Analysis: Russia's Vladimir Putin Poses Challenge to Donald Trump
Putin has sworn revenge against the United States all along for the demise of the Soviet Union. This is where you have to start regarding all this. So, is Putin Trump's Friend or is Putin a sworn U.S. enemy? Both cannot be true. So, at best Trump is being duped by his ego into disaster for the United States. This is the best way to put this.
However, it is also true that the Russian people are NOT the enemy of the United States. However, Putin (Ex-Head of the KGB) is. And to not realize this is to be a fool.
Analysis: Russia's Vladimir Putin Poses Challenge to Donald Trump Administration
byBill Neely
Part 3 in a Series
Donald Trump was elected to president on a
platform of politics not as usual, so it is fitting he inherits a world
in flux. Post-World War II rules are dying, old alliances shifting and
traditional roles shed. While Trump is a giant question mark on the
world stage, NBC News' Chief Global Correspondent Bill Neely looks at major international challenges the president-elect faces upon inauguration on Jan. 20.
LONDON — Nobody is more likely to test the new administration than Russia's Vladimir Putin.
Putin has already overlapped with three other
American presidents and his government's actions colored the U.S.
campaign long before Trump's November win.
U.S. intelligence officials believe with "a high
level of confidence" that Putin became personally involved in the
covert Russian campaign to interfere with the White House election, two
senior officials told NBC News.
FROM DEC. 15: Vladimir Putin personally involved in US election hack, intelligence officials say
2:36
The CIA has assessed that Putin's government wanted to elect Trump,
although the FBI and other agencies don't fully endorse that view. Few
officials dispute that the Russian operation was intended to harm the
candidacy of Trump's rival Hillary Clinton by leaking embarrassing
emails about Democrats.
While no equivalent Republican leaks occurred during the campaign — and Trump and Putin have both spoken of each other warmly — the wind from the East has never been more chilly.
On Oct. 15, Russia's longstanding U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said Washington-Kremlin tensions the "worst since 1973."
Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev — the
architect of glasnost or "openness" reform policies that hastened the
end the Communist U.S.S.R. — has warned that U.S.-Russia ties were at "a
dangerous point." Related: Putin Congratulates Trump by Telegram After Win
Russia tore up a pact to get rid of plutonium
that could be used in nuclear warheads, and moved nuclear weapons into
Eastern Europe — which unnerved Western governments, including the U.S.
It is also venturing into regions it had
neglected for decades, for example helping bomb Syria's Aleppo and
holding military exercises with longtime U.S. ally Egypt.
Profound Distrust
It seems like Putin's Russia seems determined to
challenge American leadership across the globe. Beneath the bold
Russian moves, there is profound distrust between the two countries.
Secretary of State John Kerry's personally warm
relationship with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has ensured
areas of cooperation, even agreement — but this could end.
Putin won't be deterred from challenging the
U.S. and with his economic woes growing at home he may be tempted to
double down on risky military moves — nowhere more so than in the Middle
East, where Syria is Putin's showcase for the Russian military.
The most profound challenge to the White House's
new occupant would be if Moscow made a move in one of the Baltic
states, which are members of NATO but are also home to substantial
ethnic Russian minorities. This is seen as an extremely unlikely
occurrence by experts but it cannot be completely ruled out. Related: Three Years After U.S. Pulled Tanks From Europe, They're Back
Any incursion would challenge Trump, as NATO's
biggest funder, to make a full-scale response based on the alliance's
fundamental principle — that an attack against one of its members is
considered an attack on all 28.
Another possible tripwire is the Russian enclave
of Kaliningrad, which lies between Lithuania and Poland and is home to
the Russian Baltic fleet. Russia has now moved nuclear capable
Iskander-M missile systems there.
Their indefinite placement puts U.S. missile
defense systems in Poland within range. Almost certainly, any Russian
move to test America's new leader here would be small scale — the
military tactic they call "maskirovka," or deception, seen most clearly
in 2014 when mysterious soldiers appeared in Ukraine's Crimea. These
soldiers, which Putin later admitted had been sent there by the Kremlin,
hastened the eventual Russian annexation of the peninsula.
The World's Longest Border
Putin's regime has insisted it is antagonizing
the United States in self-defense against what it perceives to be
Washington's aggressive policies.
Russia, the country with the longest land border
in the world, has historically been concerned about its neighbors'
military activities. Related: Trump Hints at New Relationship With NATO Allies
Russian leaders have for years watched with
alarm as NATO expands eastward toward the country's borders. Especially
alarming are plans for the U.S. missile defense elements in Eastern
Europe.
Trump's own plans may prove as damaging to NATO as Russia's. As a candidate, he sent waves of alarm through Europe when he said he might not come to the aid of NATO allies if they were attacked.
So these are dangerous days. Related: Why Obama Didn't Do More About Russian Hack
"Russia is still the only country that can
destroy the United States as a functioning society in 30 minutes ...
both sides maintain their nuclear forces on hair-trigger alert," Russia
experts Thomas Graham and Matthew Rojansky wrote in Foreign Policy magazine in October.
There are few good options for the U.S. and all carry risks.
Tillerson's 'Vast experience'
Trump's nomination of oil giant ExxonMobil CEO
Rex Tillerson as secretary of state on Dec. 13 may signal the
president-elect's strategy for dealing with Russia. While Tillerson has
no government or diplomatic experience, he does have exceptionally close
ties with Moscow and Putin.
While these links have drawn fire from both
Democrats and Republicans, it is likely that Trump actually sees the
connections as positive.
FROM DEC. 13: Tillerson is 'Gift for Putin,' Former Top Russian Minister Says
1:29
"The thing I like best about Rex Tillerson is
that he has vast experience at dealing successfully with all types of
foreign governments," Trump said via Twitter when the nomination was
announced.
Whatever Tillerson's relationship with Russian officials, Putin is now positioning himself to make maximum demands on Trump.
Obama failed to follow through on his famous
"red line" threat against the use of chemical weapons in Syria in 2013.
With this, Russia and many other countries smelled weakness in
Washington. Related: Donald Trump's Call for 'Arms Race' Boggles Nuclear Experts
Trump has already proven bullish with his rhetoric, suggesting on Twitter last week that the U.S. should expand its nuclear capabilities and telling MSNBC: "Let it be an arms race. We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all."
Putin, for his part, boasted during his annual press conference about the strength of his nuclear arsenal.
Trump's challenge is to show Moscow that America
isn't withdrawing from the world, or unwilling to share the burdens of
global leadership with a responsible Russia.
So after America and Europe both failed to deter
Putin, perhaps the best Trump will be able to do is repeat the Cold War
and ensure a balance of power through the threat of mutually assured
nuclear destruction — an uncomfortable policy that nonetheless provides
stability.
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