begin quote from:What turnout in Florida and Wisconsin says about the political moment

There is evidence that some Republicans switched sides

While Republicans worry about turning out their lower-propensity base, Tuesday’s elections also flashed another warning sign: the potential for considerable crossover vote, with Republican voters casting ballots for Democratic candidates.

More than 36,000 registered Republicans cast ballots in Escambia County in Florida’s 1st District, but Republican candidate Jimmy Patronis received only 35,829 votes. This means that even if he received no votes at all from registered Democrats or those registered with no party affiliation, he lost at minimum a few hundred Republican votes. If Patronis had received 5% of Democratic votes and split all other non-Republican voters evenly, he would have lost nearly a fifth of registered Republican votes.

This dynamic played out across the district. Shortly before polls closed, reports from county election officials suggested that nearly 58% of the ballots cast in the race came from registered Republicans, yet Patronis ultimately carried only 56.9% of the vote.

That wasn’t the case in the 2024 general election. Republican candidates then received a vote share that exceeded registered Republican turnout. In Escambia County, 50.8% of votes came from registered Republicans, while Republican candidates Matt Gaetz, Rick Scott and Donald Trump received 57.1%, 60.9%, and 59.0% of the vote, respectively.