Russia Hedges Its Bets with Syria
Syrian
National Council representative, spokeswoman Basma Kodmani seen through
a TV camera viewfinder answers a question during a news conference in
Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, July 10, 2012. 
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July 10, 2012
As Syria's main opposition
coalition prepares to send a high-level delegation to Moscow, Russia
appeared to signal it may eventually distance itself from President
Bashar al-Assad's embattled government.
The Syrian National Council, the main opposition umbrella group in
exile, is due to hold exploratory talks Wednesday with Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov at his invitation.
Russian leaders have repeatedly blocked any foreign military
intervention in Syria's nearly 17-month-old uprising, and have shielded
Assad from international censure. But the Kremlin recently has begun to
express impatience with its key Middle East ally and is reaching out to
anti-government activists in order to maintain influence after Assad's
potential exit.
Still, in a sign of its ambivalent position, Russia Tuesday sent at
least five warships to its strategic naval base at the Syrian port of
Tartus. Interfax reported that more vessels from the Baltic Fleet, based
in St. Petersburg, are preparing to join the flotilla.
The White House said it was aware of the deployment but does not see cause for concern.
Khalid Saleh, an executive SNC member and part of the delegation
meeting Lavrov, told VOA "it is becoming very apparent to the Russian
side that Assad's days are numbered and that's the reason they are
starting this dialogue [with us]." He said the SNC intends to probe
Russian officials on what he called the post-Assad transition. "We'll
see Russia's stance on that and if they have specifics they want to put
forward," Saleh said of Wednesday's talks.
While Russia is now willing to speak with both sides in the Syrian
conflict, its motives for doing so are markedly different from those of
Western powers.
David Satter, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, told VOA Russia
is fighting to maintain regional influence in the one Middle Eastern
country "that can be regarded as a Russian client state...and where they
have a [naval] base." He said the Kremlin is preparing for the
possibility of abandoning Assad if he loses power or if it becomes clear
he cannot hold onto it.
With the conflict on the brink of civil war - the Britain-based Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights puts the death toll at more than 17,000
people - Assad's fate will be determined by the balance of power within
the country. Recent developments on the ground do not appear to bode
well for the Syrian leader and have emboldened anti-government fighters
led by the Free Syrian Army.
The SNC's Saleh said pro-Assad forces are losing control over many
parts of the country, and that the number of defections "has increased
tremendously" of late. He said government troops have surrounded the
eastern city of Deir Ezzor for the past 18 days but are unable to enter
the town. "Some 40 percent of the army there has defected," Saleh said,
putting the morale of pro-Assad forces at "a historical low."
VOA cannot confirm events on the ground in Syria because the government
severely restricts access for international journalists.
On Monday, an official from Russia's state arms exporter said Moscow
will halt shipments of new weapons to the Syrian government, while
continuing to honor existing military contracts. U.S. and allied
officials acknowledge Syrian rebels have been receiving arms supplies
from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf emirate of Qatar.
Satter said arms transfers in a civil conflict, while significant, are
not decisive, noting that "refurbished helicopters from Russia may be
insufficient to turn the tide of battle."
Saleh points to recent FSA gains as "the reason the Russians want to
talk after refusing to do so for many months. I hope we'll see a real
change from the Russians. We'll see what they have to offer tomorrow."
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