What we're covering
• Millions of Germans are voting in snap elections. The center-right CDU is predicted to win the biggest share of votes, putting its leader Friedrich Merz in pole position to be next chancellor. The stuttering economy and immigration are major voter concerns.
• The election comes against a backdrop of the Trump administration transforming historic security ties with Europe and moving ahead with peace talks on Ukraine. CNN’s international diplomatic editor says the outcome of the election is pivotal to the continent and to Kyiv.
• The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is tipped to double its vote share and surge into second place. But it is likely to be frozen out of power as other parties are refusing to work with it.
• Whoever wins, coalition talks are a near-certainty. Single parties rarely win majorities in German elections so Merz will have to open talks with other parties on forming a government.
Polls close in 15 minutes: Here's what to watch for next
Polls in the snap election are closing at 6 p.m. local time, with first exit polls expected immediately after voting stops.
Here is what to watch for when those first numbers come in:
How is AfD doing?
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expecting to see its best result yet. Opinion polls ahead of the vote have consistently showed AfD second with around 20% of the vote, the strongest polling for a far-right party since the end of World War II.
But unless the opinion polls turn out to be significantly off, the AfD is likely to remain in opposition because of the unwritten rule of German politics that blocks far-right parties from taking part in the government.
How bad is SPD’s decline?
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is widely expected to lose ground in this election – the key question is by how much.
Having become the largest party in the 2021 election, opinion polls indicate it looks set for a downward swing in votes by around 10 points. That would put it not only behind the AfD, but fighting it out with the Greens for third.
Which coalition is most likely?
Unlike other governments, such as in the US, coalitions are a natural part of German politics.
An electoral system known as proportional representation, established after World War II, makes it almost impossible for a single party to win power. The exit polls could give a good indication of the shape of the next German government.
Germany’s socialist party enjoys late surge in polls
Germany’s socialist Die Linke, or Left Party, has enjoyed a late surge in the polls ahead of Sunday’s elections, following a fiery speech against fascism by its leader.
The Left Party – whose roots can in part be traced back to the communist East Germany’s ruling party - looks set to comfortably reach the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament, latest polls show.
It follows powerful speeches delivered by its rising star leader, Heidi Reichinnek, in January, which quickly gained widespread attention online.
“I say to everyone out there: don’t give up, fight back, resist fascism,” the 36-year-old told parliament as she called for action against the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and those who work with it.
“To the barricades!” she declared passionately, showing a tattoo of Rosa Luxemburg, the symbol of the revolutionary left, on her left forearm. The speech, which has now been viewed more than 6.5 million times on TikTok, electrified supporters.
Her speech was delivered after Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), broke a longstanding taboo by relying on AfD votes to pass a motion aimed at cracking down on migration. The move, which shattered the mainstream parties’ anti-AfD “firewall,” sparked large protests across Germany that month.
Since that pivotal moment, Die Linke has seen a rise in support. Just weeks ago, the party’s poll numbers were below the 5% threshold, but a recent YouGov poll put the party on 9%.
The "conservative leftist" hoping to make it into parliament
While much attention has been on the far right in Germany’s election, a rival radical part could also make headlines too.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) was formed in 2024 by Sahra Wagenknecht, a former Left Party lawmaker and a veteran of Germany’s hard left.
Wagenknecht has described herself as a “conservative leftist” - in naming her party after herself, an unusual move in German politics, she’s hoping to capitalize on her personal prominence.
It attracts former supporters of the Left Party as well as, surprisingly, those of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), and is largely popular in Germany’s eastern states.
It takes a left-wing stance on economic issues, and advocates for job security and higher wages.
However, when it comes to immigration, the BSW is closer to the AfD in its policies. In fact, there is considerable overlap between the two parties’ policy agendas, and they share an interest in weakening Germany’s political mainstream. Still, the BSW has said it will not work together with the AfD.
The BSW has also called for an end to sending arms to Ukraine, and has a Russia-friendly stance.
The party will be hoping to pick up at least 5% of the vote on Sunday - thereby enabling it to enter Germany’s parliament.
"The people want something else," AfD deputy parliamentary leader tells CNN
The Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) deputy parliamentary leader has told CNN that the German population are ready for change, and that consequently support for the far-right party will continue to rise.
“The German are voting for a change, they want to have a change in politics, this is what the CDU is promising and this what the CDU will not deliver,” Beatrix von Storch told CNN at the AfD’s election evening party in Berlin.
“You know when a opposition party like our party, doubles their numbers from one election to the next, it shows that something is dramatically going wrong and people want something else,” she continued.
“This is why they support AfD even though we have got a tremendous fire against us.”
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