2022: Cheap flights, more rail and hands-free cars
updated 8:45 AM EST, Tue November 27, 2012
Bombardier's CS100 is expected to
begin service in 2014. It follows aircraft design trends toward lighter
materials and more efficient engines which allow significant fuel
savings. Click through this gallery to see conceptual designs for
fuel-saving planes of the future.
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Fuel-saving aircraft of the near future
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- In 2022 airlines will charge for just about every possible option, experts fear
- Low-cost carriers may create "super-elite" class of fliers
- Get ready to share the road with driverless cars, automotive experts say
- U.S. inter-city railroads are poised to expand, offering more travel options
Get ready to share the
road with driverless, computer-controlled cars. Prepare to join millions
of travelers who will start riding trains to nearby cities. Expect to
be nickel-and-dimed (even more) by the airlines. Don't be surprised to
see sleek new airline designs that run cleaner and burn less fuel,
thanks to new materials and innovative technology.
In the air, the trend
toward low-cost airlines and so-called "a la carte" pricing will likely
become the accepted norm, as fliers finally accept a business model that
reminds us: nothing is free and everything costs. By 2022, say experts,
the consumer war over having to pay for every airline perk and option
from pillows to snacks to window seats to legroom will be over.
Number crunchers will win. Grumblers will lose.
"It's the unbundling of
services," said airline analyst Mike Miller. "Passengers are choosing
the airlines that have the most fees, most often. These carriers are the
most profitable and the most full."
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Opponents fear the new
hyper-itemized normal will create a group of "super elite" passengers
who are treated very differently than the rest of us. More on that
later.
On the ground, we'll see
amazing technological strides in the development of self-driving cars
during the next decade. But America's roads and bridges will continue to
suffer from much needed repairs, according to the American Society of Civil Engineers. But hey, at least we'll be able to multitask while our cars are dodging potholes.
Across the nation's
sprawling rail lines, experts anticipate several states from coast to
coast will continue investing in trains that connect regional cities.
And the future looks bright, analysts say, for the nation's urban light
rail and tramway systems. We'll get to that in a minute.
First, let's use four quick stats to remind ourselves what a big deal the transportation industry is:
Planes: By 2022, the FAA predicts more than a billion U.S. airline passengers.
Cars and trucks:
Washington says registered passenger vehicles number above 250 million
(for perspective, the entire U.S. population numbers more than 312
million).
Trains: Amtrak ridership set an all-time record this year: more than 31 million passengers.
The 'race to the bottom'
Prospects for the airline industry look good, but still, some experts are worried.
Airline consumer expert Brett Snyder of crankyflier.com
fears continued success of low-cost carriers could hurt consumers in
the long run. Low-cost airlines are growing fast and raking in big
profits by charging ultra-cheap fares while nickel-and-diming passengers
to pay for even the most basic extras.
Europe's RyanAir offers an extreme example. The airline's CEO has talked about charging his passengers to use on-board toilets and creating standing-room-only sections on some flights.
Go inside Boeing's new 787 Dreamliner
Google's self driving Prius
How efficient is Japanese rail?
California high-speed rail to nowhere?
The danger, said Miller,
is creating two types of fliers: the "haves" -- "super-elite frequent
fliers who get everything" -- and the "have-nots" -- passengers in
economy "who get nothing."
That business model sounds familiar, said Miller, of the American Aviation Institute.
"CEOs are earning more money than ever and the average wage is not
going up. Now we're seeing that mirrored by airline service. That's a
little troubling because the coach passenger seems to be always getting
less."
By 2022, fliers will
likely have accepted the idea that they must pay fees for every perk and
service which, a generation earlier, was included in passenger fares.
Snyder is a fan of
extreme low-cost carriers like RyanAir, but in general, he doesn't want
to see the entire industry using that model. He believes passengers want
choices and, to some degree, a la carte provides that. It's a system
that allows passengers to choose the services they want. Some fliers may
not be able to get their heads around it because they're stuck in the
past.
"A lot of people who
don't like this trend have in their minds the way it used to be," said
Snyder. "They think that's how it should be."
If the low-cost model
becomes the standard for success, Snyder warns, other airlines seeking
profits will follow, triggering a "race to the bottom," as every airline
tries to "slash and burn costs and do everything they can to make more
money by cutting back. I think that would be really unfortunate."
Denver-based Frontier
Airlines "is the hope for the future," said Snyder. "They're trying to
become a low-cost carrier, but they have more amenities on board,
although you do have to pay for them, such as live TV and extra legroom.
They're trying to offer a bit more to people."
Expect more air
passengers to demand Wi-Fi and personalized entertainment choices in the
coming years. Airlines may provide access to movies stored on a digital
media server aboard the aircraft, or, a third-party website where
passengers can watch video now or later after they de-plane. Power
outlets for personal devices ought to become standard on all passenger
seats, say experts, not just in first class.
But some choices, such
as seating, shouldn't be limited to all or nothing. Regular carriers,
say analysts, should offer more "in-between choices," like Delta's
Economy Comfort or United's Economy Plus, with more legroom and other
amenities for a few dollars extra.
The coming 10 years will
also affect airports. Some larger markets are developing additional
airports which will ease traffic congestion. But smaller cities may be
at risk. Many regional airlines may abandon some small towns, as tiny
airports get squeezed by rising fuel prices and shrinking profits.
What can pilots expect?
Changes in federal rules will require additional and more expensive
training for new pilots, many of whom will earn a starting salary of
about $20,000 a year, said Miller. Experts fear the result will be a
temporary shortage of airline pilots, which might force airlines to take
on the cost of pilot training. That expense likely would be passed on
to consumers.
New equipment
On the bright side, the
coming decade will bring more fuel efficient aircraft. Boeing's new 787
Dreamliner started U.S. routes this month.
Canadian aircraft maker Bombardier's much anticipated CSeries
boasts a variable speed, multi-gear engine that aims to save 20% more
fuel than its competitors. The first CSeries plane is expected to begin
service in 2014.
But what about a little
further down the road? At NASA, experts asked a handful of top aircraft
designers for their ideas on green airplanes of the future.
Firms like Lockheed
Martin offered cool box-shaped wing designs while Boeing and Northrop
Grumman played with fascinating "flying wings." Although the NASA
program was really just an idea-sharing brainstorming project, some of
these futuristic design ideas could very well make the jump to reality
by 2025 NASA said, if economic conditions allow.
Whether fuel savings
from efficient airliners will be passed on to consumers in the next 10
years depends on a lot of factors. It's possible, said experts, as long
as passenger traffic is high and fuel prices are stable.
Letting go of the wheel
California and Nevada have passed laws authorizing driverless or self-driving vehicles, signaling the beginning of a new era.
These
computer-controlled cars and trucks are coming, whether or not we feel
comfortable about it. The idea is to allow computers to coordinate the
safest and most efficient speed and route for each car, thereby reducing
wrecks and traffic jams. Nevada and California require the cars to have
a human behind the wheel who can take control of the vehicle at any
time.
In five years or less, non-experimental self-driving cars are expected to hit California's public roads, says driverless car developer Google. Computer-coordinated vehicles could help cut the estimated 4.2 billion hours Americans spend each year stuck in traffic, according to the society of engineers. All that time costs $710 per driver.
Volvo is working with the European Union on
what it calls Road Trains, several self-driving cars connected and
coordinated by a wireless signal from a lead vehicle, which is driven by
a human. The idea aims to cut highway congestion and save fuel. Bottom
line: fewer traffic jams, less pollution, cheaper travel. Road Trains
could hit Europe's highways as soon as 2022, according to the European
Union.
For Volvo scientist
Jonas Ekmark, the driverless era began when he was testing the Road
Train. He remembers what it felt like the first time he took his hands
off the wheel, effectively putting a computer in the driver's seat.
That was really a strange experience.
Jonas Ekmark, technical expert active safety, Volvo
Jonas Ekmark, technical expert active safety, Volvo
"That was really a
strange experience," Ekmark recalled with a chuckle. "I let go and then
after 30 seconds I was like, 'and now what?'"
Eventually he felt
comfortable enough to take his eyes off the road to read and answer
e-mail on his smartphone. "After a while you adapt to it and you feel
like you're on an aircraft or a bus or something."
Reading e-mail while sitting in the driver's seat may be safe enough, said Ekmark, but sleeping is probably not a good option.
If something goes wonky
during a Road Train trip, the system triggers a very loud alarm along
with a "quite strong vibration" in the driver's seat. The driver then
has about 10 seconds to take control of the vehicle and leave the Road
Train.
Road Trains could be a
safe stepping stone toward the day when all cars are autonomously
self-driven and not reliant on a lead vehicle, Ekmark said.
Rail riders
Americans are
increasingly embracing train travel. Need proof? More passengers rode
Amtrak this year than ever before in its 41-year history, the train
company said. And there's no reason to believe the trend won't continue,
say experts.
Better rail service and
increased funding offers America its best chance in generations to get
off the highways and get on the rails, according to analysts.
Regional inter-city rail
systems in California, Illinois, North Carolina, Virginia and elsewhere
have been invigorated by 2009's federal stimulus legislation, said
transportation expert Yonah Freemark, who runs TransportPolitic.com.
"Those investments are
going to be built out and people are going to see better service on
inter-city rail lines across the country," he said." And you'll see
increasing ridership." That's good news for the nation's energy
situation. Rail travel uses 20% less energy than traveling by car, according to the ASCE.
Still, U.S. train
ridership ranks very low compared with other nations. The number of
passengers on Amtrak and commuter rail total about 500 million a year,
Freemark said. Compare that to the United Kingdom, a country five times
smaller than the United States, which counted 1.35 billion rail riders
last year. Other nations where railroads carry more than a billion
passengers a year include Germany, India, China, France, Russia and
South Korea, according to the International Union of Railways.
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Hands free phone sounds great. But hands free cars I can do without. But, I suppose for people who don't drive a car this might be better than staying at home. Also, riding in a car when you can't drive you likely could tell the car when to stop somewhere to eat or go to the bathroom or look at a view or at a motel or whatever as well. Also, if someone else needed the car you could tell the car to drive over and pick them up while you did something else. And because of that you might need less cars in a household because of that. So, that might save energy in regard to building so many cars also. So, maybe it would go towards quality rather than quantity in cars and trucks.
However, in regard to trucks, what if all the truck drivers of large trucks on earth were fired and all the big trucks were robot trucks and all taxi drivers were fired and were robot taxis? I think I would be kind of scared to drive around those trucks and taxis. If you have ever programmed computers you would know what I'm talking about. A perfect computer has never been built and likely never will. Compared to a computer, people can be much more perfect in many ways still. If you were in trouble would you summon an advanced calculator or a person? In the future you might not have a choice.
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