Intuitive fred888

Tuesday, February 10, 2026

What countries are likely to use Nuclear weapons first? I think Israel, Russia, Pakistan and India will be the first to use nuclear weapons

Why?

Because all these countries are very unstable right now. I think the first place to see nuclear weapons go off would be Israel nuking Tehran and turning it into a crater. Where it would go from there is anyone's guess.

Russia because of Putin might turn Ukraine into a Nuclear Crater at any point too or he might nuke Germany or other European countries also. Also, I think the cultural divide between India and Pakistan is very great and either country could easily nuke the other.

I think China would likely be the last country to use nuclear weapons because of the Chinese psychology which is that China has always been too big and too ungovernable and they have so many mini-revolutions inside China every year it is like 1500 mini-revolutions take place where thousands of people are wiped out by the Chinese Government and they desperately try to hide that they are killing their people by the thousands in order to continue the status quo of the Chinese Government. For all these reasons I think China is the least likely to use nuclear weapons first. So, their weapons likely are mostly for defensive purposes (at least right now). However, all this could change on a dime with today's world Conditions.

On the Brink of a New Arms Race?

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The New York Times

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I grew up in Germany at the tail end of the Cold War. Fears of a nuclear attack were part of my childhood, along with record players and mullets. Since then, when I’ve thought about nuclear proliferation, it has mostly been in the context of countries like North Korea and Iran. I certainly did not see another nuclear arms race coming that included democracies.

But, as my colleagues David Sanger and William Broad write below, nukes are back, with a cascade of consequences for global security.

The last major nuclear treaty between the United States and Russia just expired. Our national security correspondent David E. Sanger explains how we got here.

The end of the arms control era

By David E. Sanger and William J. Broad

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Last week, the United States and Russia allowed their last nuclear arms control treaty, known as New START, to expire. For the first time since 1972, the superpowers have no limits on the size or structure of their arsenals.

President Trump has said he wants to negotiate a new agreement — “a new, improved, and modernized treaty,” as he described it on social media recently. But he said nothing about freezing American and Russian arsenals at current levels, leaving open the possibility of a renewed arms race.

In fact, the U.S., Russia and China have been preparing for that possibility. And some U.S. allies, uneasy about whether they can count on the U.S. “nuclear umbrella,” have begun talking about establishing their own nuclear forces.

As Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi, two of America’s leading nuclear strategists, wrote recently, “Nuclear weapons are back with a vengeance.”

‘No one wants to discuss Swedish nuclear weapons’

It’s “miraculous” that the world has as few nuclear weapon states as it currently does, said Graham Allison, a Harvard political scientist.

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“They’re not too hard to make,” J. Robert Oppenheimer said of atomic bombs in 1945. “They’ll be universal if people wish to make them universal.” In 1963, President John F. Kennedy predicted that by 1975 there could be up to 20 nuclear-armed states.

In fact, there are currently just nine: Britain, China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia and the U.S.

A central factor behind this restricted outcome has been the U.S. “nuclear umbrella” — the promise that Washington would come to the defense of allies if they ever came under nuclear attack. This strategy has kept most American allies from building their own nuclear weapons.

But the U.S. strategy is under fire.

Trump often portrays allies as freeloaders, and has cast doubt on whether he would use nuclear weapons to protect them.

The allies have gotten the message. Last year, President Emmanuel Macron of France warned that Europe needed to prepare for America’s retreat. He said he was willing to discuss extending the protection of France’s nuclear arsenal to its European allies.

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Poland’s prime minister said his nation had to “reach for opportunities related to nuclear weapons.” And early last month, as Trump’s threats to take over Greenland grew louder, Stockholm’s leading newspaper called for a joint Nordic nuclear arsenal.

“No one wants to discuss Swedish nuclear weapons,” it declared, “but we must.”

Moves and countermoves

Already, there are signs that the Trump administration is planning to break out of the numeric limits of New START in ways that could set off a new arms race. For instance, the U.S. is planning to increase the number of warheads that can be carried by its nuclear-armed submarines.

To Trump administration officials, this planned increase puts foes on notice: If they attempt a nuclear strike, the retaliation could be larger than at any time in years. But there’s a counterargument. America’s deployment of new weapons could fuel an arms race. And U.S. rivals are already making their own moves, including some that would make it impossible for Trump’s “Golden Dome” project to intercept enemy missiles.

In October, President Vladimir Putin of Russia announced a successful test of the Poseidon, an underwater drone meant to cross an ocean, detonate a thermonuclear warhead and raise a radioactive tsunami powerful enough to shatter a coastal city. He also seems to have conducted at least one test launch to prepare for placing a nuclear weapon in space, which might destroy fleets of American satellites.

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China is also developing novel weapons: In 2021, it fired a hypersonic missile into orbit that circled the globe before deploying a maneuverable glide vehicle that could deliver a nuclear weapon anywhere on earth. But for the time being, it is the speed with which China’s conventional nuclear forces are growing that has seized experts’ attention.

A person in a dark green military uniform stands. Behind them, a large, dark green missile with four black nozzles is on a transport vehicle. — Chinese missiles on display at a military parade in Beijing in September. Credit...Tingshu Wang/Reuters

Every effort by the Trump administration to engage China in some kind of discussion of its nuclear capabilities has been shut down by Beijing.

That leaves the U.S. with a choice: It can push ahead with larger arsenals and new, specialized weapons to keep pace with Beijing and Moscow, or negotiate a broader deal of the kind Trump has talked about.

Many among arms control experts agree with elements of Trump’s argument that New START aged poorly. A new, better treaty would cover both new technologies and additional countries — starting with China.

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Trump wrote last week he wants to begin such negotiations, but he offered no specifics. The Chinese have little interest in arms control, it seems, until their arsenal is roughly the size of Washington’s and Moscow’s. And so strategists instead see a looming surge in moves and countermoves around the globe that could, eventually, lead to a crisis.

“We’re seeing the end to an era of arms control,” said Erin D. Dumbacher, a senior security fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Read the full story here.

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Credit...Théo Giacometti for The New York Times

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An old conspiracy theory gets new life in India

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