Wednesday, May 31, 2017

When the Sun goes dormant sometime this century?

One possible consequence of the sun going dormant for a time this century might be another little ice age like this one

Little Ice Age - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a period of cooling that occurred after the Medieval Warm Period. ...... CO;2-L. Jump up ^ https://web.archive.org/web/20031120203254/http://www.pac.ne.jp/IUGG2003/EN/program.asp?session_id= ...

Medieval Warm Period

The Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Medieval Climate Optimum, or ...

More results from wikipedia.org »

 

Little Ice Age

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
  (Redirected from The little ice age)
For the most recent period much colder than present and with significant glaciation, see Last glacial period.
The reconstructed depth of the Little Ice Age varies between different studies (anomalies shown are from the 1950–80 reference period)
The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a period of cooling that occurred after the Medieval Warm Period.[1] Although it was not a true ice age, the term was introduced into scientific literature by François E. Matthes in 1939.[2] It has been conventionally defined as a period extending from the 16th to the 19th centuries,[3][4][5] but some experts prefer an alternative timespan from about 1300[6] to about 1850.[7][8][9] Climatologists and historians working with local records no longer expect to agree on either the start or end dates of the period, which varied according to local conditions.
The NASA Earth Observatory notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, all separated by intervals of slight warming.[5] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report considered the timing and areas affected by the Little Ice Age suggested largely-independent regional climate changes rather than a globally-synchronous increased glaciation. At most, there was modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during the period.[10]
Several causes have been proposed: cyclical lows in solar radiation, heightened volcanic activity, changes in the ocean circulation, variations in Earth's orbit and axial tilt (orbital forcing), inherent variability in global climate, and decreases in the human population.

Contents

Areas involved

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report (TAR) of 2001 described the areas affected:
Evidence from mountain glaciers does suggest increased glaciation in a number of widely spread regions outside Europe prior to the twentieth century, including Alaska, New Zealand and Patagonia. However, the timing of maximum glacial advances in these regions differs considerably, suggesting that they may represent largely independent regional climate changes, not a globally-synchronous increased glaciation. Thus current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of anomalous cold or warmth over this interval, and the conventional terms of "Little Ice Age" and "Medieval Warm Period" appear to have limited utility in describing trends in hemispheric or global mean temperature changes in past centuries.... [Viewed] hemispherically, the "Little Ice Age" can only be considered as a modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during this period of less than 1°C relative to late twentieth century levels.[10]
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of 2007 discusses more recent research, giving particular attention to the Medieval Warm Period. It states that "when viewed together, the currently available reconstructions indicate generally greater variability in centennial time scale trends over the last 1 kyr than was apparent in the TAR.... The result is a picture of relatively cool conditions in the seventeenth and early nineteenth centuries and warmth in the eleventh and early fifteenth centuries, but the warmest conditions are apparent in the twentieth century. Given that the confidence levels surrounding all of the reconstructions are wide, virtually all reconstructions are effectively encompassed within the uncertainty previously indicated in the TAR. The major differences between the various proxy reconstructions relate to the magnitude of past cool excursions, principally during the twelfth to fourteenth, seventeenth and nineteenth centuries."[11]

Dating

The last written records of the Norse Greenlanders are from a 1408 marriage at Hvalsey Church, now the best-preserved of the Norse ruins.
There is no consensus regarding the time when the Little Ice Age began,[12][13] but a series of events before the known climatic minima has often been referenced. In the 13th century, pack ice began advancing southwards in the North Atlantic, as did glaciers in Greenland. Anecdotal evidence suggests expanding glaciers almost worldwide. Based on radiocarbon dating of roughly 150 samples of dead plant material with roots intact, collected from beneath ice caps on Baffin Island and Iceland, Miller et al. (2012)[6] state that cold summers and ice growth began abruptly between 1275 and 1300, followed by "a substantial intensification" from 1430 to 1455.[14]
In contrast, a climate reconstruction based on glacial length[15][16] shows no great variation from 1600 to 1850 but strong retreat thereafter.
Therefore, any of several dates ranging over 400 years may indicate the beginning of the Little Ice Age:
  • 1250 for when Atlantic pack ice began to grow; cold period possibly triggered or enhanced by the massive eruption of Samalas volcano in 1257[17]
  • 1275 to 1300 based on the radiocarbon dating of plants killed by glaciation
  • 1300 for when warm summers stopped being dependable in Northern Europe
  • 1315 for the rains and Great Famine of 1315–1317
  • 1550 for theorized beginning of worldwide glacial expansion
  • 1650 for the first climatic minimum.
The Little Ice Age ended in the latter half of the 19th century or early in the 20th century.[18][19][20]

Northern Hemisphere

Europe

The Frozen Thames, 1677
The Little Ice Age brought colder winters to parts of Europe and North America. Farms and villages in the Swiss Alps were destroyed by encroaching glaciers during the mid-17th century.[21] Canals and rivers in Great Britain and the Netherlands were frequently frozen deeply enough to support ice skating and winter festivals.[21] The first River Thames frost fair was in 1607 and the last in 1814; changes to the bridges and the addition of the Thames Embankment affected the river flow and depth, greatly diminishing the possibility of further freezes. Freezing of the Golden Horn and the southern section of the Bosphorus took place in 1622. In 1658, a Swedish army marched across the Great Belt to Denmark to attack Copenhagen. The winter of 1794–1795 was particularly harsh: the French invasion army under Pichegru was able to march on the frozen rivers of the Netherlands, and the Dutch fleet was fixed in the ice in Den Helder harbour.
Sea ice surrounding Iceland extended for miles in every direction, closing harbors to shipping. The population of Iceland fell by half, but that may have been caused by skeletal fluorosis after the eruption of Laki in 1783.[22] Iceland also suffered failures of cereal crops and people moved away from a grain-based diet.[23] The Norse colonies in Greenland starved and vanished by the early 15th century, as crops failed and livestock could not be maintained through increasingly harsh winters, but Jared Diamond has suggested they had exceeded the agricultural carrying capacity before then. Greenland was largely cut off by ice from 1410 to the 1720s.[24]
Winter skating on the main canal of Pompenburg, Rotterdam in 1825, shortly before the minimum, by Bartholomeus Johannes van Hove
The Twentieth Century climatologist Hubert Lamb said that in many years, "snowfall was much heavier than recorded before or since, and the snow lay on the ground for many months longer than it does today."[25] In Lisbon, Portugal, snowstorms were much more frequent than today; one winter in the 17th century produced eight snowstorms.[26] Many springs and summers were cold and wet but with great variability between years and groups of years. Crop practices throughout Europe had to be altered to adapt to the shortened, less reliable growing season, and there were many years of dearth and famine (such as the Great Famine of 1315–1317, but that may have been before the Little Ice Age).[27] According to Elizabeth Ewan and Janay Nugent, "Famines in France 1693–94, Norway 1695–96 and Sweden 1696–97 claimed roughly 10 percent of the population of each country. In Estonia and Finland in 1696–97, losses have been estimated at a fifth and a third of the national populations, respectively."[28] Viticulture disappeared from some northern regions and storms caused serious flooding and loss of life. Some of them resulted in permanent loss of large areas of land from the Danish, German, and Dutch coasts.[25]
The violin maker Antonio Stradivari produced his instruments during the Little Ice Age. The colder climate is proposed to have caused the wood used in his violins to be denser than in warmer periods, contributing to the tone of his instruments.[29] According to the science historian James Burke, the period inspired such novelties in everyday life as the widespread use of buttons and button-holes, knitting of custom-made undergarments to better cover and insulate the body. Fireplace hoods were installed to make more efficient use of fires for indoor heating, and enclosed stoves were developed, with early versions often covered with ceramic tiles.[30]
The Little Ice Age, by anthropology professor Brian Fagan of the University of California at Santa Barbara, tells of the plight of European peasants during the 1300 to 1850 chill: famines, hypothermia, bread riots and the rise of despotic leaders brutalizing an increasingly dispirited peasantry. In the late 17th century, agriculture had dropped off dramatically: "Alpine villagers lived on bread made from ground nutshells mixed with barley and oat flour." [31] Historian Wolfgang Behringer has linked intensive witch-hunting episodes in Europe to agricultural failures during the Little Ice Age.[32]

Depictions of winter in European painting

The Reverend Robert Walker Skating on Duddingston Loch, attributed to Henry Raeburn, 1790s
William James Burroughs analyses the depiction of winter in paintings, as does Hans Neuberger.[33] Burroughs asserts that it occurred almost entirely from 1565 to 1665 and was associated with the climatic decline from 1550 onwards. Burroughs claims that there had been almost no depictions of winter in art, and he "hypothesizes that the unusually harsh winter of 1565 inspired great artists to depict highly original images and that the decline in such paintings was a combination of the 'theme' having been fully explored and mild winters interrupting the flow of painting".[34] Wintry scenes, which entail technical difficulties in painting, have been regularly and well handled since the early 15th century by artists in illuminated manuscript cycles showing the Labours of the Months, typically placed on the calendar pages of books of hours. January and February are typically shown as snowy, as in February in the famous cycle in the Les Très Riches Heures du duc de Berry, painted 1412–1416 and illustrated below. Since landscape painting had not yet developed as independent genre in art, the absence of other winter scenes is not remarkable.
The Hunters in the Snow by Pieter Brueghel the Elder, 1565
The famous winter landscape paintings by Pieter Brueghel the Elder, such as The Hunters in the Snow, are all thought to have been painted in 1565. His son Pieter Brueghel the Younger (1564–1638) also painted many snowy landscapes, but according to Burroughs, he "slavishly copied his father's designs. The derivative nature of so much of this work makes it difficult to draw any definite conclusions about the influence of the winters between 1570 and 1600...".[34][35]
Winter landscape with iceskaters, c. 1608, Hendrick Avercamp
Burroughs says that snowy subjects return to Dutch Golden Age painting with works by Hendrick Avercamp from 1609 onwards. There is then a hiatus between 1627 and 1640, before the main period of such subjects from the 1640s to the 1660s, which relates well with climate records for the later period. The subjects are less popular after about 1660, but that does not match any recorded reduction in severity of winters and may reflect only changes in taste or fashion. In the later period between the 1780s and 1810s, snowy subjects again became popular.[34]
Neuberger analysed 12,000 paintings, held in American and European museums and dated between 1400 and 1967, for cloudiness and darkness.[33] His 1970 publication shows an increase in such depictions that corresponds to the Little Ice Age,[33] peaking between 1600 and 1649.[36]
Paintings and contemporary records in Scotland demonstrate that curling and ice skating were popular outdoor winter sports, with curling dating back to the 16th century and becoming widely popular in the mid-19th century.[37] As an example, an outdoor curling pond constructed in Gourock in the 1860s remained in use for almost a century, but increasing use of indoor facilities, problems of vandalism, and milder winters led to the pond being abandoned in 1963.[38]

North America

"February" from the calendar of Les Très Riches Heures du duc de Berry, 1412–1416
Early European explorers and settlers of North America reported exceptionally severe winters. For example, according to Lamb, Samuel Champlain reported bearing ice along the shores of Lake Superior in June 1608. Both Europeans and indigenous peoples suffered excess mortality in Maine during the winter of 1607–1608, and extreme frost was reported in the Jamestown, Virginia, settlement at the same time.[25] Native Americans formed leagues in response to food shortages.[24] The journal of Pierre de Troyes, Chevalier de Troyes, who led an expedition to James Bay in 1686, recorded that the bay was still littered with so much floating ice that he could hide behind it in his canoe on 1 July.[39] In the winter of 1780, New York Harbor froze, allowing people to walk from Manhattan Island to Staten Island.
The extent of mountain glaciers had been mapped by the late 19th century. In the north and the south temperate zones, snowlines (the boundaries separating zones of net accumulation from those of net ablation) were about 100 metres (330 ft) lower than they were in 1975.[40] In Glacier National Park, the last episode of glacier advance came in the late 18th and the early 19th centuries.[41] In Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, large temperature excursions were possibly related to changes in the strength of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation.[42]

Mesoamerica

An analysis of several proxies undertaken in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, linked by its authors to Maya and Aztec chronicles relating periods of cold and drought, supports the existence of the Little Ice Age in the region.[43]

Atlantic Ocean

In the North Atlantic, sediments accumulated since the end of the last ice age, nearly 12,000 years ago, show regular increases in the amount of coarse sediment grains deposited from icebergs melting in the now open ocean, indicating a series of 1–2 °C (2–4 °F) cooling events recurring every 1,500 years or so.[44] The most recent of these cooling events was the Little Ice Age. These same cooling events are detected in sediments accumulating off Africa, but the cooling events appear to be larger, ranging between 3–8 °C (6–14 °F).[45]

Asia

Although the original designation of a Little Ice Age referred to reduced temperature of Europe and North America, there is some evidence of extended periods of cooling outside this region, but it is not clear whether they are related or independent events. Mann states:[3]
While there is evidence that many other regions outside Europe exhibited periods of cooler conditions, expanded glaciation, and significantly altered climate conditions, the timing and nature of these variations are highly variable from region to region, and the notion of the Little Ice Age as a globally synchronous cold period has all but been dismissed.
In China, warm-weather crops such as oranges were abandoned in Jiangxi Province, where they had been grown for centuries.[46] Also, the two periods of most frequent typhoon strikes in Guangdong coincide with two of the coldest and driest periods in northern and central China (1660–1680, 1850–1880).[47]
In Pakistan, the Balochistan province became colder and the native Baloch people started mass migration and settled along the Indus River in Sindh and Punjab provinces.[48]

Southern Hemisphere

Scientific works point out cold spells and climate changes in areas of the Southern Hemisphere and their correlation to the Little Ice Age.

Africa

In Ethiopia and Mauritania, permanent snow was reported on mountain peaks at levels where it does not occur today.[46] Timbuktu, an important city on the trans-Saharan caravan route, was flooded at least 13 times by the Niger River; there are no records of similar flooding before or since.[46]
In Southern Africa, sediment cores retrieved from Lake Malawi show colder conditions between 1570 and 1820, suggesting the Lake Malawi records "further support, and extend, the global expanse of the Little Ice Age."[49] A novel 3,000-year temperature reconstruction method, based on the rate of stalagmite growth in a cold cave in South Africa, further suggests a cold period from 1500 to 1800 "characterizing the South African Little Ice age."[50] Periglacial features in the eastern Lesotho Highlands might have been reactivated by the Little Ice Age.[51]

Antarctica

CO2 mixing ratios at Law Dome
Kreutz et al. (1997) compared results from studies of West Antarctic ice cores with the Greenland Ice Sheet Project Two GISP2 and suggested a synchronous global Little Ice Age.[52] An ocean sediment core from the eastern Bransfield Basin in the Antarctic Peninsula shows centennial events that the authors link to the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period.[53] The authors note "other unexplained climatic events comparable in duration and amplitude to the LIA and MWP events also appear."
The Siple Dome (SD) had a climate event with an onset time that is coincident with that of the Little Ice Age in the North Atlantic based on a correlation with the GISP2 record. The event is the most dramatic climate event in the SD Holocene glaciochemical record.[54] The Siple Dome ice core also contained its highest rate of melt layers (up to 8%) between 1550 and 1700, most likely because of warm summers.[55] Law Dome ice cores show lower levels of CO2 mixing ratios from 1550 to 1800, which Etheridge and Steele conjecture are "probably as a result of colder global climate."[56]
Sediment cores in Bransfield Basin, Antarctic Peninsula, have neoglacial indicators by diatom and sea-ice taxa variations during the Little Ice Age.[57] The MES stable isotope record suggests that the Ross Sea region experienced 1.6 ± 1.4 °C cooler average temperatures during the Little Ice Age, compared to the last 150 years to now.[58]

Australia and New Zealand

Limited evidence describes conditions in Australia. Lake records in Victoria suggest that conditions, at least in the south of the state, were wet and/or unusually cool. In the north, evidence suggests fairly dry conditions, but coral cores from the Great Barrier Reef show similar rainfall as today but with less variability. A study that analyzed isotopes in Great Barrier Reef corals suggested that increased water vapor transport from southern tropical oceans to the poles contributed to the Little Ice Age.[59] Borehole reconstructions from Australia suggest that over the last 500 years, the 17th century was the coldest on the continent, but the borehole temperature reconstruction method does not show good agreement between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.[60]
On the west coast of the Southern Alps of New Zealand, the Franz Josef glacier advanced rapidly during the Little Ice Age and reached its maximum extent in the early 18th century, in one of the few cases of a glacier thrusting into a rain forest.[31] Based on dating of a yellow-green lichen of the Rhizocarpon subgenus, the Mueller Glacier, on the eastern flank of the Southern Alps within Aoraki/Mount Cook National Park, is considered to have been at its maximum extent between 1725 and 1730.[61]

Pacific Islands

Sea-level data for the Pacific Islands suggest that sea level in the region fell, possibly in two stages, between 1270 and 1475. This was associated with a 1.5 °C fall in temperature (determined from oxygen-isotope analysis) and an observed increase in El Niño frequency.[62] Tropical Pacific coral records indicate the most frequent, intense El Niño-Southern Oscillation activity in the mid-seventeenth century.[63]

South America

Tree-ring data from Patagonia show cold episodes between 1270 and 1380 and from 1520 to 1670, contemporary with the events in the Northern Hemisphere.[64][65] Eight sediment cores taken from Puyehue Lake have been interpreted as showing a humid period from 1470 to 1700, which the authors describe as a regional marker of the onset of the Little Ice Age.[66] A 2009 paper details cooler and wetter conditions in southeastern South America between 1550 and 1800, citing evidence obtained via several proxies and models.[67] 18O records from three Andean ice cores show a cool period from 1600–1800 [68]
Although only anecdotal evidence, in 1675 the Spanish explorer Antonio de Vea entered San Rafael Lagoon through Río Témpanos (Spanish for "Ice Floe River") without mentioning any ice floe but stating that the San Rafael Glacier did not reach far into the lagoon. In 1766, another expedition noticed that the glacier reached the lagoon and calved into large icebergs. Hans Steffen visited the area in 1898, noticing that the glacier penetrated far into the lagoon. Such historical records indicate a general cooling in the area between 1675 and 1898: "The recognition of the LIA in northern Patagonia, through the use of documentary sources, provides important, independent evidence for the occurrence of this phenomenon in the region."[69] As of 2001, the border of the glacier had significantly retreated as compared to the borders of 1675.[69]

Possible causes

Scientists have tentatively identified these possible causes of the Little Ice Age: orbital cycles, decreased solar activity, increased volcanic activity, altered ocean current flows,[70] the inherent variability of global climate, and reforestation following decreases in the human population.

Orbital cycles

Main article: Milankovich cycles
Orbital forcing from cycles in the earth's orbit around the sun has, for the past 2,000 years, caused a long-term northern hemisphere cooling trend that continued through the Middle Ages and the Little Ice Age. The rate of Arctic cooling is roughly 0.02 °C per century.[71] This trend could be extrapolated to continue into the future, possibly leading to a full ice age, but the twentieth-century instrumental temperature record shows a sudden reversal of this trend, with a rise in global temperatures attributed to greenhouse gas emissions.[71]

Solar activity

Main article: Solar variation
Solar activity events recorded in radiocarbon
The Maunder minimum in a 400-year history of sunspot numbers
There is still a very poor understanding of the correlation between low sunspot activity and cooling temperatures.[72][73] During the period 1645–1715, in the middle of the Little Ice Age, there was a period of low solar activity known as the Maunder Minimum. The Spörer Minimum has also been identified with a significant cooling period between 1460 and 1550.[74] Other indicators of low solar activity during this period are levels of the isotopes carbon-14 and beryllium-10.[75]

Volcanic activity

In a 2012 paper, Miller et al. link the Little Ice Age to an "unusual 50-year-long episode with four large sulfur-rich explosive eruptions, each with global sulfate loading >60 Tg" and notes that "large changes in solar irradiance are not required."[6]
Throughout the Little Ice Age, the world experienced heightened volcanic activity.[76] When a volcano erupts, its ash reaches high into the atmosphere and can spread to cover the whole earth. The ash cloud blocks out some of the incoming solar radiation, leading to worldwide cooling that can last up to two years after an eruption. Also emitted by eruptions is sulfur, in the form of sulfur dioxide gas. When it reaches the stratosphere, it turns into sulfuric acid particles, which reflect the sun's rays, further reducing the amount of radiation reaching Earth's surface.
A recent study found that an especially massive tropical volcanic eruption in 1257, possibly of the now-extinct Mount Samalas near Mount Rinjani, both in Lombok, Indonesia, followed by three smaller eruptions in 1268, 1275, and 1284 did not allow the climate to recover. This may have caused the initial cooling, and the 1452–53 eruption of Kuwae in Vanuatu triggered a second pulse of cooling.[6][14] The cold summers can be maintained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks long after volcanic aerosols are removed.
Other volcanoes that erupted during the era and may have contributed to the cooling include Billy Mitchell (ca. 1580), Huaynaputina (1600), Mount Parker (1641), Long Island (Papua New Guinea) (ca. 1660), and Laki (1783).[21] The 1815 eruption of Tambora, also in Indonesia, blanketed the atmosphere with ash; the following year, 1816, came to be known as the Year Without a Summer, when frost and snow were reported in June and July in both New England and Northern Europe.

Ocean circulation

Thermohaline circulation or Oceanic conveyor belt illustrated
Another possibility is that there was a slowing of thermohaline circulation.[40][70][77][78] The circulation could have been interrupted by the introduction of a large amount of fresh water into the North Atlantic, possibly caused by a period of warming before the Little Ice Age known as the Medieval Warm Period.[31][79][80] There is some concern that a shutdown of thermohaline circulation could happen again as a result of the present warming period.[81][82]

Decreased human populations

Some researchers have proposed that human influences on climate began earlier than is normally supposed (see Early anthropocene for more details) and that major population declines in Eurasia and the Americas reduced this impact, leading to a cooling trend. William Ruddiman has proposed that somewhat reduced populations of Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East during and after the Black Death caused a decrease in agricultural activity. He suggests reforestation took place, allowing more carbon dioxide uptake from the atmosphere, which may have been a factor in the cooling noted during the Little Ice Age. Ruddiman further hypothesizes that a reduced population in the Americas after European contact in the early sixteenth century could have had a similar effect.[83][84] Faust, Gnecco, Mannstein and Stamm (2005)[85] and Nevle (2011)[86] supported depopulation in the Americas as a factor, asserting that humans had cleared considerable amounts of forest to support agriculture in the Americas before the arrival of Europeans brought on a population collapse. A 2008 study of sediment cores and soil samples further suggests that carbon dioxide uptake via reforestation in the Americas could have contributed to the Little Ice Age.[87] The depopulation is linked to a drop in carbon dioxide levels observed at Law Dome, Antarctica.[85]

Increased human populations

It has been speculated that increased human populations living at high latitudes caused the Little Ice Age through deforestation. The increased albedo due to this deforestation (more reflection of solar rays from snow-covered ground than dark, tree-covered area) could have had a profound effect on global temperatures.[88]

Inherent variability of climate

Spontaneous fluctuations in global climate might explain past variability. It is very difficult to know what the true level of variability from only internal causes might be since other forcings, as noted above, exist whose magnitude may not be known either. One approach to evaluating internal variability is to use long integrations of coupled ocean-atmosphere global climate models. They have the advantage that the external forcing is known to be zero, but the disadvantage is that they may not fully reflect reality. The variations may result from chaos-driven changes in the oceans, the atmosphere, or interactions between the two.[89] Two studies have concluded that the demonstrated inherent variability is not great enough to account for the Little Ice Age.[89][90]

See also

References


  • Ladurie, Emmanuel Le Roy (1971). Times of Feast, Times of Famine: a History of Climate Since the Year 1000. Barbara Bray. Garden City, NY: Doubleday. ISBN 0-374-52122-0. OCLC 164590.
    1. Hunt, B. G. (2006). "The Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and simulated climatic variability". Climate Dynamics. 27 (7–8): 677–694. doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0153-5.

    Further reading

    External links

    Navigation menu


  • Matthes, F.E. (1939). "Report of the committee on glaciers". Transactions of the American Geophysical Union: 518–23. Matthes described glaciers in the Sierra Nevada of California that he believed could not have survived the hypsithermal; his usage of "Little Ice Age" has been superseded by "Neoglaciation".

  • Mann, Michael (2003). "Little Ice Age". In Michael C MacCracken; John S Perry. Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, Volume 1, The Earth System: Physical and Chemical Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (PDF). John Wiley & Sons. Retrieved 17 November 2012.

  • Lamb, HH (1972). "The cold Little Ice Age climate of about 1550 to 1800". Climate: present, past and future. London: Methuen. p. 107. ISBN 0-416-11530-6. (noted in Grove 2004:4).

  • "Earth observatory Glossary L-N". NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Green Belt MD: NASA. Retrieved 17 July 2015.

  • Miller et al. 2012. "Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks" Geophysical Research Letters 39, 31 January: abstract (formerly on AGU website) (accessed via wayback machine 11 July 2015); see press release on AGU website (accessed 11 July 2015).

  • Grove, J.M., Little Ice Ages: Ancient and Modern, Routledge, London (2 volumes) 2004.

  • Matthews, J.A. and Briffa, K.R., "The 'Little Ice Age': re-evaluation of an evolving concept", Geogr. Ann., 87, A (1), pp. 17–36 (2005). Retrieved 17 July 2015.

  • "1.4.3 Solar Variability and the Total Solar Irradiance – AR4 WGI Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science". Ipcc.ch. Retrieved 24 June 2013.

  • "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis". UNEP/GRID-Arendal. Retrieved 2 August 2007.

  • AR4 WG1 Section 6.6: The Last 2,000 Years, 2007.

  • Jones, Philip D. (2001). History and climate: memories of the future?. Springer. p. 154.

  • According to JM Lamb of Cambridge University the little ice age was already under way in Canada and Switzerland and in the wider North Atlantic region in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries

  • Was the Little Ice Age Triggered by Massive Volcanic Eruptions? ScienceDaily, 30 January 2012 (accessed 21 May 2012)

  • "Worldwide glacier retreat". RealClimate. Retrieved 2 August 2007.

  • Oerlemans, Johannes Hans Oerlemans (2005). "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records" (PDF). Science. 308 (5722): 675–7. Bibcode:2005Sci...308..675O. doi:10.1126/science.1107046. PMID 15746388. Retrieved 25 December 2009.

  • "The mystery event in 1257 was so large its chemical signature is recorded in the ice of both the Arctic and the Antarctic. European medieval texts talk of a sudden cooling of the climate, and of failed harvests." [1]

  • Hendy, E.; Gagan, M.; Alibert, C.; McCulloch, M.; Lough, J.; Isdale, P. (2002). "Abrupt decrease in tropical Pacific sea surface salinity at end of Little Ice Age". Science. 295 (5559): 1511–1514. Bibcode:2002Sci...295.1511H. doi:10.1126/science.1067693. PMID 11859191.

  • "Little Ice Age" Research: A Perspective from Iceland", Climatic Change, 48: 9–52, doi:10.1023/A:1005625729889

  • "About INQUA:Quaternary Science (By S.C. Porter)". INQUA. Retrieved 6 May 2010.

  • Jonathan Cowie (2007). Climate change: biological and human aspects. Cambridge University Press. p. 164. ISBN 978-0-521-69619-7.

  • Stone, Richard (19 November 2004). "Iceland's Doomsday Scenario?". Science. 306 (5700): 1278–81. doi:10.1126/science.306.5700.1278. PMID 15550636.

  • [2] Archived 20 February 2012 at the Wayback Machine.

  • "SVS Science Story: Ice Age". NASA Scientific Visualization Studio. Retrieved 2 August 2007.

  • Lamb, Hubert H. (1995). "The little ice age". Climate, history and the modern world. London: Routledge. pp. 211–241. ISBN 0-415-12734-3.

  • "Arquivo de eventos históricos – Página 4 – MeteoPT.com – Fórum de Meteorologia". MeteoPT.com. 17 July 2012. Retrieved 24 June 2013.

  • Cullen, Karen J. (30 May 2010). Famine in Scotland: The 'Ill Years' of The 1690s. Edinburgh University Press. p. 20. ISBN 978-0-7486-3887-1.

  • Ewanu, Elizabeth; Nugent, Janay (2 November 2008). Finding the Family in Medieval and Early Modern Scotland. Ashgate. p. 153. ISBN 978-0-7546-6049-1.

  • Whitehouse, David (17 December 2003). "Stradivarius' sound 'due to Sun'". BBC.

  • James Burke, "Connections", TV series

  • Fagan 2001

  • Behringer, Wolfgang (1 September 1999). "Climatic Change and Witch-hunting: the Impact of the Little Ice Age on Mentalities". Climatic Change. Springer Netherlands. 43 (1): 335–351. doi:10.1023/A:1005554519604.

  • Macdougall, Douglas (2004). Frozen Earth: The Once and Future Story of Ice Ages. University of California Press. p. 225. ISBN 0-520-24824-4.

  • Huddart, David; Stott, Tim (6 April 2010). Earth Environments: Past, Present and Future. Wiley. p. 863. ISBN 978-0-470-74960-9.

  • Burroughs, William (1980-12-18). New Scientist. Reed Business Information. pp. 768–. ISSN 0262-4079. 1980 article in the New Scientist

  • John E. Thornes; John Constable (1999). John Constable's skies: a fusion of art and science. Continuum International. p. 32. ISBN 1-902459-02-4.

  • "Kilsyth Curling". Retrieved 11 September 2010.

  • "The Story so Far !!!". Gourock Curling Club. 2009. Retrieved 11 September 2010.

  • Kenyon W.A.; Turnbull J.R. (1971). The Battle for James Bay. Toronto: Macmillan Company of Canada Limited.

  • Broecker WS (February 2000). "Was a change in thermohaline circulation responsible for the Little Ice Age?". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 97 (4): 1339–42. Bibcode:2000PNAS...97.1339B. doi:10.1073/pnas.97.4.1339. PMC 34299 Freely accessible. PMID 10677462.

  • National Park Service

  • Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, G. S.; Kamiya, T.; Schwede, S.; Willard, D. A. (2003). "Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and 20th Century Climate Variability from Chesapeake Bay". Global and Planetary Change. 36 (1–2): 17–29. Bibcode:2003GPC....36...17C. doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(02)00161-3.

  • David A. Hodella; Mark Brennera; Jason H. Curtisa; Roger Medina-Gonzálezb; Enrique Ildefonso-Chan Canb; Alma Albornaz-Patb; Thomas P. Guilderson (March 2005). "Climate change on the Yucatan Peninsula during the Little Ice Age". Quaternary Research. 63 (2): 109. Bibcode:2005QuRes..63..109H. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2004.11.004.

  • Bond et al., 1997

  • "Abrupt Climate Changes Revisited: How Serious and How Likely?". USGCRP Seminar. US Global Change Research Program. 23 February 1998.

  • Reiter P (2000). "From Shakespeare to Defoe: malaria in England in the Little Ice Age". Emerging Infect. Dis. 6 (1): 1–11. doi:10.3201/eid0601.000101. PMC 2627969 Freely accessible. PMID 10653562.

  • Kam-biu Liu; Caiming Shen; Kin-sheun Louie (2001). "A 1,000-Year History of Typhoon Landfalls in Guangdong, Southern China, Reconstructed from Chinese Historical Documentary Records". Annals of the Association of American Geographers. 91 (3): 453–464. doi:10.1111/0004-5608.00253.

  • From Zardaris to Makranis: How the Baloch came to Sindh

  • Johnson, T.C., Barry, S., Chan, Y., Wilkinson, P. (2001). "Decadal record of climate variability spanning the past 700 yr in the Southern Tropics of East Africa". Geology. 29: 83–6. Bibcode:2001Geo....29...83J. doi:10.1130/0091-7613(2001)029<0083:drocvs>2.0.CO;2. ISSN 0091-7613.

  • Holmgren, K., Tyson, P.D., Moberg, A., Svanered, O. (2001). "A preliminary 3000-year regional temperature reconstruction for South Africa". South African Journal of Science. 97: 49–51.

  • Fitchett, J.M.; Grab, S.W. (2016). "A multi-disciplinary review of late Quaternary palaeoclimates and environments for Lesotho". South African Journal of Science. 112 (7/8): 1–9.

  • Kreutz, K.J., Mayewski, P.A., Meeker, L.D., Twickler, M.S., Whitlow, S.I., Pittalwala, I.I. (1997). "Bipolar changes in atmospheric circulation during the Little Ice Age". Science. 277 (5330): 1294–96. doi:10.1126/science.277.5330.1294.

  • Khim, B.-K.; Yoon H. I.; Kang C. Y.; Bahk J. J. (November 2002). "Unstable Climate Oscillations during the Late Holocene in the Eastern Bransfield Basin, Antarctic Peninsula". Quaternary Research. 58 (3): 234–245. Bibcode:2002QuRes..58..234K. doi:10.1006/qres.2002.2371.

  • "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 6 June 2002. Retrieved 2005-05-22.

  • [3] Archived 7 October 2006 at the Wayback Machine.

  • D.M. Etheridge; L.P. Steele; R.L. Langenfelds; R.J. Francey; J.-M. Barnola; V.I. Morgan. "Historical CO2 Records from the Law Dome DE08, DE08-2, and DSS Ice Cores". Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn.

  • M. Angeles Bárcena; Rainer Gersonde; Santiago Ledesma; Joan Fabrés; Antonio M. Calafat; Miquel Canals; F. Javier Sierro; Jose A. Flores (1998). "Record of Holocene glacial oscillations in Bransfield Basin as revealed by siliceous microfossil assemblages". Antarctic Science. 10 (3): 269–85. doi:10.1017/S0954102098000364.

  • Rhodes et al: "Little Ice Age climate and oceanic conditions of the Ross Sea, Antarctica from a coastal ice core record". Clim. Past, 8, 1223–1238, 2012.

  • Erica J. Hendy; Michael K. Gagan; Chantal A. Alibert; Malcolm T. McCulloch; Janice M. Lough; Peter J. Isdale (22 February 2002). "Abrupt Decrease in Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Salinity at End of Little Ice Age". Science. 295 (5559): 1511–4. Bibcode:2002Sci...295.1511H. doi:10.1126/science.1067693. PMID 11859191.

  • Pollack, H. N., Huang, S., Smerdon, J. E. (2006). "Five centuries of climate change in Australia: the view from underground". J. Quaternary Sci. 21 (7): 701–6. Bibcode:2006JQS....21..701P. doi:10.1002/jqs.1060.

  • Winkler, Stefan (2000). "The 'Little Ice Age' maximum in the Southern Alps, New Zealand: preliminary results at Mueller Glacier". The Holocene. 10 (5): 643–647. doi:10.1191/095968300666087656. Retrieved 27 June 2010.

  • Nunn, P.D. (2000). "Environmental catastrophe in the Pacific Islands around AD 1300". Geoarchaeology. 15 (7): 715–40. doi:10.1002/1520-6548(200010)15:7<715::aid-gea4>3.0.CO;2-L.

  • https://web.archive.org/web/20031120203254/http://www.pac.ne.jp/IUGG2003/EN/program.asp?session_id=MC12&program_id=022025-1. Archived from the original on 20 November 2003. Missing or empty |title= (help)

  • Villalba, R. (1990). "Climatic fluctuations in Northern Patagonian during the last 1000 years as inferred from tree-rings records". Quaternary Research. 34 (3): 346–60. Bibcode:1990QuRes..34..346V. doi:10.1016/0033-5894(90)90046-N.

  • Villalba, R (1994). "Tree-ring and glacial evidence for the medieval warm epoch and the Little Ice Age in southern South America". Climatic Change. 26 (2–3): 183–97. doi:10.1007/BF01092413.

  • Sébastien Bertranda; Xavier Boësa; Julie Castiauxa; François Charletb; Roberto Urrutiac; Cristian Espinozac; Gilles Lepointd; Bernard Charliere; Nathalie Fage (2005). "Temporal evolution of sediment supply in Lago Puyehue (Southern Chile) during the last 600 yr and its climatic significance". Quaternary Research. 64 (2): 163. Bibcode:2005QuRes..64..163B. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2005.06.005.

  • Meyer, I.; Wagner, S. (2009). "The Little Ice Age in Southern South America: Proxy and Model Based Evidence". Past Climate Variability in South America and Surrounding Regions. Developments in Paleoenvironmental Research. 14. p. 395. doi:10.1007/978-90-481-2672-9_16. ISBN 978-90-481-2671-2.

  • Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E.; Davis, M. E.; Lin, P. N.; Henderson, K.; Mashiotta, T. A. (2003). "Tropical Glacier and Ice Core Evidence of Climate Change on Annual to Millennial Time Scales". Climate Variability and Change in High Elevation Regions: Past, Present & Future. Advances in Global Change Research. 15. p. 137. doi:10.1007/978-94-015-1252-7_8. ISBN 978-90-481-6322-9.

  • Araneda, A., F. Torrejón, M. Aguayo, L. Torres, F. Cruces, M. Cisternas, R. Urrutia (2007). "Historical records of San Rafael glacier advances (North Patagonian Icefield): another clue to 'Little Ice Age' timing in southern Chile?". The Holocene. 17 (7): 987–98. doi:10.1177/0959683607082414.

  • Jr, Alan D. Wanamaker; Butler, Paul G.; Scourse, James D.; Heinemeier, Jan; Eiríksson, Jón; Knudsen, Karen Luise; Richardson, Christopher A. (June 12, 2012). "Surface changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last millennium". Nature Communications. 3: 899. doi:10.1038/ncomms1901. PMC 3621426 Freely accessible. PMID 22692542.

  • Kaufman, D. S.; Schneider, D. P.; McKay, N. P.; Ammann, C. M.; Bradley, R. S.; Briffa, K. R.; Miller, G. H.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Overpeck, J. T.; Vinther, B. M.; Abbott, M.; Axford, M.; Bird, Y.; Birks, B.; Bjune, H. J. B.; Briner, A. E.; Cook, J.; Chipman, T.; Francus, M.; Gajewski, P.; Geirsdottir, K.; Hu, A.; Kutchko, F. S.; Lamoureux, B.; Loso, S.; MacDonald, M.; Peros, G.; Porinchu, M.; Schiff, D.; Seppa, C.; Seppa, H.; Arctic Lakes 2k Project Members (2009). "Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling". Science. 325 (5945): 1236–1239. doi:10.1126/science.1173983. PMID 19729653.
    "Arctic Warming Overtakes 2,000 Years of Natural Cooling". UCAR. 3 September 2009. Archived from the original on 27 April 2011. Retrieved 19 May 2011.
    Bello, David (4 September 2009). "Global Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling". Scientific American. Retrieved 19 May 2011.

  • Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., p. 29, 2005.

  • Sunspot Activity at 8,000-Year High Space.com Astronomy 27 October 2004

  • Geoffrey Parker; Lesley M. Smith (1997). The general crisis of the seventeenth century. Routledge. pp. 287, 288. ISBN 978-0-415-16518-1.

  • Crowley, Thomas J. (14 July 2000). "Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years". Science. 289 (5477): 270–7. Bibcode:2000Sci...289..270C. doi:10.1126/science.289.5477.270. PMID 10894770.

  • Robock, Alan (21 December 1979). "The "Little Ice Age": Northern Hemisphere Average Observations and Model Calculations". Science. 206 (4425): 1402–4. Bibcode:1979Sci...206.1402R. doi:10.1126/science.206.4425.1402. PMID 17739301.

  • "A Chilling Possibility – NASA Science". Science.nasa.gov. Retrieved 24 June 2013.

  • Hopkin, Michael (29 November 2006). "Gulf Stream weakened in 'Little Ice Age'". Nature News. External link in |work= (help)

  • Villanueva, John Carl (19 October 2009). "Little Ice Age". Universe Today. Retrieved 22 September 2010.

  • Pittenger, Richard F.; Gagosian, Robert B. (October 2003). "Global Warming Could Have a Chilling Effect on the Military" (PDF). Defense Horizons. National Defense Univ Washington DC Center for Technology and National Security Policy. 33. Retrieved 22 September 2010.

  • Leake, Jonathan (8 May 2005). "Britain faces big chill as ocean current slows". The Times. London. Retrieved 11 May 2010.

  • "Hot Planet — Cold Comfort". Alan Alda in Scientific American Frontiers. Only a Little Ice Age. 16 February 2005. PBS.

  • Ravilious, Kate (27 February 2006). "Europe's chill linked to disease". BBC.

  • Ruddiman, William F. (2003). "The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago" (PDF). Climatic Change. 61 (3): 261–293. doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000004577.17928.fa.

  • "Evidence for the Postconquest Demographic Collapse of the Americas in Historical CO2 Levels". American Meteorological Society through Allenpress.com. 2006. Retrieved 1 February 2010.

  • R.J. Nevle et al., "Ecological-hydrological effects of reduced biomass burning in the neotropics after A.D. 1500," Geological Society of America Meeting, Minneapolis MN, 11 October 2011 . abstract. Popular summary: "Columbus' arrival linked to carbon dioxide drop: Depopulation of Americas may have cooled climate," Science News, 5 November 2011. (access date 2 January 2012)

  • Bergeron, Louis (17 December 2008). "Reforestation helped trigger Little Ice Age, researchers say". Stanford News Service.

  • Ellis, Erle; Kaplan, Jed; Fuller, Dorian; Vavrus, Steve; Goldewijk, Kees Klein; Verburg, Peter (April 29, 2013). "Used planet: A global history". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 110 (20): 7978–7985. doi:10.1073/pnas.1217241110. PMC 3657770 Freely accessible. PMID 23630271. Retrieved December 5, 2015.

  • Melissa Free; Alan Robock (27 August 1999). "Global Warming in the Context of the Little Ice Age" (PDF). Rutgers University, originally published in Journal of Geophysical Research. Retrieved 3 January 2010.

    • Posted by at

    No comments:

    Post a Comment

    Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)