Forbes: "There's a 30% to 40% chance of recession in a one year view"

Models based on the yield curve today put the U.S. at around a 30% to 40% chance of hitting a recession on a one year view. Remember though, that based on this models the yield curve is telling us both that recession risk is higher than normal, but also that it's more likely than not that we won't hit a recession. To say it a different way, at any time there's around a 1 in 5 chance of a recession next year, currently the chance is perhaps 4 in 10, so even though the chances are higher than normal, it's still slightly more likely today, that we do not see a recession within a year based on what the yield curve is telling us.
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What Key Recession Indicators Are Telling Us Today

Forbes·2 days ago