| New York Times | - |
BEIRUT,
Lebanon - After two days of attacks directed exclusively against
insurgents opposed to the Syrian government, there is little question
that Russia is determined to re-establish President Bashar al-Assad as
Syria's leader.
BEIRUT,
Lebanon — After two days of attacks directed exclusively against
insurgents opposed to the Syrian government, there is little question
that Russia is determined to re-establish President Bashar al-Assad as Syria’s leader.
“Russia’s
goal is to defend Assad; whoever is against him is a destabilizing
factor,” said Aleksei Makarkin, the deputy head of the Center for
Political Technologies, in Moscow. “Russia wants Assad to get engaged in
a political settlement from a position of strength.”
Yet
to restore Mr. Assad to full control of Syria or, for that matter, to
stitch Syria back together without putting troops on the ground,
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia will have to accomplish what no other outside power has dared attempt.
Mr.
Putin can achieve a number of short-term goals. By inserting Russian
military forces directly into the Syrian battlefield he can seize the
initiative from Mr. Assad’s opponents and severely limit the options of
the United States and its allies, not to speak of embarrassing President Obama — always a consideration for Mr. Putin.
But
the glow of early Russian successes will almost certainly fade,
analysts and opposition commanders say, as the realities of Syria’s
grim, four-year civil war slowly assert themselves. Mr. Assad’s forces
are worn down and demoralized, and they are in control of only about 20
percent of Syria’s territory. Mr. Assad himself is vilified by many in
the majority Sunni population as his forces use barrel bombs and other
indiscriminate weapons against an insurgency that began with political
protests.
This past summer the Syrian Army lost ground to the Islamic State, also known as ISIS
and ISIL, in the east and to a rival insurgent coalition, the Army of
Conquest, in the northwest. Mr. Assad even went on television to declare
that the army was facing a manpower shortage. People from
government-held areas and draft-age men were increasingly joining the
accelerating flow of refugees heading for Europe and elsewhere.
In
a country that is 80 percent Sunni, he was also relying increasingly on
Shiite fighters from Iran and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia group,
injecting a sectarian edge into an already vicious conflict.
At
the same time, as the Islamic State moved toward Homs and Damascus from
the east, rival insurgents were putting new pressure on the Syrian
coastal provinces, where Mr. Assad’s support is strongest. The fighters
advancing on that front were not from the Islamic State but from the
Army of Conquest, a group that includes an affiliate of Al Qaeda known
as the Nusra Front and other Islamist groups, including several more
secular groups that have been covertly armed and trained by the United
States.
By
striking at the territory of that group and others opposed to both Mr.
Assad and the Islamic State, Russia takes pressure off Mr. Assad and
Hezbollah and shifts the ebb and flow in the war’s stalemate back in
their favor.
Lebanese
news media even reported Thursday that Hezbollah could soon be
participating in a major ground attack in northern Syria, suggesting
there were plans for an assault to roll back some insurgent gains. There
were also unconfirmed reports that new Iranian troops were entering
Syria.
But
history suggests that it will be hard for Russia to bring about a
purely military resolution. The United States, with tens of thousands of
troops and virtually unlimited firepower, could not subdue insurgents
in Iraq or Afghanistan. And with airstrikes alone, the American-led
coalition against the Islamic State has made little headway.
Russia
remembers its own disastrous battle with Islamist insurgents —
American-backed groups that over time spawned Al Qaeda — in the 1980s in
Afghanistan.
And
fears that the strikes would further radicalize people seemed to be
coming true on Thursday as one previously independent Islamist brigade
declared its allegiance to the Nusra Front, saying unity was necessary
with America and Russia allied against Muslims “to blur the light of
truth.”
For
now, though, Mr. Putin does not seem to be in a rush, particularly
since state control of the news media allows him to mold public opinion,
much as he did by backing rebel separatists in eastern Ukraine. His
supporters say he is not looking for easy victories.
“He
is playing a long game in strengthening the Russian position and
showing that Russia is an independent, powerful player,” said Sergei
Karaganov, an occasional Kremlin adviser on foreign policy as the
honorary chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.
The
Russian president may not even be looking for victory. “He wants to be
engaged in a serious conversation that Russia is playing a role there
that is good,” said Konstantin von Eggert, a political commentator on
Kommersant FM radio. Until then, Mr. von Eggert said, “ attacks on the
Islamic State can wait.”
With
his forces on the ground, Mr. von Eggert said, Mr. Putin can now bide
his time and wait for the United States to come around to joining him —
if not under the Obama administration then the next one.
“You
cannot disregard him, because he has a military presence there,” Mr.
von Eggert said. “It is the reality you cannot ignore. It is real guys
with real weaponry on the ground in Syria that the Americans do not
have.”
It
is not so much Mr. Assad himself that Mr. Putin wants to defend, he
added, as the principle that leaders at home should be allowed to do
what they want.
“By
being in Latakia and Tartus they are defending Moscow,” Mr. von Eggert
said. “They are defending the principle that any government can do what
it wants with its own people.”
Graphic
Mapping the Battle for Syria:
Russia Continues Airstrikes on Rebel Areas
Maps show that most of the areas hit by the airstrikes
are controlled by rebel groups and that they are not in Islamic State
territory.
Defending
Mr. Assad is also meant to show the world that Russia and America treat
their friends differently. The United States might abandon leaders like
President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, but Russia is a better ally. That
makes all Assad opponents fair game.
Others
doubt whether Mr. Putin’s lunge into Syria was all that well thought
out. A senior Western diplomat who has been deeply involved in the Syria
debate said Thursday that there was no evidence that Mr. Putin had a
grand strategy in mind in beginning the bombing. Instead, the official
said, his calculations seemed mostly tactical.
Other
officials questioned whether the Russian leader had what they called an
“exit strategy” if he found that he was getting sucked further and
further into Syria’s civil war.
Several
American officials, trying to put the best face on Mr. Putin’s direct
challenge, have said in recent days they believe that the Russian leader
will soon have to take responsibility for Mr. Assad’s attacks on his
own people. “Putin owns this now, even if he doesn’t know that yet,” one
administration official said. “If he’s there to save Assad, then he’s
responsible for controlling him.”
Many
analysts say that Mr. Putin’s best hope is to push all the parties to
work more urgently toward a political resolution — albeit one that is
more favorable to Russia and Mr. Assad.
But
that may take some doing, at least as far as the Obama administration
is concerned. The White House press secretary, Josh Earnest, suggested
that Mr. Putin’s real motive is to protect Russia’s military base at
Tartus, Russia’s last military outpost outside of the former Soviet
Union.
“The
fact is, Russia is responding to a situation inside the Middle East
from a position of weakness. Their influence in that region of the world
is waning,” Mr. Earnest said, adding that Russia is “trying to salvage
what’s left of a deteriorating situation inside of Syria.”
Then
again, as with the deal Mr. Putin engineered to rid Syria of its
chemical weapons, he might manage to put together a peace deal that Mr.
Obama finds he cannot refuse.
Mr.
Putin’s task is made somewhat easier by the fact that he enjoys high
ratings at home and does not have to worry much about public opinion
when it comes to a distant war.
“Putin
does not care about public opinion at home because any story can be
sold internally via the television,” said Orkhan Dzhemal, a prominent
journalist who specializes in the Middle East. “In addition, most
Russians don’t care whom we are fighting against in Syria, ISIS or not
ISIS.”
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