Greece heading out of euro, say UK voters
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Greece heading out of euro, say UK voters
ICM poll reveals 72% believe Greece will leave single currency while David Cameron's personal rating hits all-time low
See all the Guardian/ICM polls since 1984
See all the Guardian/ICM polls since 1984
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Voters are convinced the euro
is heading for the rocks, but divided on whom they will blame if the
double-dip recession deepens, according to a new Guardian/ICM poll.
By a crushing margin of 72% to 20% the British public believes that Greece is on its way out of the single currency club, and a majority of 52% judges that the eurozone's disintegration will go further, with other countries also being forced to leave. Some 26% believe we are set for a total unravelling, with a return to old national currencies like the French franc and the Deutsche mark in the heartland of the EU.
The poll also records the lowest-ever approval ratings for David Cameron and his coalition. The prime minister's personal approval ratings are now virtually neck and neck with Ed Miliband's.
But with opinion divided about the cause of hard times there are mixed results for his Conservative party. Tory support took a disastrous dive in the immediate aftermath of the budget, but has now recovered a little, climbing three points from 33% in April to stand at 36%. Labour is five points ahead on 41%, holding on to last month's score which was its strongest since 2003 in the monthly Guardian/ICM series.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have slid back four to stand at 11%, and the combined total of other parties is up one, to 13%.
Labour's five-point lead is their second biggest with Guardian/ICM since the general election, beaten only by the eight-point advantage they opened up last month. But the Conservatives' continuing edge in the economic blame game has enabled a limited political recovery. Asked to choose between four possible culprits for the new recession, 29% of voters continue to blame debts racked up by the last Labour government, as compared to just 17% who point the finger at the coalition's cuts. Meanwhile, 24% identify chill winds from the eurozone as the principal problem, and 21% cite the banks' reluctance to lend.
Since the same question was asked last autumn, blame has shifted somewhat towards Europe and somewhat away from the coalition. After Labour's strong showing in the local elections, and a full two years after Gordon Brown left Downing Street, the party will be dismayed that so many voters continue to hold it responsible for Britain's economic woes.
Mistrust of Labour also emerges when people are asked to put their overall political preference to one side, and consider which team they most trust to run the economy properly. Some 44% prefer Cameron and chancellor George Osborne, as against 35% who would rather Ed Miliband and his shadow chancellor Ed Balls were in charge of the finances.
While substantial, this nine-point Tory lead on the economy has been diminishing steadily: the gap was 21 points in December, 18 in January, 17 in March and 13 in April before closing by four more points over the last month.
The prime minister used to be deemed an electoral asset, and he continues to outperform the administration as a whole to an extent. But over the last few months he has veered from positive to deeply negative territory. As recently as last December he had a positive rating of +5, but this has now turned into a net negative of –11. Crucially, that leaves him in a statistical dead heat with Miliband, whose strongly negative rating of –17 in December has now eased to –12. If the economic blame game is still preventing an outright Tory collapse, the question of leadership is no longer doing so.
The chancellor has slid further and faster than the government as a whole: Osborne's +17 net rating in June 2010 had fallen to –2 by December, and has now dived right down to –25 points. The same is true of Nick Clegg, whose already poor ratings are sinking to new depths. The deputy prime minister's net +19 rating in August 2010 had already flipped into a negative –19 by December of last year, and has now sunk further to –27.
Incumbent administrations are increasingly unpopular across the EU, and Britain is not immune. The Tories' rapidly shrinking advantage on the economy is only one sign of disillusionment. Only 31% of respondents think the coalition is doing a good job overall, as against 52% who say the reverse. The difference between these two figures gives the government its negative net approval rating of –21 points. That is down from –8 in December last year, and from a positive approval of a net +23 during the coalition's first flush in power in June 2010.
The news for the Liberal Democrats is unremittingly bleak. Up until now ICM's methodology has suggested a less precipitous collapse in Lib Dem support than has been seen in other surveys since the coalition was formed. But the third party's standing has now shrivelled to its lowest level in 15 years, since the time when Tony Blair's all-conquering new government briefly attracted support of 60%. The last time the Lib Dems did so badly in a more ordinary political environment was over 20 years ago, during the party's miserable early days at the very start of the 1990s.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1002 adults aged 18+ on 18-20 May 2012. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules end quote.
I didn't know when and still don't but I too would give odds of about 75 to 85% that Greece eventually leaves the European Union and the Euro. Though middle to upper class Greeks might want to stay in the European Union for a variety of reasons no one lower middle class to poor can stand to see the "Worse than the Great Depression effect" on common people in Greece anymore of the austerities. The other reason that the austerities cannot work is human nature. Unless everyone in the European Union was going through the same types of austerities it only becomes the victimization of one country and one group of people. This goes against human nature and can only fail in the long run. Until, there is equality throughout the European Union these kinds of austerities cannot succeed. As it is it will only be perceived by the poorer peoples in Greece as discrimination and a type of bigotry against a minority.
By a crushing margin of 72% to 20% the British public believes that Greece is on its way out of the single currency club, and a majority of 52% judges that the eurozone's disintegration will go further, with other countries also being forced to leave. Some 26% believe we are set for a total unravelling, with a return to old national currencies like the French franc and the Deutsche mark in the heartland of the EU.
The poll also records the lowest-ever approval ratings for David Cameron and his coalition. The prime minister's personal approval ratings are now virtually neck and neck with Ed Miliband's.
But with opinion divided about the cause of hard times there are mixed results for his Conservative party. Tory support took a disastrous dive in the immediate aftermath of the budget, but has now recovered a little, climbing three points from 33% in April to stand at 36%. Labour is five points ahead on 41%, holding on to last month's score which was its strongest since 2003 in the monthly Guardian/ICM series.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have slid back four to stand at 11%, and the combined total of other parties is up one, to 13%.
Labour's five-point lead is their second biggest with Guardian/ICM since the general election, beaten only by the eight-point advantage they opened up last month. But the Conservatives' continuing edge in the economic blame game has enabled a limited political recovery. Asked to choose between four possible culprits for the new recession, 29% of voters continue to blame debts racked up by the last Labour government, as compared to just 17% who point the finger at the coalition's cuts. Meanwhile, 24% identify chill winds from the eurozone as the principal problem, and 21% cite the banks' reluctance to lend.
Since the same question was asked last autumn, blame has shifted somewhat towards Europe and somewhat away from the coalition. After Labour's strong showing in the local elections, and a full two years after Gordon Brown left Downing Street, the party will be dismayed that so many voters continue to hold it responsible for Britain's economic woes.
Mistrust of Labour also emerges when people are asked to put their overall political preference to one side, and consider which team they most trust to run the economy properly. Some 44% prefer Cameron and chancellor George Osborne, as against 35% who would rather Ed Miliband and his shadow chancellor Ed Balls were in charge of the finances.
While substantial, this nine-point Tory lead on the economy has been diminishing steadily: the gap was 21 points in December, 18 in January, 17 in March and 13 in April before closing by four more points over the last month.
The prime minister used to be deemed an electoral asset, and he continues to outperform the administration as a whole to an extent. But over the last few months he has veered from positive to deeply negative territory. As recently as last December he had a positive rating of +5, but this has now turned into a net negative of –11. Crucially, that leaves him in a statistical dead heat with Miliband, whose strongly negative rating of –17 in December has now eased to –12. If the economic blame game is still preventing an outright Tory collapse, the question of leadership is no longer doing so.
The chancellor has slid further and faster than the government as a whole: Osborne's +17 net rating in June 2010 had fallen to –2 by December, and has now dived right down to –25 points. The same is true of Nick Clegg, whose already poor ratings are sinking to new depths. The deputy prime minister's net +19 rating in August 2010 had already flipped into a negative –19 by December of last year, and has now sunk further to –27.
Incumbent administrations are increasingly unpopular across the EU, and Britain is not immune. The Tories' rapidly shrinking advantage on the economy is only one sign of disillusionment. Only 31% of respondents think the coalition is doing a good job overall, as against 52% who say the reverse. The difference between these two figures gives the government its negative net approval rating of –21 points. That is down from –8 in December last year, and from a positive approval of a net +23 during the coalition's first flush in power in June 2010.
The news for the Liberal Democrats is unremittingly bleak. Up until now ICM's methodology has suggested a less precipitous collapse in Lib Dem support than has been seen in other surveys since the coalition was formed. But the third party's standing has now shrivelled to its lowest level in 15 years, since the time when Tony Blair's all-conquering new government briefly attracted support of 60%. The last time the Lib Dems did so badly in a more ordinary political environment was over 20 years ago, during the party's miserable early days at the very start of the 1990s.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1002 adults aged 18+ on 18-20 May 2012. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules end quote.
I didn't know when and still don't but I too would give odds of about 75 to 85% that Greece eventually leaves the European Union and the Euro. Though middle to upper class Greeks might want to stay in the European Union for a variety of reasons no one lower middle class to poor can stand to see the "Worse than the Great Depression effect" on common people in Greece anymore of the austerities. The other reason that the austerities cannot work is human nature. Unless everyone in the European Union was going through the same types of austerities it only becomes the victimization of one country and one group of people. This goes against human nature and can only fail in the long run. Until, there is equality throughout the European Union these kinds of austerities cannot succeed. As it is it will only be perceived by the poorer peoples in Greece as discrimination and a type of bigotry against a minority.
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