Map of ISIS: Growing reach... but a complex picture
Story highlights
- Well-trained or lone wolves? ISIS "brand" is covering the spectrum
- Group's focus is on its caliphate, but it has ties to groups with other priorities
(CNN)The map of ISIS "activity" makes for frightening reading.
The
group or its affiliates claim conspiracies and attacks on four
continents; its self-declared "provinces" cut a swath across the Middle
East and Africa; and it has begun to take the war to its enemies with
the bombing of the Russian Metrojet airliner over Sinai and the Paris
attacks.
There's
still a huge difference between the "ISIS core" carrying out mass
murder in Iraq and Syria or seizing a city the size of Ramadi, and an
infatuated follower in Boston or London picking up a carving knife. At
one end of the spectrum, there are well-trained fighting units and bomb
factories operating in ISIS' heartland. At the other are lone wolves who
adopt the group's moniker and language in the solitude of their
apartments, and who adopt the ISIS "brand" because it has a dynamism and
cachet that al Qaeda no longer possesses.
But there also are many shades in between these poles.
A
CNN "map of ISIS" shows the group's rapid geographical spread, but also
seeks to distinguish between what it and its affiliates direct, what
they support and what is done in their name without their even being
aware. The recent gun attack in San Bernardino, California, is the most
striking example of this last category.
The
group's focus very much remains on its caliphate -- the land it holds
from Fallujah in Iraq to Raqqa in Syria and beyond, and the estimated 11
million people who live in areas it controls. But it has accepted the
allegiance of groups from Ansar Beit al-Maqdis in Egypt to Boko Haram in
Nigeria. And it clearly sees opportunities in Libya -- where it has
declared three wilayat, or provinces -- in Yemen, Afghanistan and even Somalia.
Now
it appears that ISIS' Shura Council -- which sets the group's strategy
-- may have given its blessing to al Qaeda-style terror attacks in
Europe, opening a new front in the "Far Abroad" in retaliation for the
thousands of airstrikes aimed at its leadership and fighters since
August 2014.
The ISIS affiliates
In
each case, the relationships between ISIS and its affiliates are
difficult to pin down. In Libya, militants in the town of Derna pledged
allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in November 2014 -- a
pledge that was immediately accepted. And it appears that leading
figures from Iraq have been sent to Libya to help run operations there.
65 photos: The ISIS terror threat
Regional sources told CNN some months ago
that Abu Ali al-Anbari, a senior ISIS official in Syria, had been
dispatched to Libya. Recent Libyan reports -- which cannot be confirmed
-- say al-Anbari is now in Sirte, one of the few places beyond Iraq and
Syria held by an ISIS affiliate. Another al-Anbari (Abu Nabil) was sent
to Derna from Iraq last year.
The
Islamic State in North Sinai (ISNS) -- a large and sparsely populated
part of Egypt -- is a largely homegrown group, and there has been scant
evidence to date that its operations are shaped by ISIS core. The group
was known as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis before declaring its affiliation to
ISIS in November 2014. But since then, both the scale and frequency of
its attacks on the Egyptian military have grown exponentially. It has for the first time beheaded a Western hostage.
But
the downing of the Metrojet flight was a game-changer for both ISNS and
ISIS. ISNS made the initial claim of responsibility, saying: "We are
the ones with God's blessing who brought it down. And God willing one
day we will reveal how at the time we desire."
ISIS
followed up with publication of a photograph of the alleged device (a
soda can and detonator) in its online magazine Dabiq. What is unknown:
whether the affiliate was instructed or helped by ISIS' "head office" to
carry out the attack.
It is difficult
to imagine that ISIS' fast-evolving footprint in Yemen could have been
achieved without some assistance from the central leadership. In a
crowded jihadist landscape, and apparently with the help of some
defections from the al Qaeda franchise, ISIS in Yemen has claimed
responsibility for devastating attacks on both the Houthi minority and
the Saudi-led military coalition this year, often eclipsing the
longer-established al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP.)
Boko Haram's pledge
of allegiance to ISIS in March coincided with a revamp of the Nigerian
group's media activity, as it adopted the sharper production values of
ISIS and boasted ISIS-style punishments, such as beheadings.
8 photos: Dozens dead after bomb attack in Turkey
ISIS
accepted the pledge and congratulated its "jihadi brothers" in West
Africa. But there are no indications that ISIS has any say in the
mercurial brutality that continues to be Boko Haram's hallmark. The
leadership of the two groups could not be more different. ISIS makes few
references to its West African affiliate's operations and Boko Haram
rarely mentions al-Baghdadi or the Islamic State.
ISIS has not declared a wilayat
in Turkey but has shown that it has the capability to strike there with
devastating effect, exploiting the porous border with Syria and a
network of safe houses inside Turkey.
Turkish officials have blamed ISIS
for the suicide bombings in Suruc in July and the double bombing in
Ankara in October, though the organization itself has not claimed
responsibility for either. ISIS also managed to track down and kill deep
inside Turkey two Syrian activists who had exposed its brutality in
Raqqa.
Now add Lebanon to ISIS'
regional reach, even if its presence there had been widely suspected
before the suicide bombings in November that targeted its arch enemy,
the Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah.
Jihadists to and from the caliphate
Even
before the Paris attacks, evidence was emerging that some of those
plotting or carrying out attacks in Europe had spent time in ISIS
territory in Syria or Iraq -- demonstrating a direct link between the
hierarchy and conspiracies far from its heartland.
In
France, a 24-year old IT student, Sid Ahmed Ghlam, was arrested in
April and charged with the killing of a woman. He had spent time in
Turkey and possibly Syria in 2014. The Paris prosecutor, Francois
Molins, alleged Ghlam was planning terror
attacks against one or more churches and had "acted following
instructions given to him, in all likelihood, from Syria, on behalf of
terrorist organizations."
The man
accused of carrying out a gun attack against a Jewish museum in
Brussels, Mehdi Nemmouche, was known to have traveled to Syria; an ISIS
flag was discovered in his belongings. A French journalist who had been
held hostage in Syria alleged Nemmouche had been among his jailers. Nemmouche awaits trial in Belgium.
32 photos: Night of terror: Paris attacks
Belgian
authorities moved against a cell in Verviers last January that had
stocked weapons and explosives in a safe house. Three of the cell
members had spent time in Syria. Two were killed in a gunbattle; Belgian investigators believe they and a third man arrested were in contact with a Belgian ISIS operative in Syria called Abdelhamid Abaaoud.
Abaaoud,
of course, later smuggled himself into France, as had several others
who had been to Syria, to plan and carry out the Paris attacks on
November 13 -- the deadliest terror attack in French history. It was the
starkest example of yet of ISIS' ambitions and capabilities, of its
exploitation both of migrant flows into Europe and existing jihadist
networks.
In response to the growing evidence of jihadists returning to Europe, the U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation that would oblige anyone who had visited Syria, Iraq, Iran or Sudan to obtain a visa before traveling to the United States.
Social media help ISIS go global
ISIS'
intensive use of social media and even online gaming platforms to
recruit and communicate sets it apart from other terror groups. It also
makes it more difficult to distinguish between plots that are directed,
encouraged or simply inspired. Online recruitment has been especially
active in Saudi Arabia, which has -- like other Gulf states -- seen an
uptick in attacks claimed by ISIS.
More
difficult to categorize are many of the conspiracies claimed by (or
blamed on) ISIS in both Europe and the United States. In the United
States, that's sometimes because authorities prefer prompt arrests to
extended monitoring. The ultimate intentions and capabilities of
suspects (not to mention their contacts) therefore go undiscovered.
Some
of those charged with aiding ISIS or plotting in its name have been
radicalized online, thanks to the multilingual, multiplatform onslaught
by the group, and the effort it puts in to recruiting sympathizers. On
Twitter, Facebook and other social media, these individuals are
encouraged or prodded toward joining the cause with their own act of
jihad.
Terror groups do not order or
direct 'do-it-yourself' acts, nor even have advance knowledge of them.
Rather, their supporters keep up a constant drumbeat of incitement via social media.
Elton
Simpson and Nadir Soofi were two examples of this phenomenon. They
launched an abortive gun attack on an exhibition of cartoons of the
Prophet Mohammed in Garland, Texas, this year. Both were killed by
police.
Simpson's Twitter feed included associations with known ISIS supporters.
"He
followed more than 400 users, ranging from pro-IS supporters to
hardcore IS fighters from around the world," wrote Rita Katz, director
of the SITE Intelligence Group. Simpson was serious in his commitment:
In just three weeks he changed his handle and username at least three
times.
18 photos: Hostage situation at Paris grocery
U.S.
officials believe that Usaamah Rahim -- who this past summer was shot
dead in Boston as he planned to attack police with a military-style
knife --may also have had contacts with individuals associated with
ISIS. They found no specific direction from the group,
but a well-known ISIS propagandist -- Junaid Hussein -- claimed on
Twitter that he had urged Rahim to carry a knife in case anyone
attempted to arrest him. There is no way to confirm that contact.
Another
example is Amedy Coulibaly, who carried out an attack on a Jewish store
in Paris in January. In a video filmed days before the attack,
Coulibaly pledged allegiance to al-Baghdadi -- but he had no known
contact with ISIS.
Such individuals are
bent on violence -- acquiring weapons and planning an attack in ISIS'
name -- even if ISIS entities thousands of miles away are unaware of,
much less directing their plans. So it was with the attack on a clinic
in San Bernardino.
Syed Rizwan Farook
and his wife Tashfeen Malik had made multiple attempts to reach out to
militant groups overseas, but eventually pledged allegiance to ISIS
before carrying out their attack.
Challenge of tracking lone wolves
There
are others whose plans seem more vague and aspirational. Nader Saadeh,
20, was arrested in New Jersey in August and charged with seeking to
provide material support for terrorism. In 2013, he allegedly discussed
with a friend building a "small army... it will probably be like 2-4 yrs
from now, we will be in the prime of our lives." He had also discussed
going to Syria. Saadeh pleaded guilty to conspiring with others to
provide material support to ISIS.
29 photos: San Bernardino shooting
Also
in August, a newlywed couple from Mississippi were arrested as they
planned to travel to Syria. They had discussed their travel plans with
undercover federal agents -- mistaking them for ISIS recruiters,
according to the criminal complaint.
In
July, two men were arrested in Italy after posting online messages that
appeared to threaten attacks on targets in Milan. But the prosecutor
said they had not yet moved "into an active phase."
Monitoring
and ultimately prosecuting such individuals requires considerable
resources. But whether they should be described as ISIS-inspired,
apparently having no contact with the group and only vaguely aware of
its ideology, is debatable. Some might be described as gullible
fantasists. Others may indeed be on the verge of committing an attack
such as that in San Bernardino.
The map of ISIS
The
map of ISIS' global reach can be read in many ways. There is no
doubting its lure to a fringe of extremist Muslims and Muslim converts,
but there is also the risk of overstating its current capabilities.
The group is not beyond opportunism in taking credit for attacks in which it may have had no role.
Within
its heartland, it has shown itself capable of a sophisticated mix of
conventional military action and classic terror tactics such as suicide
bombings. It has demonstrated remarkable expertise with explosives and
can offer training in everything from encryption to weapons handling. It
has money and even the ability to forge highly convincing Syrian
passports.
Perhaps the greatest anxiety
is that as ISIS comes under greater pressure in its heartland, it will
export terror attacks with greater frequency and intensity -- seeking to
open new fronts in Europe and North America, stepping up its
encouragement of "lone wolf" attacks, and trying to provoke a backlash
against Muslims.
end quote from:
Map of ISIS: Growing reach... but a complex picture(CNN)The
map of ISIS "activity" makes for frightening reading. The group or its
affiliates claim conspiracies and attacks on four …
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