph, the damage could be catastrophic: "Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls,"

continued: "Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed."

A hit from a Category 4 hurricane means that "power outages will last for weeks to possibly months, and long-term water shortages will increase human suffering. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months."

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end quote: This could be very serious if you are hit with 130 mile per hour winds because you would need maybe a fallout shelter or some place like a basement to survive this sort of 130 mil per hour wind that is constant with gusts above that wherever it hits. It makes me realize why they said that this storm likely could be worse than anything they have been hit with for decades. I have been in over 100 mph gusts and I couldn't stay standing up and it kept blowing me down while climbing a mountain in California in Winter when I was 21. Then ice was blowing and started to tear the flesh from my face so I took plastic I had for sliding down from the peak and covered  over my face. Then the sound was deafening of the ice hitting the plastic at over 100 mph AND I also kept falling down and injuring myself on rocks along my path because of the uneven gusts of wind over 100 mph. I finally gave up and slid down from 11,000 feet altitude in the snow down to about 9000 feet or 10,000 feet where it wasn't doing that and then I had totally different problems trying to stay alive.

So, unless people find and go to a shelter or have one that is made of cement underground then likely they are possibly going to die if this thing hits at a Category 4 when it comes onto the land. But, after the winds hit there might also be storm surge which tends to kill many more people than high winds historically. Because people can see that high winds are going to kill them. This is pretty obvious. But, when storm surge comes at night there is no warning and then you just drown.

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Slide 1 of 45: This GOES-16 satellite image taken Thursday, Aug. 29, 2019, at 14:20 UTC and provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), shows Hurricane Dorian, right, moving over open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Dorian was expected to grow into a potentially devastating Category 3 hurricane before hitting the U.S. mainland late Sunday or early Monday somewhere between the Florida Keys and southern Georgia.
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1/45 SLIDES © NOAA via AP Photo
Dorian strengthened from a tropical storm to a hurricane as it headed from Puerto Rico to the United States mainland.
(Pictured) This GOES-16 satellite image taken on Aug. 29, and provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), shows Hurricane Dorian, right, moving over open waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
Slideshow by photo services
After walloping the Caribbean as a tropical storm, Hurricane Dorian is forecast to hit somewhere along the east coast of Florida this weekend.
And forecasters warn that Dorian could be a treacherous storm.
Along much of Florida’s east coast, as the storm approached, shoppers rushed to stock up on food and emergency supplies at supermarkets and hardware stores and picked the shelves clean of bottled water. Lines formed at service stations as motorists topped off their tanks and filled gasoline cans.
Keep up with Hurricane Dorian: Get USA TODAY's Daily Briefing in your inbox
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 26 counties in Dorian's possible path and said he spoke with President Donald Trump on Wednesday evening about storm preparations.
Here are five things that make Dorian a dangerous hurricane:

It's forecast to strengthen to a Category 4 hurricane 

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center said Dorian is expected to reach Category 4 strength as it approaches Florida over the weekend: "With lower shear and very warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur ... Dorian is likely to reach major hurricane strength in the next day or two and is forecast to maintain that status until it reaches land."
If it hits as a Category 4, with winds of 130 mph, the damage could be catastrophic: "Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls," the hurricane center said. "Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed."
A hit from a Category 4 hurricane means that "power outages will last for weeks to possibly months, and long-term water shortages will increase human suffering. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months."
water next to the ocean: This satellite image obtained from NOAA/RAMMB, shows Hurricane Dorian (R) as it passes Puerto Rico at 11:30 central time on August 29, 2019. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami said the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning for the island had been lifted, and that "Dorian continues to move away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands."© Jose Romero, AFP/Getty Images This satellite image obtained from NOAA/RAMMB, shows Hurricane Dorian (R) as it passes Puerto Rico at 11:30 central time on August 29, 2019. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami said the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning for the island had been lifted, and that "Dorian continues to move away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands."

It could hit anywhere along the east coast of Florida – or even Georgia or the Carolinas

Although the current forecast shows landfall along the east coast of Florida, there is a chance the storm could curve up the coast before hitting land, perhaps even tracking into Georgia or the Carolinas.
The hurricane center said that the track guidance becomes less clear beyond 72 hours, primarily because of model differences in the strength of a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic that will determine Dorian's path.
"The spread of the ... models and the various guidance is still considerable at days 4 and 5, and it is too soon to specify where along the Florida east coast the greatest impacts could occur," the hurricane center said.
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Adam Douty said that "a very small fluctuation in the overall weather pattern will have a large influence in where Dorian ultimately tracks and how it impacts the continental U.S."

There's a risk of life-threatening storm surge

Storm surge – the surge of sea water that comes ashore as a hurricane makes landfall – is often the deadliest and most destructive part of a storm. In fact, only 8% of hurricane-related deaths are caused by strong winds. Almost half are because of storm surge, the Weather Channel said.
The hurricane center warns that "there is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials."

It could make a second landfall

Though it's forecast to hit somewhere along the east coast of Florida, there "is certainly a chance that the storm could drift into the Gulf of Mexico and produce a second landfall," noted University of Georgia meteorologist Marshall Shepherd in Forbes.
"For now, the entire Florida and Southeast coastal community should be on alert. Even if you live in the eastern Gulf Coast states, I wouldn't completely take my eyes off of the storm yet," Shepherd said.

South Florida is already sodden from an extremely wet August

It's been a soggy month and summer in south Florida, so any rain that falls from Dorian will hasten and exacerbate flooding. How wet? Both Miami and West Palm Beach have seen over a foot of rainfall this month, which is about twice as much as average, the National Weather Service said. 
And regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next week. The hurricane center warns that as much as a foot of rain could fall from Dorian across the southeastern U.S. 
"Dorian's slower movement as it nears the coast could cause major flooding," the Weather Channel said.
Contributing: The Associated Press
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane Dorian: Why dangerous storm forecast to become Category 4
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