8 things I know about the 2016 presidential race on the eve of the third GOP debate
A crew member checks the candidate podiums at the venue for the Oct. 28 CNBC Republican presidential debate, Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2015, inside the Coors Events Center at the University of Colorado in Boulder, Colo. (AP Photo/Brennan Linsley)
So, before the massive Republican presidential field takes the stage -- either at 6 p.m. (kiddie table debate) or 8 p.m. Eastern (adult table debate) -- tonight in Colorado, I thought I'd go through what I think I know about the race and how that's changed since the candidates were last on stage together Sept. 16 in California.
1. Donald Trump is no longer ascendant
You can -- and he will -- argue about where The Donald sits in the race right now. But it's quite clear that his upward poll trajectory has stopped. It's not a massive fade, but it is notable.
The problem for Trump -- as the last few days have shown -- is that he doesn't have much of a message outside of "I'm winning." His response to faltering numbers in Iowa on Tuesday night -- "Wht the hell are you people doing to me?" -- probably won't cut it on the debate stage. Trump still does remain a prime mover in the race, however, and will be center stage -- literally and figuratively -- in Boulder.
2. Jeb(!) is struggling
The former Florida governor's first two debate performances were blah -- not bad but not all that good either. Circumstances have changed -- and not in a good way -- for Jeb now, however, and there is an onus on him to show some fight and passion in Wednesday night's gathering. That likely means a far more aggressive approach to the debate, up to and including landing the first punch against the likes of Trump, Ben Carson and Marco Rubio. Bush has never shown much willingness or comfort with being the attack dog, but he needs a find a way tonight to look like he not only belongs on the stage but wants to be there.
3. Ben Carson is for real
The former pediatric neurosurgeon is the candidate least understood by the political class in Washington. He's also the most popular candidate among the people who, you know, cast votes and decide nominations. Carson has benefited from his performances in both of the first two debates and so will likely deliver more of the same tonight: polite and unassuming, but forceful in asserting his outsider cred. There will be something new for Carson in this debate though: His rise in the polls means he will likely get more attention from the other candidates on the stage. How will Carson react to the newfound negative attention? If at all?
4. Carly is the debate candidate and not much more
Fiorina has won each of the first two debates -- one at the kiddie table, one on the main stage. And in the immediate aftermath of both events, Fiorina's numbers spiked. Then, nothing -- or close to it. A mid-October Washington Post-ABC News national poll put Fiorina in sixth place with just 5 percent of the vote -- 27 points behind Trump.
Why hasn't Fiorina been able to capitalize more effectively on her strong debate showings? Lack of staff support or early-state organization are the most likely culprits. Regardless, don't over-inflate what a strong Fiorina performance Wednesday night might mean for her in the race more broadly.
5. Marco Rubio vs. the expectation monster
Rubio was a secondary (or even tertiary) player in the first two debates. But by dint of his improving poll numbers and the increased attacks on him from Bushworld, the Florida senator is likely to be more central to the conversation on Wednesday. Rubio did well with the time he had in the first debates, but how will he handle being a more major player this time around? And how much does he get into it with his one-time mentor Bush?
6. Ted Cruz lies in wait
I've written recently in this space about how well the Texas senator's campaign is running at the moment. Cruz is poised to have a moment in the race in the not-too-distant future but will likely be content to let Carson (and, to a lesser extent Trump) take the majority of the slings and arrows tonight. Cruz has been very effective in each of the first two debates, making the most of his moments. He's content to be a counter-puncher, waiting for his moments to land blows against his poll superiors -- and perhaps simply biding his time for Trump to flame out before vacuuming up his supporters.
7. Remember Mike Huckabee?
Has there ever been a disappearing act like this one? The former Arkansas governor has been nowhere in the national press since the last debate six weeks ago. He felt largely ancillary to the first two debates, and while his team insists everything is going according to plan, Huck needs a debate performance along the lines of what he regularly turned in during the 2008 race if he wants to avoid a disappointing return engagement to the presidential ring.
8. Rand as the wild card
At this point, does the Kentucky Senator really have anything to lose? His poll numbers are abysmal, and he's under increasing pressure from some Republican colleagues to abandon his presidential hopes to make sure he can hold his Senate seat next November. If we know anything about Paul, it's that he is feisty and won't go gently into that good night. This may be his last real chance to settle scores and score political points. My guess is he takes it.
Chris Cillizza writes “The Fix,” a politics blog for the Washington Post. He also covers the White House.
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Presidential
debates are inflection points. They give the political world a chance
to catch our breath (sort of) and figure out where we've been and where
the race is going.
