US assessment on Russia in Syria: A 'strategic blunder'
U.S. assessment on Russia in Syria: A 'strategic blunder'
Washington (CNN)There
is no ambiguity now about Russia's current tactics in Syria -- they are
seeking to take over the airspace in the region and be the
agenda-setting force on the ground, several senior administration
officials told CNN.
"Yesterday's
demarche to the U.S. by Russian officials in Baghdad was clear in its
intent," one senior administration official said. "Make sure you don't
have anyone around ISIS targets and get out of the air."
And
while U.S. officials have no plans to cede Russia any ground, they also
said it appears that Russian President Vladimir Putin made a dramatic
chess move that the Russians have not thought through -- one official
even called it a "strategic blunder."
Had
the Russians been clear that they are providing support in Syria to
prevent Syrian President Bashar al-Assad regime's collapse -- a scenario
that would benefit ISIS -- they might have gotten some credit on the
world stage.
But their very first
strikes in the region hit CIA-backed anti-Assad rebel forces, Arizona
Republican John McCain, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee,
said Thursday on CNN's "New Day."
And
U.S. officials note that every bomb against a non-ISIS Sunni target
puts them more in bed with Iran and Hezbollah, which are Shiite. U.S.
allies in the Persian Gulf warn that this could set off a huge sectarian
conflict and that the deeper the Russians get into this, the harder
officials believe it will be to get a diplomatic process with the Saudis
and others restarted.
"It is going to
be hugely tempting for the Saudis to start financing their guys again,"
another senior administration official said. "Syria will be a magnet
for every jihadi, who will rush to fight the Russians, just like they
did in Afghanistan. The problem is while this will cause problems for
the Russians, it will also mean trouble for the Gulf, when the jihadists
come home."
"The Russians can't be
stupid," another senior administration official said. "This is going to
be wildly expensive. And they can't hold out long. They know in the end
there is no future for the guy (Assad) because the whole reason they had
to come in is because Assad and his forces were extremely vulnerable.
So we are hoping they will come to their senses, stabilize the situation
and then we can agree on the Assad piece."
The U.S. wants to see Assad transition out of power in order to end the civil war.
7 photos: Tense moments between Obama and Putin
U.S.
Defense Secretary Ash Carter is working on "deconflicting" with Russia
to avoid military mishaps in the coming days, but those talks probably
won't happen Thursday. Secretary of State John Kerry will continue to
meet with his counterpart, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
U.S.
officials expect Carter and Kerry to make it clear to Russia the U.S.
has the legal authorities necessary to continue its anti-ISIS campaign.
Kerry
is also meeting with world leaders interested in ousting Assad, but
nobody is putting much stock in that group because the Russians must be
in place first, according to a U.S. official.
"Everyone is feeling their way on this," a second senior administration official said.
Officials
said there is a recognition that Assad isn't going anywhere soon. But
they are also mindful that as they seek to deconflict with the Russians,
they must be careful not to be seen as supporting the Syrian dictator.
However,
there is a corner of the U.S. government -- analysts, members of
Congress -- saying that Assad should stay for now, including Democratic
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who said as much Wednesday on CNN's "The Situation
Room."
The growing refugee crisis in
Europe is another wild card that is helping Assad's case, because some
European countries are saying it may be better to work with him than
continue to see the situation escalate and the refugee flow increase.
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