Tuesday, October 30, 2018

We are now in a similar position as where the 2008 Great Recession happened

Of course the problems are somewhat different now. But, there are similarities too. Let's talk about the differences. First, Trump is the president so people are scared in the financial community by the Trade war now they know that China isn't likely to pay any attention to Trump until after he leaves office and then they might deal in some ways with the next president similar to how the Iranians wouldn't deal with Carter but dealt with Reagan. But in this case they likely won't deal with a Republican president at all and might take revenge against the Trump administration just for confronting them with a Trade War in the first place. So, just expect the most harmful possible tariffs against the U.S. in coming years until Trump is gone. They will definitely "Share the pain" that their country experienced from Trump's Trade war with us in revenge. They will definitely "Twist the knife" in our chests Chinese style for years to come from what Trump has done to them already.

As they say: "All's Fair in Love and War" and Sun Tzu wrote "The Art of War" which you might want to read in relation to what China is going to do next to the U.S. and the world after the Trade War intensifies from their side against us now.

What's the same? Banks are doing things that could bring down the whole economy just like in 2006 to 2012. So, these loans that Yellin is concerned about if the economy does a downturn that will cause companies to go bankrupt is similar to 2008 but instead of people walking out of underwater loans on houses by the thousands like then, you are going to possibly see major corporations that have just merged with loans going bankrupt in this kind of climate during a downturn.

So, the biggest problem in this downturn if it continues is major corporations going bankrupt who just got leveraged loans to do their mergers. This could create millions of job losses in a downturn which then might cause millions of underwater house loans being walked away from too.

But, then again big corporations also could do a Chapter 11 reorganization, lay off half or more of their employees, replace them with computers or robots or both and continue onwards too. Most of the workers in manufacturing Teslas for example, are robots not people. Robots do just about everything in manufacturing Teslas now. People mostly are hired only to maintain the robots that do everything at Tesla manufacturing cars now. My cousin owns a Tesla Model S and took his grandkids through Tesla in the California area because they have a tour for this.

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