Keynes Argument regarding Business investments

The reason is the behavior of another, rarely mentioned but very reliable indicator: Real Gross Private Domestic Investment.  Keynes argued in the General Theory that business investment–by which he meant the creation of physical capital like factories and not simply buying financial assets–was the key to the business cycle (FYI, Keynes and Keynesian are not the same thing--long story!). History has borne him out. Every recession since World War II save one has been preceded by a decline in physical investment (that one exception being related to the end of the Vietnam War). It is the one and only variable I monitor religiously.

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Why Trade War Plus Yield Curve Equals Recession
In other words if you see a decline in physical investment you will also see a recession.The one exception to this relates to the end of the Viet Nam war (and if I'm not mistaken The Arab Oil Embargo of the 1970s).So, it's likely the quadrupling of oil prices by OPEC changed the rules then.
If you want to prove this theory look around the world at all countries. If there is a decline in physical investments  in the  countries you are studying  those countries likely are already in a recession  (if you are trying to prove this theory to yourselves).
However, it has already been proven by all recessions (except at the end of the Viet Nam War).







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