One one level the Democratic party will likely cease to be (as well as democracy in the U.S. itself) if they don't shut the government down. Someone asked me about the government jobs Trump might end if the government shuts down and I said that Trump is only doing this to scare the Democrats into doing nothing for anyone.
So, I think it's 80% to 90% that the shutdown will actually occur and could last weeks or months like the shutdown did under Clinton and Gingrich in late 1995 and early 1996.
However, the other side of this is that Putin likely could use this government shutdown for attacking Europe in various ways with Drones and Missiles.
Right now he is just jamming Airports with Drones so planes cannot take off in Europe various places but if it changed likely it would be Putin bombing Munitions Factories in Europe with drones next. If that didn't stop the EU and NATO countries from supporting Ukraine then I think he might start to target Civilian centers like High Rise Apartments basically anywhere in Europe.
Putin cannot stay in power unless he wins this war now because too many Russians have died and too many resources have been expended in all ways by Russians to give up. So, he has to win to stay in power at all. This is the real problem here we are all dealing with.
However, the rest of the world has to stop him from winning anyway that they can. So, this appears to be what is happening really now.
It's possible that Putin may threaten all of Europe and the U.S. with nuclear Weapons. However, we likely have more nuclear weapons than he does. So, setting off nukes would be a never ending process once Putin Started which would likely end all Civilization on earth like it did on our 1st timeline.
We presently are in our 2nd timeline where all civilization didn't end on September 11th 2001 for around 4000 years until around 6000 AD when something similar to Queen Elizabeth 1 of England happened in Switzerland which was the dawning of a new civilization. So, it was similar to around 1600 England then on the first timeline.
Unless Putin is removed from power this war could go on for years and years now and expanding into EU and NATO Countries which would look a lot like we have seen already in Ukraine if this happens.
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