For those of you too young to remember the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, I would like to share this thought. The Soviet Union, the core of which now is Russia attacked Afghanistan and likely would have taken next, Iran, during the 1980s.
Since the basis of Russia's Governmental wealth is now nationalized oil, I believe oil is their goal now as well. They have watched the United States move into Iraq because they believe the U.S. wanted oil. Russia sees nothing wrong with taking Georgia, and possibly Azerbaijan on the way to taking Iran. They are emulating the United States in this. However, they must also reckon with Europe and the United States in order to do this. I don't think China will stand idly by in all this either as they have many oil interests in Iran as well. So now Georgia and any country between Russia and Iran are now in jeopardy of being overrun in a new Russian offensive. It has been said by Georgia that if Russia is allowed to do this then all of Europe is also in jeopardy potentially as well.
added Tuesday August 12th 2008. It is my present belief that it is all about opportunities and what is cost effective for Russia. If Russia can get away with taking Georgia and the other countries between itself and Iran, it will do so. If it is easier to sell Iran nuclear technology like they are doing now they will do that. If the opportunity arises in the next 10 years to move all the way to Iran and to take Iran and its oil they will do that. It is all about what is cost effective both economically, militarily and in all ways? Since the basis of what is now working for the Russian Government is nationalized oil, looking for new oil to nationalize is a given and anyone who doesn't think so is just very naive.
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